1. Communicating Climate and Weather Information Chris Elfring, Director Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate The National Academies 500 Fifth Street NW Washington DC 20001

2. The National Academies Advisors to the nation on science, engineering, and medicine. We generate about one report a day on a range of issues.

3. Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate  seeks to advance understanding of the atmospheric sciences, meteorology, and climate;  foster application of this knowledge to benefit the public; and  advise US research programs so they are responsive to scientific opportunities and the needs of the nation.

4. Some Insights from NRC 2003  Invest time in communications from the start  Understand the communications process  Use multiple modes  Repeat important messages  Education of user community is a goal of good communication  Communication is part of a broader process of decision making; produce useful products that support process

5. Some Insights from NRC 2003  Be aware: forecasters/users are different cultures and use words differently  Know the audience  Forecasts not fully supported by science reduce future credibility  Clear, graphic warnings increase the chances for intelligent responses  Communicate uncertainty and why it is uncertain  Both qualitative and quantitative descriptions are useful

6. Some Insights from NRC 2003  Effectively communicating uncertainty and context shifts responsibility of decision making to user  Success or failure of forecasts and media portrayal determine credibility of future forecast  Correct problems asap  Avoid over-selling  Provide follow-on information about forecast quality to help credibility of future communications

7. Some Insights from NRC 2003  Diverse and multiple sources of info/forecasts have value but also can create confusion  Limit confusion – be clear when providing experimental products  A source of compiled info with diverse products is useful  Conflicting forecasts and info in life threatening situations can result in decision errors; highlight “official” forecasts

8. Some Insights from NRC 2006  Guidance on how to identify and characterize needs for uncertainty information among various users  Identify limits of current methods and recommend improvements  Identify sources of misunderstanding  Recommendations for NWS but potentially broader (other NOAA, other gov’t, commercial, media, weather risk management, etc.)

9. Some Insights from NRC 2006  Users (weather, seasonal climate, water) of forecasts “conditioned” to receive incomplete info about likelihood of events  “Determinism” legacy remains strong  Expression of uncertainty should be fundamental element of forecasts  Partnerships between gov’t and others in Weather Enterprise can help better understand user needs, generate rich info products, and improve communication of uncertainty

10. Some Insights from NRC 2006  Entire Weather Enterprise has responsibility for providing products that communicate effectively  Collaborate with users and partners from the beginning and engage social and behavioral science expertise  Cooperate on educational efforts  Develop capability to produce objective uncertainty info at scales  Make raw and post-processed probabilistic products accessible

11. Some Insights from NRC 2006  Improve verification efforts  Develop new methods for estimation, communication, and use of forecast uncertainty info (e.g., testbeds)  Establish an independent advisory committee (Fair Weather, 2006)  Dedicate executive attention to coordinating the estimation and communication of uncertainty info within NWS and with Enterprise partners

12. Issues with Potential for NRC Input Many of the issues discussed today, and more, could be addressed via the National Academy of Sciences : Climate services Wildland fire weather forecasting Climate and extreme events Climate impacts, implications, and adaptations Climate predictability Climate dynamics and modeling Climate and national security Observing networks Ozone depletion, recovery, and continuing challenges Aerosols (e.g., black carbon)

13. Why an Academy Study? Unique Strengths:  Stature of Academies’ name, memberships and reputation  Ability to get the very best to serve  “Pro bono” nature of committee service and careful attention to conflict of interest issues  Special relationship to the government  Quality control procedures  Independence, scientific objectivity, balance  Consensus findings and recommendations

14. New project developed and approved Congressional mandate Internally initiated Agency request Committee of volunteers developed and approved Committee meetings to gather information, deliberate, and prepare a report NRC Report Independent, external review NAS members NAE members IOM members other experts NRC Study Process BASC-CRC Dissemination

15. How to Request an Academy Study  Formal  Written into congressional legislation  Letter from agency management  Informal  Conversations with BASC director or staff  Conversations with BASC members (individually or at board meetings) Project development is a joint process so what is done meets requestor’s needs and Academy standards

16. Contact Information Chris Elfring Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate The National Academies 500 Fifth Street NW (K-636) Washington DC 20001 celfring@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/basc 202 334 3426 (direct) 202 334 3512 (main) 202 334 3825 (fax)