1. DRAFT 10-20-04 1 What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently? Public Forum on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board

2. DRAFT 10-20-04 2 Study of “What If” Scenarios  What if job and housing growth were shifted? What if new roads or transit were built?  How would 2030 travel conditions change?  Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.”

3. DRAFT 10-20-04 3 Presentation Outline  Historical and Forecast Trends  “What If” Scenarios: A Building Block Approach  Alternative Land Use Scenarios  What Do the Scenarios Tell Us?  Next Study Phase

4. DRAFT 10-20-04 4 Historical and Forecast Trends

5. DRAFT 10-20-04 5 The Washington Region  Approximately 3,000 square miles  Includes 4.5 million people and 2.8 million jobs  The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) prepares a financially constrained, 30-year transportation plan for the region

6. DRAFT 10-20-04 6 Employment is Growing Faster than Population 1970: 3 Million 2000: 4.5 Million 1970: 1.5 Million 2000: 2.8 Million 2000: 4.5 Million 2030: 6.2 Million 2000: 2.8 Million 2030: 4.2 Million

7. DRAFT 10-20-04 7 The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace 2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million 2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles

8. DRAFT 10-20-04 8 Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for Maintenance Little money is available for new transportation projects 23% 77% New Roads and Transit Operations & Preservation

9. DRAFT 10-20-04 9 Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and Go Evening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030 Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph) 2000 2030

10. DRAFT 10-20-04 10 Metro Platforms and Trains Will Be Packed Morning Peak-Hour Transit Congestion: 2000 and 2030 Congested Highly Congested 20002030

11. DRAFT 10-20-04 11 Looking at “What If” Scenarios: A Building Block Approach

12. DRAFT 10-20-04 12 What if current plans don’t change? Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts  Regional Transportation Plan - Projects with anticipated funding  Current Growth Forecasts - Jobs and households 1

13. DRAFT 10-20-04 13 How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts 2010: 125 Million 2030: 150 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles 2030: 2,600 Miles 2010: 1 Million 2030: 1.3 Million

14. DRAFT 10-20-04 14 What if the capacity of the current transit system was maximized? Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts “Enhanced Transit” Scenario  Longer trains, station improvements, expanded bus service, and more commuter trains to accommodate projected demand 1 2

15. DRAFT 10-20-04 15 How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Current Plan Enhanced Transit 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles

16. DRAFT 10-20-04 16 What if land use patterns also changed? Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts “Enhanced Transit” Scenario 1 2 3 Alternative Land Use Scenarios 3

17. DRAFT 10-20-04 17 What are some of the key issues the land use scenarios might address?

18. DRAFT 10-20-04 18 Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania Forecast Job Growth Forecast Household Growth Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands) Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household

19. DRAFT 10-20-04 19 What if more people who worked here lived here? VA WV Balt. Scenario #1: “More Households”  Increase household growth to balance forecast job growth  Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters” Regional Activity Cluster Increase household growth by 200,000 Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts More Households “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts

20. DRAFT 10-20-04 20 Baseline (Enhanced Transit) More Households 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles Scenario #1: “More Households” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?

21. DRAFT 10-20-04 21 Baseline (Enhanced Transit) More Households 2010: 125 Million Scenario #1: “More Households” Even with 200,000 more households, daily vehicle miles of travel would go down. Plus…

22. DRAFT 10-20-04 22 Scenario #1: More Households” Under Scenario #1, the average person would drive two miles less per day. Scenario #1 Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel per Person 2010: 23.4 miles/ person 2030 Baseline: 24.2 miles/ person 2030 Scenario #1: 22.1 miles/ person

23. DRAFT 10-20-04 23 Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs  Inner jurisdictions – most job growth  Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth  Average commute – more than 30 minutes

24. DRAFT 10-20-04 24 What if people lived closer to their jobs? Regional Activity Cluster Shift 84,000 households Scenario #2A: “Households In”  Shift household growth to inner jurisdictions (to get people closer to jobs) Households In “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts

25. DRAFT 10-20-04 25 Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Households In 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles Scenario #2A: “Households In” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?

26. DRAFT 10-20-04 26 Scenario 2A: “Households In” This scenario would have the biggest impact on morning congestion. Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Households In 2010: 1,700 Miles

27. DRAFT 10-20-04 27 What if jobs were located closer to where people live? Regional Activity Cluster Shift 82,000 jobs Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out”  Shift job growth to outer jurisdictions (to get jobs closer to new housing) Jobs Out “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts

28. DRAFT 10-20-04 28 Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Jobs Out 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles

29. DRAFT 10-20-04 29 Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” Transit use would not grow as quickly. (Not enough transit service in outer jurisdictions.) Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Jobs Out 2010: 1 Million

30. DRAFT 10-20-04 30 Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” But the scenario still would slow the growth of congestion. Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Jobs Out 2010: 1,700 Miles

31. DRAFT 10-20-04 31 Issue #3: East-West Divide Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000 A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western parts of the region

32. DRAFT 10-20-04 32 Issue #3: East-West Divide West-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour Average Commute Time Morning Rush Hour Up to 30 minutes Up to 40 minutes Over 40 minutes

33. DRAFT 10-20-04 33 What if there were more development on the eastern side of the region? Regional Activity Cluster Shift 57,000 households and 114,000 jobs Scenario #3: “Region Undivided”  Shift job and household growth from West to East Region Undivided “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts

34. DRAFT 10-20-04 34 Scenario #3: “Region Undivided” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Region Undivided 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles The trends are encouraging.

35. DRAFT 10-20-04 35 Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas Household Growth 2010 to 2030 Inside Transit Station Areas Outside Transit Station Areas Employment Growth 2010 to 2030 30% 70% 20% 80%

36. DRAFT 10-20-04 36 What if people lived and worked closer to transit? Metro Rail Commuter Rail Bus Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented”  Locate job and household growth around transit stations Transit Oriented Development “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts

37. DRAFT 10-20-04 37 Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Transit Oriented 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles Again, the trends are encouraging.

38. DRAFT 10-20-04 38 What do these scenarios tell us?

39. DRAFT 10-20-04 39 The scenarios show some favorable trends.  Transit trips would increase.  The growth in morning congestion would be slowed.

40. DRAFT 10-20-04 40 Why aren’t the impacts greater?

41. DRAFT 10-20-04 41 Most jobs and housing for 2030 are already in place. Households in 2000 Growth by 2010 Growth by 2030 Affected by scenarios 2030 Households 72% 13% 15% Underway or in the pipeline Already in place (Of course, some of this might be rezoned or redeveloped in the future…)

42. DRAFT 10-20-04 42 Scenario impacts may be small regionally, but large locally. Before After

43. DRAFT 10-20-04 43 Significant change takes time. Courtesy of WMATA  Scenarios only look out to 2030, but impacts may be greatest in 2040, 2050, and beyond  For example, just look at how long it took to get Metro in place...

44. DRAFT 10-20-04 44 Is there a way to magnify the impacts?

45. DRAFT 10-20-04 45 = ? + New roads, bridges, transit Future stages of the study will include transportation scenarios… The impacts might be greater if transportation improvements were added. For example:

46. DRAFT 10-20-04 46 Impacts might be even greater if we combined scenarios. For example, what if we combined: Scenario #3 (Region Undivided) Scenario #4 (Transit Oriented Development) and transportation improvements ? + = ? Future stages of the study will look at such combinations… New roads, bridges, transit +

47. DRAFT 10-20-04 47 Next Study Phase  Alternative transportation scenarios  New rail lines?  New bus routes?  New roads?  New bridges?  Combining transportation and land use scenarios Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Alternative Land Use Scenarios 1 2 3 Alternative Transportation Scenarios 4 5 Combining Scenarios

48. DRAFT 10-20-04 48 Discussion Questions  What did you think of the presentation?  What did you think of the scenarios?  What transportation scenarios should be looked at?

49. DRAFT 10-20-04 49 For more information, contact the Transportation Planning Board: (202) 962-3200 TPBPublicComment@mwcog.org www.mwcog.org/transportation