1. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com Emission Inventory Projection Factors Emissions Projection System Future Emissions

2. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Background  in the last year new European Union (EU) air quality directives have been introduced  the Directives requires Member States to divide their territory into zones related to air quality standards  the directives requires Member States to adopt plan and programs inside zones when air quality standards are not respected

3. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Topics  EU legislation and prescription for regional plan and program for air quality management  methodologies and software used in regional and local level emissions projections  differences and synergies of national, regional and “zone” projection  detailed methodology  case studies

4. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections EU air quality standards  limit value, a level fixed with the aim of avoiding, preventing or reducing harmful effects on human health and/or the environment as a whole  alert threshold, beyond which there is a risk to human health from brief exposure  margin of tolerance, the percentage of the limit value by which this value may be temporarily exceeded  upper (lower) assessment threshold, below which a combination of measurements and modeling techniques (modeling or objective-estimation techniques alone) may be used to assess air quality

5. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections EU legislation procedure Preliminary Air quality assessment Definition of zones and agglomerations Assessment of ambient air quality requirements Plan and programs

6. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Assessment of ambient air quality Air quality assessment Emission Inventory & Models Definition of zones and agglomerations Zones where levels are below the lower assessment threshold Measurement Agglomerations (>250.000 inhabitants) and Zones where levels exceed upper assessment threshold Zones where levels are between lower and upper assessment threshold

7. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Plan and programs plan or programme attaining the limit value within the specific time limit higher than the limit value plus the margin of tolerance zones and agglomerations in which the levels of one or more pollutants are: below the limit values  maintain the levels of pollutants below the limit values  preserve the best ambient air quality, compatible with sustainable development

8. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Regional, National & EC planning National Plans Regional Plans Measures at national scale Local effects of measures at EC or national scale Specific measures inside zones Measures at EC scale

9. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections National vs Regional general activity trend main point sources trend technologies trend & national measures Specific measure on smaller point sources inside zones Specific trend inside zones Specific measures for lines and area inside zones NationalNational Regional Plans

10. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Model Emission Inventory Projection Drivers Scenario definition in Emissions Projection System Future Emissions Area emissions inside zones Line emissions inside zones National point sources emissions Minor point sources emissions

11. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Projection drivers: activity a α = V α k / V α 0 V α 0 (V α k ) activity levels at base (at future) year examples:  population, gross domestic product  agricultural production, waste production  number of road vehicles, number of takeoff/landing  tons of freight transported by road and sea  specific reduction of miles in zone by traffic limitation  specific reduction of miles in zone by fuel limitation  specific modification of single Point and Line sources activities

12. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Projection drivers: technology (EFs) f β = V β k / V β 0 V β 0 (V β k ) parameters which affect emission at base year (at future year) examples:  sulphur content of fuels  new regulation limits on emissions from point sources and mobile sources  solvent content of products (paints, inks, glues, etc.)  application of Best Available Technologies – BATs at regional or single sources level  application of Best Available Practices – BAPs at regional or single sources level

13. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Scenarios definition  activity scenarios defined associating to selected activities, specific activity drivers at regional, zone, line and units of point source level  technology scenarios defined associating to selected activities and pollutants, specific technology drivers at regional, zone, line and units of point source level  emissions scenarios obtained as combination of activity, technology and point sources scenarios

14. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Area emissions E ijkz = E ij0z a  f  a  f  +  E ijkz Area emissions E ijkz of pollutant j at year k, in zone z, for the activity i are evaluated from emissions at base year E ij0z and:  driver for regional activity indicators projection a   driver for regional emission factors projection f   driver for zone activity indicators projection a   driver for zone emission factors projection f   aditional emissions  E ijkz for new absolute contribution (new activities in some zones)

15. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Point emissions E ijkup = E ij0up a  f  a  f  +  E ijklup Point sources emissions E ijkp of pollutant j at year k, of unit u of source p, for the activity i are evaluated from emissions at base year E ij0p and:  driver for regional activity indicators projection a   driver for regional emission factors projection f   driver for unit activity indicators projection a   driver for unit emission factors projection f   aditional emissions  E ijkup for new absolute contribution (new units, new plants)

16. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Line emissions E ijkl = E ij0l a  f  a  f  +  E ijkl Line emissions E ijkl of pollutant j at year k, on line l, for the activity i are evaluated from emissions at base year E ij0l and:  driver for regional activity indicators projection a   driver for regional emission factors projection f   driver for line activity indicators projection a   driver for line emission factors projection f   additional emissions  E ijkl for new lines (for examples new transport infrastructures)

17. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections PREM system

18. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections PREM Main menu

19. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections PREM Report menu

20. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Trento Bolzano Friuli-Venezia Giulia Liguria Sicilia Campania Toscana Umbria Basilicata Regional case studies in Italy

21. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Regional case study 1

22. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Regional case study 2

23. Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com 30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Conclusion  A specific methodology is required for evaluate emissions reduction scenarios at zones level in the frame of EU air quality directive plan and program  The methodology is complementary to European and National level planning  A specific tool are developed for zone emission projection  Methodology and tool are used in regional planning in Italy in the last years