1. August2011 1 CSA A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from Rockets & Missiles ISMOR 2011 Maj. Barak Corem Center of System Analysis Planning Division IDF

2. August2011 2 CSA Contents  Background  Motivation  Study Questions  Scope  The Method  Numerical Example  Method’s Limitation  Summary

3. August2011 3 CSA Background WW-II The battle on London The blitz 57 continuous bombing days 43,000 casualties 1,000,000 destroyed buildings V1/V2 attacks 11,500 launches 9,000 casualties 200 Al-Hussein & SCUD Missiles 700 casualties Iran-Iraq War “War of the Cities” 300 air strikes 20,000-50,000 casualties WW-II Attacks on Berlin Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

4. August2011 4 CSA Background Desert Storm 1991  39 Al-Hussein Missiles (SCUD) were launched at Israel  10,000 Apartments suffered damage Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

5. August2011 5 CSA 2nd Lebanon War 2006  ~4,000 rockets were fired at Israel  Hundreds of apartments were damaged  About 40 civilian casualties Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

6. August2011 6 CSA Motivation for the Analysis  Hezbollah & Hamas Massive Arming Civilians are targeted  Israel Protected Rooms / Shelters Advanced Warning Systems Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

7. August2011 7 CSA Study Questions  How many apartments are expected to suffer damage in a future war? Estimation of structural damage Home Front Command preparations  How many casualties are expected in a future war? Deployment of missile defense assets HMS Preparations Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

8. August2011 8 CSA Scope of the Analysis  Conventional rockets & missiles, not NBC weapons  Civilian damage only Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

9. August2011 9 CSA Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground Civilian Damage Assessment Method Threat to Civilian Targets Construction & Population Characteristic Number of Damaged Apartments & Casualties Intelligence estimation Damage from Single Rocket/Missile Intelligence Warhead Testing Population Behavior Civilian Database Ammunition Specifications Analysis

10. August2011 10 CSA Threat to Civilian Remaining Threat Initial Threat Legend Enemy Capabilities Offensive Achievements Interception Remaining Threat Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

11. August2011 11 CSA Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground Construction Data  Building-level statistics Built Area (sq. km) Density (buildings / sq. km) Height (m)  Apartment-level statistics Area (sq. m) Volume (cubic m)

12. August2011 12 CSA Weapon Damage Criteria HeavyMediumMinor Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

13. August2011 13 CSA Explosion on the Roof ( illustration ) Explosion point volume of the damage Upper half - no damage Affected apartments Affected volume* Buildings density Apartment volume No. of affected apartments = Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

14. August2011 14 CSA Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground  Raw damage estimate (Accuracy( X)population density)  Crisis factors Self evacuation Reserve forces mobilization Population Density

15. August2011 15 CSA Illustration of Density Calculation High “average density” Medium “average density” Low “average density” Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground Medium “average density”

16. August2011 16 CSA Weapon Damage Illustration (Affected Area per Weapon) Missile BMissile ARocket BRocket A Protection Status 530.40.2 Street 320.30.15 Building 1.510.20.1 Concrete Room 10.50.10.05 Shelter Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

17. August2011 17 CSA Population Behavior (Protection) Distribution of PeopleProtection Status 0%4Building 30% Concrete Room 20%Shelter 10%Street 100%Sum Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

18. August2011 18 CSA Casualties from Single Rocket/Missile Average Density Ammunition Damage Distribution of People Protection Status 2.4 3 2 0%4Building 0.91 30% Concrete Room 0.30.5 20%Shelter 0.93 10%Street 4.5Expected casualties by single rocket/missile Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground

19. August2011 19 CSA Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground  High variance between hits (a few extreme events might cause a large proportion of the casualties)  High levels of uncertainty: Population Obedience Opponent Strategy Method’s Limitation

20. August2011 20 CSA  A method for civilian damage assessment was presented Apartment damage Casualties  Method applications Prioritization of missile defense asset deployment Interception policy Defense systems build-up Home front command units deployment Preparation of the civil authorities Summary Method’s Limitation Numerical Example The MethodScope Study Questions MotivationBackground