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Global wheat outlook today & tomorrow Presented by: Emily French Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation “Wheat & Health” Antalya, Turkey 5-8 March.

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Presentation on theme: "Global wheat outlook today & tomorrow Presented by: Emily French Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation “Wheat & Health” Antalya, Turkey 5-8 March."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global wheat outlook today & tomorrow Presented by: Emily French Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation “Wheat & Health” Antalya, Turkey 5-8 March

2 Slow, global supply rebuild Continued, increased competition for demand Global demand engines idling / slowing – but not out of gas Continued shift to a “buyer’s market” Mother Nature remains a dominant influence ConsiliAgra agricultural trends

3 Record world wheat production in 2014/15 – not to repeat in 2015/16 World wheat production (000MT)

4 Global daily grain consumption rates Corn daily consumption rate has increased from 1.668MMT / day in 2000 to a forecasted 2.649MMT / day this year (+59%). Growth accelerated 2005 forward on the back of ethanol. Wheat daily consumption rate has been stagnant – from 1.6MMT / day in 2000 to a forecasted 1.93MMT (+20.6%). Past few years growth has been from feed demand

5 Global daily oilseed consumption rates Soy daily consumption rate has increased from 470.2KMT / day to 776.4KMT / day in 2014 (+65%) Canola daily consumption rate (2 nd axis) has increased from 106.1KMT / day to 189.3KMT / day in 2014 (+78.6%). Sunflower daily consumption rate (2 nd axis) has increased from 63KMT / day to 111.7KMT / day in 2014 (77.3%)

6 Global daily veg oil consumption rates Palm oil daily consumption rate has increased from 64.7KMT / day to 165.6KMT / day in 2014 (+156%) Canola oil daily consumption rate has increased from 36.8KMT / day to ~72KMT / day in 2014 (+95.6%). Soy oil daily consumption rate has increased from 72.5KMT / day to 126.2KMT / day in 2014 (74%)

7 Global grain supply cushions Wheat – its supply cushion is similar to previous years but does show a build trend over the past 3 marketing cycles and much above the 2007/08 low. Corn – its supply cushion is on the build (or stabilizing) with expanded foreign production and a primary demand driver of ethanol now more / less idled

8 Wheat prices have maintained their downtrend since the Black Sea geopolitical “pop” (mid-Dec 2014) as another year of adequate supply and lack of supply threat hang over the market World supply cushion – days of use available to world buyers (101 days vs 97.2 days LY) – remain ample & adequate

9 Continued, increased competition for demand - Increased foreign production, investment and transference of technology

10 Wheat has led global diversification In 2002/03 – the Black Sea forever changed the world wheat trade grid. 12 years later – this same shift is occurring in the world corn trade grid and is growing in influence in world veg oil trade

11 EU expands wheat exports – led by Southeast Europe In search of demand EU exports expand on greater Southeast Europe production

12 World wheat production has been on a steady rise However – given lack of investment / research (compared to corn), world yields are holding steady – more influenced by weather and total area planted

13 The U.S. – while the world’s 2 nd largest wheat exporter is also the world’s wheat storage tank and back stop for world wheat buyers US exports US ending stocks

14 Global demand engines idling / slowing – but not out of gas –

15 Both China and India have shifted from grain net importer roles to producing, consuming and working through existing reserves

16 World feed sector will carry a greater burden to create demand Dietary shift & further growth in emerging economies will drive feed demand in the years ahead Growth in feed wheat demand will be led outside the US and will face greater competition from corn than the past few years

17 Summary: If wheat has a supply dislocation or shock story – it will be found in 2015/16 when more is known about winter wheat conditions, spring planting conditions and Black Sea FSU

18 Black Sea geopolitical risk Northern hemisphere winter wheat condition and spring plantings USD – expected to continue its bullish run India – neutral. Act as a backstop to world wheat values World feed demand – more competition El Nino – back in the headlines World wheat plantings 2015/16 offer only a modest decline Beginning stocks for 2015/16 – 10MMT larger than 2014/15 with majority of that in Black Sea FSU and Europe.

19 About ConsiliAgra ConsiliAgra is a global consulting and brokerage firm providing actionable advice and strategies to those operating and trading within the global grain and oilseeds markets. The firm’s services touch upon every part of the increasingly-complex agricultural markets, presenting a platform through which clients are able to gain a keen understanding of the integrated global agriculture industry; and to act upon this knowledge. We provide: Coordinated risk management (hedge structures and brokerage / clearing services) Active advising services Dynamic trading strategies (proprietary speculative structures) “Right people” introductions Commodity execution services In forming ConsiliAgra in January 2009, Emily French aligned herself with Global Asset Advisors. Since its inception, ConsiliAgra clients now range from international & domestic commercials to hedge funds and investment banks as well as a private money portfolio. Global Asset Advisors is an umbrella organization compromised of international agriculture speculators, hedgers, service providers and information sources. Contact information: Emily French Managing Director, ConsiliAgra Office: Mobile: This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any commodity. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from reliable sources, we do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All options and opinions are subject to change without notice.


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