1. Car Ownership in Singapore Fu Haidong Lin Di Lin Yingnan Qin Shuang Zhang Qi

2. Stock and Flow Total no. of cars Disposal per year New purchase per year New COE per year Actual COE for first 10 years Projected COE after 10 years COE quota Car ownership net increase rate Discrepancy between desired & actual growth rate Max allowable net increase rate Effect of discrepancy on COE growth rate Modified COE growth rate Reference COE growth rate Effect of no. of bids on COE growth rate Disposal rate for first 10 years Delayed disposal rate Life time of a car Estimated expense Disposal price Total annual cost One off payment Effect of car expense on increase in COE bids

4. success rate perceived success rate COE price population growth ratio nominal new bidsreference population populationeffect of perceived success rate on number of new bids equivalent annual expense perceived annual expense effect of perceived annual expense on number of new bids perceived public transport convenience relative public transport affordability public transport availability base new bidsprobability of withdrawal modified COE growth rate reference COE growth rate effect of number of bids on COE growth rate

6. S&F: Actual COE for First 10 Years Back

7. S&F: Total Annual Cost Back

8. S&F: One off Payment One off paymentGSTAverage Open Market Value of a car Total vehicle Tax GST rateExercise dutyAdditional registration fee Registration fee COE price Exercise duty as % of OMV ARF as % of OMV Back