1. MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF UKRAINE NATIONAL AVIATION UNIVERSITY Institute of air navigation Air Navigation Systems Department Diploma work educational-qualification level “Master” Theme: «Deterministic models of air traffic controller decision making in case of emergency situation. Engine failure» Детерміновані моделі прийняття рішень авіадиспетчером у разі виникнення позаштатної ситуації. Відмова двигуна. Supervisor professor Performed by Shmelova T. F. Veresenko L.A. Kyiv 2015

2. Goal of the work - developing deterministic model (DM) for special situation in flight – engine failure during flight. Object of research - decision-making process an air traffic controller in the emergency – engine failure. In the diploma work were used decision tree and network planning. Tasks: a statistical analysis of accident in case of engine failure; analysis of decision support system; build Decision Tree, structural time-table of controller actions and Network Graph; create a computer program «Engine failure training» 2

3. Decision making in emergency situation Aviation became an independent part of human being. Over the last decades there is a tendency of increasing of air traffic flows over the world. Also aviation is a vital part of the increasingly globalised world economy, facilitating the growth of international trade, tourism and international investment, and connecting people across continents Decision support tools used to assess: –Separation –Velocity –Routes –Headings –Communication modes: Datacomm vs radio –Queuing and scheduling –Type of equipment identification 3

4. Acknowledge – Separate – Silence – Inform –Support – Time. 4

5. Decision Support System A Decision Support System (DSS) is a computer- based information system that supports business or organizational decision-making activities. 5 Database Models base Database management system The control system of the model base User`s Interface The main components of DSS

6. Statistical analysis of accident Number Of Engine Failure Accidents By Year (in %) Statistic of flight accidents on different phase of flight Statistics of dead in civil aviation for the last 6 decades 1 2 1.Rolling - 13%; 2.Take off - 12%; 3.Climb - 8%; 4.Horizontal flight - 5%; 5.Subsequent descend - 3%; 6.Approach - 13%; 7.Touch down - 18%; 8.Landing - 28%. 6

7. End Pilot make decision to land on aerodrom Pilot request a priority landing Transfer ACFT to tower Get message from pilot about engine fire. Report pilot place, fix time Pilot establish distress Report flight director To switch on radio silence Remind pilot establish “Distress” continue transmitting Stop transmitting for safety or security resons Begin YES NO Yes No Yes No Change transponder mode- squawk IDENT, squawk 7700 Network Planning Algorithm activity of ATCo in case of engine failure 7

8. The list of actions for air traffic controller in the event of emergency “Engine failure” Questionnaire to determine the time to perform the procedure №WorkWork descriptionOn which work rely Time of work,t,sec 1а1а1Obtain information from pilot about engine failure - 5 2а2а2Acknowledge informationа1а1 4 3а3а3Crew will determine fuel quantity а2а2 5 4а4а4Support height of an aircraftа3а3 5 5а5а5Inform landing aerodromeа3а3 10 6а6а6Ask if dangerous goods on board and ask for number of Persons On Board (POB) а3а3 10 7а7а7Clear RWY when ACFT 50 track kilometres 15 8а8а8Transfer a/c to towerа7а7 20 Network Planning 8

9. Network graph identifying the critical execution time required work of air traffic controller in the event of the emergency “Engine failure’’ T critical = 59 sec, a way - (a1, a2, a3, a5, a7, a8). 9 a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 060 4040 Network Planning

10. Constructi on of a decision tree in case of the emergency situation (engine failure) 10 Type of situationAmount of loses (U) Successful flight (p1=0.4)Not successful flight (p2=0.6) Outside landingU 21 6U 22 9 Landing at the aerodromeU 31 2U 32 4 Alternate aerodromeU 51 3U 52 5 Any nearest aerodromeU 61 3U 62 6 Suitable equipmentU 81 2U 82 6 Not-suitable equipmentU 91 3U 92 7 Initial data Decision Tree

11. Construction of a decision tree in case of the emergency situation (engine failure) 11 As a result of our calculation we get, that the best option in such emergency is to land at the aerodrome, not outside landing. Decision Tree

12. COMPUTER PROGRAM «ENGINE FAILURE TRAINING» 12 The main window which defines optimal and safe decisions in emergency situations (engine failure)

13. COMPUTER PROGRAM «ENGINE FAILURE TRAINING» 13 Example of an radio communication According to the time the structure of user actions Example of Сontrol Zone of an airport "Kyiv" (Zhuliany) Variants of instructions and request an air traffic controller to pilot about emergency situation Information box of AUI 342 aircraft

14. Practical implementation 1. «ENGINE FAILURE TRAINING» can be used during simulator training of air traffic controllers. 2. «ENGINE FAILURE TRAINING» can be used for exams of students in university.

15. Conclusion In the diploma work was soundly: Analyzed the method of decision tree and network planning. Reviewed statistical analysis of accident in case of engine failure Described technology of operating procedures for air traffic controller in the event of emergency – engine failure. Built decision tree, structural time-table, algorithm of ATCO actions and network graph which show the critical execution time required work of air traffic controller. Created computer program " Engine failure training." 15

16. Thank you for your attention 16