1. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC BMRC coupled modelling: Oscar Alves, Guomin Wang, Neville Smith, Aihong Zhong, Faina Tseitkin, Andrew Marshall BMRC Model Development (NWP, Lilia Deschamps) BMRC Climate Dynamics (Rob Colman) CSIRO Marine Research (OGCM) Andreas Schiller, Stuart Godfrey, Gary Meyers, Peter McIntosh, Russ Fieddler

2. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Biases in: POAMA (operational coupled seasonal forecast model) 9 month forecasts Climate Version: 100 yr run discard first 20 yrs, no flux correction

3. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC GCM Components Atmospheric model BAM3 configuration Resolution: T47L17 Radiation: Lacis and Hansen (1974), Schwarzkopf and Fels (1991), Convection: Tiedtke (1989): moisture convergence and CAPE closures Land surface processes: Manabe and Holloway (1975). Prognostic Cloud formulation: Rotstayn (1997) Surface Fluxes: Louis (1983), McAvaney and Hess (1996) Resolution: meridional 0.5° within 8° of the equator, Zonal 2°; 12 levels in the top 185 metres. Chen mixing scheme penetrtative short wave radiation tidal mixing parameterisation in the Indonesian region careful representation of islands and straits in the Indonesian region Ocean model ACOM2 configuration

4. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Operational Forecast Set Up Ocean initial conditionsDaily Optimum Interpolation Atmos. initial conditionsFrom BoM operational NWP model Ensemble –9 month forecast everyday (within 1 day of real time) Anomalies from Model Climatology –Hindcast 1983-2002 –One per month, AMIP atmospheric initial condition –Assimilated oceanic initial condition

5. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC SST Anomaly Correlation Skill with Lead Time Green - model Red - anomaly persistence

6. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Decay of 2002 El Nino Forecasts available at BOM Dec 2002 SCO POAMA NASA NCEP ECMWF

7. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC SST drift: Problem with surface flux and clouds in stand-alone AGCM Little impact on east Pacific drift from big changes to StratCu:suggests resolution problem near Andes Convection: Changes to convection parameterization improve intraseasonal variability and ITCZs in uncoupled run Impacts coupled behavior (perhaps more realstic) Improvements to ITCZ don’t carry over to coupled run

8. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC SST Drift

9. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Bias 100 yr climate run

10. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Surface short wave from AMIP run of AGCM SRB “observed” Surf SW

11. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Drift at 6 month lead AGCM Net Flux What ocean wants Diff

12. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Sub-surface drift suggests problem equatorial winds

13. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Enhanced sub Strat Cu mixing Erroneous mixing above Strat Cu

14. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC

15. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Tropical intraseasonal variability Moisture convergence closure NCEP re-analysis 30 days 60 days CAPE Closure

16. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Mean Prec CAPE Mean Precip Moist Convergence

17. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Annual mean prec coupled climate run

18. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC

19. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Zonal wind anomaly along equator ObsMoisture closureCAPE Closure

20. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC SST anomaly along equator Forecast starting 1 st June 1997 ObsOld: Moisture closureNew: CAPE Closure

21. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC

22. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC

23. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC

24. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC

25. WWW.BOM.GOV.AU/BMRC Latent Heat Flux NCEP AGCM