1. A Flexible Sea Level Generator for Small Island States Xianfu Lu (SIS09) By At AIACC Asia Regional Workshop March 25~27, 2003 Bangkok, Thailand

2. 1.Research question; 2.Methodology used to address the research question; 3.Progress made so far; 4.Challenges ahead; 5.Possible solutions to overcome the difficulties Presentation outline

3. 1. Research question What are the likely sea level changes over the next century in the pacific islands ? Overview of the SIS09 project

4. 2. Methodology Global sea level rise projections MAGICC Regional sea level rise scenarios wide range of emissions scenarios and climate model parameterizations Sea level change patterns from GCM experiments Pattern Scaling Local relative sea level rise scenarios Tide gauge records Local SL trend analysis

5. 3. Progress made so far… Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL;

6. 3. Progress made so far… (continued) Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL; Analyzing local sea level trends at the study sites;

7. Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL; Analyzing local sea level trends at the study sites; Obtaining IPCC TAR-compatible global sea level rise projections;global sea level rise projections 3. Progress made so far… (continued)

8. Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL; Analyzing local sea level trends at the study sites; Obtaining IPCC TAR-compatible global sea level rise projections; Obtaining regional sea level change patterns simulated by (IPCC TAR reviewed) GCM experiments; 3. Progress made so far… (continued)

10. Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case study sites (Fiji & Cook Islands) from PSMSL; Analyzing local sea level trends at the study sites; Obtaining IPCC TAR-compatible global sea level rise projections; Obtaining regional sea level change patterns simulated by (IPCC TAR reviewed) GCM experiments; Initial analyses of large-scale sea level changes from GCM patterns and local ongoing sea level change trend 3. Progress made so far… (continued)

11. 4. Challenges ahead… Relatively short tide gauge records hinder robust analysis of local sea level change contributing factors; How to disaggregate the eustatic changes and other components from the observed local mean sea level changes? Local ongoing relative change Global/regional sea level change Local contributing factors: -Vertical land movement; -Local fluctuation; -IPO; -ENSO; -… time Sea Level Change

12. 5. Possible solutions… Relatively short tide gauge records hinder robust analysis of local sea level change contributing factors. Search for additional tide gauge records locally How to disaggregate the eustatic changes and other components from the observed local mean sea level changes? Review literature to develop a method to derive local components of relative sea level change