1. 1 Source and Destination: Transfer Success at a Multi-campus University System AIR 2004 Forum The Information Revolution: Bridging the Past to the Future May 31, 2004 – 4:10 PM Salon K, Boston Marriott Copley Place Boston, Massachusetts Mardy Eimers, Director of Institutional Research & Planning Kathy Schmidtke, Graduate Student, Institutional Research & Planning

2. 2 Importance of Transfers Approximately 42% of all new students are transfer students. At the urban institutions, transfer students represent 64% and 78% of all new students. Transfers are a significant part of enrollment management efforts. Admission requirements for transfer students differ from those of first-time entering students.

3. 3 University of Missouri System Large residential campus Engineering residential campus Two urban campuses Total 46,000 undergraduates

4. 4 Literature Review Transfer Shock (Hill, 1965) Transfer and “Native” Students (Arnold, 2001; Glass & Harrington, 2002; Koker & Hendel, 2003; and Saupe & Long, 1996) Transfer in the Urban setting (Bach, Banks, Kinnick, Ricks, Stoering, & Walleri, 1999) Role of Associate’s Degree (Saupe & Long, 1996; Townsend & Barnes, 2001)

5. 5 Source of Transfer Percent of UM Transfer Students

6. 6 Destination of Transfer Percent of UM Transfer Students

7. 7 Transfer Student Population 10% Underrepresented minorities 12% Had an A.A. Or A.S. Degree Mean Transfer GPA – 2.9 Mean Transfer Hours – 58 Graduation Data: –Six-year Graduation Rate – 53% –Mean Years to Graduation – 2.9 –Of those graduating, 64% graduated within 3 yrs.

8. 8 Original Study - Transfer v. Native (Lehmkuhle, Eimers, and Mullen, 2003) Transfer  24 hours  2.0 GPA Native Third semester Transfer Hours Transfer GPA UM System 6-year Graduation Rate 1991 – 1997 Fall Cohorts

9. 9 Graduation Rate Graduation Rates – Native v. Transfer Fall 1996 FT/FT DS Freshmen 6-year Grad. Rate 59%

10. 10 Original Study - Research Questions 1.Are transfer students more likely to graduate than native students, when controlling for ability and credit hours? 2.What characteristics help explain a transfer student’s likelihood of graduating?

11. 11 Original Study Findings Transfer GPA and Transfer Hours - strong positive indicators of a student’s likelihood to graduate Additionally, being an internal UM transfer and/or being female – positive indicators Negative indicators - having a post- secondary degree, transferring to an urban institution, and/or being an underrepresented minority.

12. 12 New Study – Phase I SOURCE - MO 2-year 4-year UM System Transfer Hours Transfer GPA UM System DESTINATION 6-year Graduation Rate

13. 13 Research Questions – Phase I 3.Are transfer students more likely to graduate if they enter from a 2-year, 4-year, or UM System institution, when controlling for ability and credit hours? 4.What characteristics help explain a transfer student’s likelihood of graduating, based on whether they transfer from a 2-year, 4-year, or UM System institution?

14. 14 UM Transfer Students Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Source Institution

15. 15 Student GPA Less Than 2.50 % Graduating Credit Hours Student GPA 3.5 or more % Graduating Credit Hours

16. 16 Credit Hours: 24-35 % Graduating GPA Credit Hours: Over 60 % Graduating GPA

17. 17 Control Independent Variables Male Other Ethnicity Female Asian or Minority (African American, Hispanic, Native American) 2 year or UM Associate’s of Arts, Associate’s of Science or Other Associates (2-year only) Residential GPA Category 2.5-2.9 3.0-3.49 3.5-4.0 Transfer Hour Category 36-47 48-59 60+ Age 4 year No Assoc. Deg Urban POINT ESTIMATE = 1 As Likely to Graduate as “Control” Dependent Variable Graduate Don’t Graduate Logistic Regression 24-35 2.0-2.49

18. 18 Logistic Regression Findings – 4-year Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.484Positive Transfer Hours1.165Positive Transfer to Residential1.683Positive Age0.955Negative Minority0.761Negative

19. 19 Logistic Regression Findings – 2-year Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.529Positive Transfer Hours1.204Positive Female1.158Positive Associate’s of Arts Deg1.270Positive Transfer to Residential1.103Positive Age0.964Negative Other Associate’s Deg0.707Negative Minority0.711Negative

20. 20 Logistic Regression Findings – UM Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.221Positive Transfer Hours1.125Positive Transfer to Residential1.528Positive Age0.929Negative

21. 21 New Study – Phase II SOURCE - MO Transfer Hours Transfer GPA Urban Residential UM System DESTINATION 6-year Graduation Rate Missouri Institutions

22. 22 Research Questions – Phase II 5.Are transfer students more likely to graduate if they transfer to an urban or residential campus, when controlling for ability and credit hours? 6.What characteristics help explain a transfer student’s likelihood of graduating, based on whether the student transferred to an urban or residential campus?

23. 23 Graduation Rate Graduation Rates of MO Transfer Students by Destination Institution 48%59% All UM Transfers 52%

24. 24 Student GPA Less Than 2.50 % Graduating Credit Hours Student GPA 3.5 or more % Graduating Credit Hours

25. 25 Credit Hours: 24-35 % Graduating GPA Credit Hours: Over 60 % Graduating GPA

26. 26 Logistic Regression Findings – Urban Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.438Positive Transfer Hours1.134Positive Source UM1.619Positive Female1.398Positive Source Two-year1.138Positive Age0.965Negative Minority0.712Negative

27. 27 Logistic Regression Findings – Residential Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.588Positive Transfer Hours1.256Positive Source UM1.460Positive Asian1.610Positive Age0.947Negative Female0.839Negative Minority0.710Negative Source Two-year0.679Negative

28. 28 2-year Transfer Students Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Type of Associate’s Graduation Rate for all 2-yr 52% N = 2,361N = 6,180 N = 527 N = 176

29. 29 Exploratory Phase SOURCE - MO 2-year 4-year UM System Transfer Hours Transfer GPA Urban Residential UM System DESTINATION 6-year Graduation Rate

30. 30 Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Destination Institution 61%31%43%48%

31. 31 Logistic Regression Findings – 4-year to urban Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.420Positive Transfer Hours1.102Positive Female1.323Positive Age0.960Negative Minority0.768Negative

32. 32 Logistic Regression Findings –2-year to Urban Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.453Positive Transfer Hours1.122Positive Associate’s of Arts Deg.1.436Positive Female1.405Positive Age0.967Negative Other Associate’s Deg.0.760Negative Minority0.672Negative

33. 33 2-year Transfer Students to an Urban Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Type of Associate’s Graduation Rate for all 2-yr Urban 50% N = 1,865N = 3,688N = 468N = 135

34. 34 Logistic Regression - 4-year to Residential Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.541Positive Transfer Hours1.213Positive Age0.950Negative Minority0.726Negative

35. 35 Logistic Regression – 2-year to Residential Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Asian2.063Positive Transfer GPA1.686Positive Transfer Hours1.348Positive Age0.947Negative Female0.784Negative

36. 36 2-year Transfer Students to a Residential Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Type of Associate’s Graduation Rate of all 2-yr Residential 56% N = 496N = 2,492N = 59N = 41

37. 37 Limitations University of Missouri data Native student attrition Strength of logistic model Cell Size after aggregations

38. 38 Findings Regardless of whether a student enters from a 2-year or 4-year institution, Transfer GPA and Transfer Hours continue to be strong positive indicators of graduation. When controlling for GPA and hours, 4-year transfers graduate at a higher rate than 2-year transfers. When controlling for GPA and hours, students who transfer to a residential institution graduate at a higher rate than students who transfer to an urban institution. In an urban institution, 2-year transfers are more successful than 4-year transfers, while in a residential institution, 4-year transfers are more successful. For 2-year transfers, obtaining the Associate’s of Arts degree is a positive indicator of graduation at an urban institution.

39. 39 Discussion & Future Research Focus Transfer assimilation and articulation (AA, 42-hr) Transfer admission standards Difference in success of 2-year and 4-year students transferring to urban and residential campuses. Shared responsibility of all institutions and disciplines Ideas or modifications for future studies

40. 40 Additional Information Mardy Eimers: eimersm@umsystem.edu Office of Institutional Research & Planning 721 Lewis Hall University of Missouri System University of Missouri-Columbia Columbia, Missouri 65211 (573) 882-2778 Kathy Schmidtke: schmidtkek@missouri.edu Office of Institutional Research & Planning 712 Lewis Hall University of Missouri System University of Missouri-Columbia Columbia, Missouri 65211 (573) 884-2241