1. Globoil 29 September 2015 www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange

2.  An innovative international brokerage business specializing in physical agricultural commodities with offices in Montreux, Madrid, Istanbul, Hamburg, Georgetown, Mumbai  Product origination: Black Sea (Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, EU)  Destination: consumer business in the Mediterranean to Turkey, through the Middle East to North Africa, Spain, Italy and Greece & SE Asia  A diverse client base including farmers, originators, trading houses, importers, processors and consumers. Cereals Wheat, Corn, Barley, Rye, Millet Oilseeds Soybeans, Sunflower seeds, Rapeseeds, Linseeds Feedstuffs Sunflower meal, Rape meal, Wheat Bran, Rice bran, Sugar Beet Pulp, Soybean meal Pulses Yellow peas, Feed peas, Chick Peas Vegetable oils Sunflower oil, Rape oil, Soya oil www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

3. Global Agri Outlook www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

4. Agenda  Macro economic factors  Supply  Logistics  Demand  Technology  Conclusion www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

5. Macro economic factors  Geo Politics  Interest rates  FX  Energy Prices  Fund activity www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

6. Geo Politics  China – slowdown / S China sea  India - next motor  Industrial Commodity producers - price hit  Russia – punching above weight  M East – non functioning states, except Iran www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

7. Interest Rates  Global growth China – hard landing / transformation US – energy dividend India - future motor EU – deflation risk like Japan, immigrants?  Fed Policy Employment measure  Inflation / deflation  Ag industry risk www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

8. 35 years Interest Rates – US T Bond (10y) www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

9. FX  Mega Trend  Producer / Consumer effect  US$ / CRB www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

10. US$ Index – 40 years www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

11. FX  Mega Trend  Producer / Consumer effect  US$ / CRB www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

12. US$ / Brazil Real www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 18 June 2015

13. FX  Mega Trend  Producer / Consumer effect  US$ / CRB www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

14. US$ Index / CRB www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 18 June 2015

15. Energy Prices  Changing world flows  Fracking – US exports  OPEC - Saudi  Efficiency / alternatives www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

16. WTI Crude Monthly www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

17. US Natural Gas www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

18. Fund Activity  Mass of money – US$ 350 bln  Asset class  Macro driven - CTA  Market volatility www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

19. Fund Activity www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

20. Fund Returns www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

21. Supply  Weather  Crops - Area / Growing conditions  Farmer selling  Origin competition www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

22. Supply – Weather  N Hemisphere  El Nino Forecast So Far Possibilities www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

23. Weather – El Nino www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

24. Supply  Crops - Area / Growing conditions  Profitability  Switching  Devaluation  Logistics, Rent, Labour, Admin  Oil price Fuel, fertilizer, www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

25. Matif Wheat Monthly www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

26. Soybean / Corn Chicago Monthly (2 nd month) www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

27. Supply  Farmer selling Farm is ‘rich’ Local currency values Technology moving fast  Origin competition Multi origins with good availabilities www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

28. Logistics  Freight rates  US Transport & Elevation capacity - full  Black Sea Floating Elevators Domestic transport  S. America - Strikes / Elevation Capacity www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

29. Baltic Tanker Clean Index Monthly www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

30. Demand  Calorific intake  Biofuels  India  Consumer behaviour / Pipeline effect www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

31. World Grain Demand www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

32. US Biofuels www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

33. Technology  EU / China / Turkey GMO acceptance – France  Euro Fracking  China / Turkey Testing  Quality management – complexity Sustainability Traceability www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

34. Conclusion  ‘Normal’ weather except El Nino  Consistent crops  ‘Normal’ Demand - slowing  Growing stocks - Stocks Use ratios Govt stocks vs Just in time  Role of the market  Price outlook www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

35. Global Stocks – Wheat, Corn, Soybeans (mln mt) www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

36. Stocks / Use Ratios – Global Wheat & Corn (%) www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

37. Stocks / Use Ratios – Global Soybean & Palm (%) www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

38. CBOT Corn Monthly www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

39. CBOT Wheat Monthly www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

40. CBOT Soybeans Monthly www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

41. Crude Palm oil - Monthly www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015

42. Thank you for your attention www.vicorus.ch Jonathan Grange 25 Sep 2015