1. Uncertain times: international mobility of atoll dwellers in the central Pacific Richard Bedford, Charlotte Bedford and John Corcoran University of Waikato and University of Adelaide 16 th International Metropolis Conference, “Migration Futures: Perspectves on Global Changes”, Azores, 12-16 September 2011

2. A context: uncertain times  Disappearing islands? Futures for atolls and reef islands in the central Pacific under conditions of climate change and sea level rise.  A “youth bulge” and social disorder? Futures for employment and economic development in atolls and reef islands in the central Pacific in the 21st century

3. A platform: the Pacific Forum In his address to the Pacific Forum on 7 September 2011 in Auckland, Anote Tong, President of Kiribati, raised the notion of a floating island as one of the strategies for dealing with adverse effects of global warming and associated environmental change. Tong said he had seen models for a $2 billion Tong said he had seen models for a $2 billion floating island, which he likened to a giant offshore oil platform. He said while it sounded "like something from science fiction," every idea had to be considered given the dire situation facing Kiribati, a low-lying archipelago with a population of 103,000.

4. A disappearing country? Other ideas to combat rising ocean levels include building a series of seawalls at a cost of nearly $1 billion, Tong said, and relocating some residents to other Pacific nations. But he said he couldn't imagine a day that Kiribati was abandoned. "Would Kiribati disappear?" he said. "Never. Never.” And technically it won’t because one island, Banaba, is a raised coral island – a source of phosphate in the past.

5. A paradox Elizabeth Thomas-Hope reminded us yesterday that “while the freedom to move/migrate is important, the freedom not to have to migrate is also important. The freedom to remain in the home island has long been jeopardized by economic and political crises in many places, but added to this is the risk of major environmental change, due - at least in part - to global warming, that will increasingly reduce the freedom of populations to remain in their home location if they wish or need to do so.”

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14. Futures for youth? In 2004 a group of Pacific leaders strongly advised everyone to: “Listen to the needs and aspirations of the burgeoning population of young people in the region, and recognise the impact of bigger and more youthful populations on the resources required for education and vocational training, healthcare and job opportunities”

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16. Youthful populations Country % tot pop 0-14 yrs % tot pop 15-24 yrs Kiribati: 2005 36.720.9 Kiribati: 2030 28.818.3 New Zealand: 2006 New Zealand: 2030 20.811.914.57.8

17. Kiribati’s population Census year TotalUrban 194731,500 3,100 (10%) 1968198547,70063,900 10,600 (22%) 21,100 (33%) 20052030205092,500137,000163,000 40,300 (44%) 75,400 (55%) 98,000 (60%)

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23. Tradition of overseas migration  Labour migration, phosphate islands -- Banaba (Ocean Is) and Nauru  Resettlement, Fiji, Solomons  Plantation labour, Vanuatu and other Pacific  Seafarers  Temporary work and settlement, NZ

28. Kiribati populations: New Zealand CensusBirthplaceEthnic 1986123141 1991225180 19962001318504330540 2006822969

29. I-Kiribati in New Zealand CensusIsland-bornNZ-born 198699 42 (30%) 1991102 78 (43%) 19962001189309 141 (43%) 231 (43%) 2006597 372 (38%)

30. Immigration policy changes, NZ  1986 Immigration Policy Review -- visa- waiver status conferred on Kiribati and Tuvalu  1992 Work Permit schemes established  2002 Visa-waiver status and work permit schemes replaced by Pacific Access Category  2007 Recognised Seasonal Employer “kick- start” state

31. Net migration, 1979-2011 March years PLTTotal 1979-20115324,192 1982-8631120 1987-9170280 1992-961996-01131906001,270 2002-062007-1124167630817

32. Approved visas, 2002-11 Visa category 2002-62007-11 Visitor1,3432,785 Student442625 Temporary work (RSE) 618 (0) 1,409 (319) Residence Skilled/business Skilled/business4412366129 Family Family International (PAC) International (PAC)69 328 (276) 106 526 (478)

33. A traditional strategy: minimizing risk by investing in several strategies simultaneously  Adaptation of atoll environment  Employment off-shore  Raising international awareness of global warming- related changes  Retaining independence and keeping open all options  Maintaining a commitment to an atoll homeland