1. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing Presented by Hamza Kabelwa Prepared by Richard H. Grumm Contributions by Vadlamani Kumar NCEP Version 2.0

2. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Overview NCEP African Desk website –Key entry point: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ –Products for forecasters http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.sh tmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.sh tml Surfs up tour of products and locations

3. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 NCEP African Desk Entry Point http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Part of USAID/Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) African Desk Training/Cirriculum Forecast Products and outlooks Key contacts Wassila Thiaw Vadlamani Kumar Enter Via the MAP Our Africa under Special Products

4. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Test Drive Site for Products Try main entry point Examine text products bulletin Examine use of maps and data+- http://www.cpc.ncep.n oaa.gov/products/afric an_desk/cpc_intl/http://www.cpc.ncep.n oaa.gov/products/afric an_desk/cpc_intl/ http://www.cpc.ncep.n oaa.gov/products/afric an_desk/cpc_intl/afric a/africa.shtmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.n oaa.gov/products/afric an_desk/cpc_intl/afric a/africa.shtml

5. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Main Forecaster Real-time data http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml Resources for forecaster Expert Assessments Regional NWP Africa Wide NWP Observations –Analysis –Precipitation Satellite Data –Real-time and precipitatoin estimates

6. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Links International Jump off point: –http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa n_desk/cpc_intl/http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa n_desk/cpc_intl/ Main Forecast entry point –http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa n_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa n_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml East Africa tools: –http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa n_desk/cpc_intl/eafrica/eafrica.shtmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa n_desk/cpc_intl/eafrica/eafrica.shtml

7. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I Higher resolution than the EFS 15 or 27 vs 75 km Typically more skill than our EFS Best at shorter forecast ranges It is an ensemble member in and of itself Has meteorological details Put details often introduce errors!

8. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I  EFS and global models  are too course for features which can really impact the local and regional weather  Smooth out terrain features  Smooth out finer scale features  Flooding and severe weather events are typically meso-  and meso-  features  Finer resolution models and Local Area Models play a valuable role in filling the gaps  Diagnosis of stability can help in many cases

9. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I

10. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I

11. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I

12. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I

13. SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Review NCEP African Desk website –Main jump off/entry point: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ –Products for forecasters http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.sh tmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.sh tml A brief tour of the site was conducted