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Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC Project SIS09) Conducted by: Pacific Centre for Sustainable Environment and Development (PACE), The University of the South Pacific In collaboration with: International Global Change Institute (IGCI), The University of Waikato and the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) This presentation is by Richard Warrick Wei Ye Peter Kouwenhoven International Global Change Institute (IGCI), The University of Waikato Hamilton New Zealand
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Three Linked Objectives 1.New tools for integrated assessment 2.Case study applications 3.Capacity building Focus on: Local scale assessment Coastal settlements Risks from variability and extremes (AIACC Project SIS09)
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This presentation will: Describe new integrated assessment modelling developments Illustrate with case study from Rarotonga, Cook Islands
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Build upon the foundation of integrated assessment models already developed Suitability for Taro Growing For example, the existing FijiCLIM model: Limitation of existing models: impacts, not adaptation biophysical impacts, not socio-economic average climate, not risk of extremes
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1.Capacity for multi-scale modelling 2.Local sea-level rise scenario generator 3.Human dimensions components 4.Coastal flooding impact models 5.Transient simulation 6.Scenarios of future development and land use change 7.Adaptation analysis 8.Economic tools Eight New Model Developments
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1. Capacity for multi-scale modelling Rarotonga, Cook Islands Avatiu area
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1. Capacity for multi-scale modelling Open framework system
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2. Local sea-level rise scenario generator Combine global, regional and local sea-level components Suva tide gauge data
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2. Local sea-level rise scenario generator Normalised pattern 1.50 IPCC compatible
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3. Human dimensions components
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Avatiu area, Rarotonga, Cook Islands
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Significant Wave Height Max. Wind Atmospheric Pressure Wind set-up + Run-up elevation + Wave set-up + Wave run-up Adaptation Measures & Design Climate Change Barometric set-up Mean sea-level + Tropical cyclone intensity Sea Level Rise Return Period Acceptable risk levels 4. Coastal flooding impact models
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2050 Study area Current climate Study area 50-YEAR EVENT
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5. Transient simulation Damage assessments Economic analysis Adaptation effects Evolving climate and land use “TRANSIENT” versus “TIME-SLICE” Physical impacts Spatial analysis Visual
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6. Scenarios of development and land use Fractional change (per year) of land use type Model rules and settings
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7. Adaptation analysis Simulated individually or in combination
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Classify and survey structures by: type (e.g. residential) age (e.g. <10 yrs) construction (e.g. woodframe) Flood height- % damage function Indicative $ value x = $ Damage Single family, new, woodframe $20k x 4 100 Water height (m) % damage 50 0 213 = $10k Damage For example… 8. Economic tools Dollar damages Basic Benefit-Cost Analysis
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8. Economic tools SIMULATE IMPACTS … Over study area Over distribution of flood events With and without climate change With and without adaptation In time steps (“transient” mode) as climate changes as land use changes Aggregate and discount to present value
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8. Economic tools With climate change Without climate change With adaptation
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DAMAGES 8. Economic tools ADAPTATION BENEFITS & COSTS
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Advantages of New Developments Scale that is appropriate for adaptation Focuses on risk from climate extremes Can separate climate change effects from natural variability Basis for estimating the incremental costs and benefits of adaptation CAUTION! Models are not enough…
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