1. Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation

2. Community Vulnerability and Adaptation Measuring and mapping vulnerability Combined indicators Risk/stress mapping Spatial intersection/interaction Examining adaptation strategies Contingent behavior

3. Vulnerability: Existing Studies Agreement on idea but variety of frameworks Common approach Aggregate measure (at community level) A bundle of indicators (Cutter Model) Demographic, economic, ethnic, political, cultural etc. Common analysis tools: Factor extraction, cluster analysis etc.

4. Vulnerability and Intervention Mapping: ESDA Approach Measurement is not enough Its about understanding Where are the ‘hotspots’? Are we serving the communities in need? Where should we prioritize our efforts first?

5. Spatial non-stationarity: VPM model WUI vs. rural (affluent vs. poor)

6. Issues with existing measures Too general: Vulnerable to what? Weather station record vs. perceived effect Assumption of homogenous effect: Does poverty always necessarily translate to vulnerability? Do income and ethnicity have the same marginal effect? Can not establish causation: little policy implication Poor predictive power Unit issue: Areal unit (neighborhood) vs. social unit (i.e., fishermen)

7. Need for a specific/robust function of vulnerability Specific (to hazard in context): Vulnerability (drought, heat etc.) DDs vs. avg. temp. Weighted (for vulnerability factors): Lit. review (significance, effect size etc.) V = f(p1.X1+p2.X2+p3.X3+….pn.Xn) Comprehensive yet flexible: Intervention variable

8. Example case Broad context: Climate change Specific context: vulnerability to heat effect Heat waves, illness, death tolls Socio-income factors Resources (AC, housing condition etc.) Intervention variables (i.e., neighborhood canopy coverage) Policy question: Will an investment in urban/community forestry programs result in reducing the vulnerability? Could a roadside plantation bring a larger benefit than subsidy for AC installation?

9. Vulnerability and Adaptation: survey based approach Change in resource condition Knowledge, perception Contingent behavior IVI How important? Vulnerable? Impacted yet?

10. Highly important Not at all important Highly vulnerableNot at all vulnerable Not at all affected Slightly affected Example context: Heat effect

11. Highly important Not at all important Highly vulnerableNot at all vulnerable Slightly affected Highly affected Example context: Trout decline due to stream temp.

12. Assessing adaptation How will people adapt to change List of potential reactions/strategies Decision tree Contingent reaction Probability Contingent impact

13. Trout decline in GA site Continue fishing hereMove to other places Stop fishingContinue fishing Fish for troutFish for non-troutOther places in GAOut of state (TN, NC, SC) For TroutFor non-trout Move to headwaterWait until water gets cooler Skip warmer months (July, Aug.) Make fewer trips Hunting Hiking Biking Bird/nature viewing ATV Outdoor team sports Golf Target shooting Canoeing/Kayaking Motor boating Camping Understanding Adaptation: Contingent Behavior Approach

14. Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation