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AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2011 ALY-KHAN SATCHU presents to DELOITTE www.rich.co.ke.

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Presentation on theme: "AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2011 ALY-KHAN SATCHU presents to DELOITTE www.rich.co.ke."— Presentation transcript:

1 AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2011 ALY-KHAN SATCHU presents to DELOITTE www.rich.co.ke

2 GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS

3 23 rd February Tweet Ai Weiwei

4 The Translation "I didn't care about jasmine at first, but people who are scared by jasmine sent out information about how harmful jasmine is often, which makes me realize that jasmine is what scares them the most. What a jasmine!"

5 Mohamed Bouazizi – Tipping Agent

6 Gaddafi The Craziest Guy In The Room

7 Heightened Geopolitical Risk Lifts Crude

8 Crude Oil Post Bouazizi

9 Kenya Spent KES 250 BN 12 Months thr Feb 2011 +31% on Crude Imports

10 The Mobile – A Game Changer – Signal To Noise-Gulliver and Lilliputians

11 Food Price Index- All Time High

12 AFRICA THE BROADER CANVAS "The first quarter of 2011 has been among the most turbulent in Africa's history.“ AFDB

13 Statistics  2 Billion Consumers in 2050  A Billion Consumers Now  Walmart Buys Massmart for $4.4 Billion  Bharti Buys Zain for $10.7 Billion  More Families in Africa who earn more than $20,000 p.a. than in India  China-Africa trade over $100 Billion

14 East Africa – The Region  East Africa's economy is expected to show growth of 6.7 percent this year, from 6.2 percent in 2010  Regional GDP 2010 – Feel The Growth :  Uganda 6.3%  Tanzania 7.0%  Rwanda 6.5%  Sudan 5.9%  Burundi 3.7%  Kenya 5.6%  A market of 160 Million Consumers

15 Pres. Museveni Upsizes His Oil Find To 10 Bn Barrels = $4 Trillion at #Mindspeak

16 South Sudan Expected To Grow 20-25% GDP but currently squeezed by Bashir

17  Kenya Exports Market changing  Uganda overtaken UK as Kenya’s number one trading partner  Somalia, Sudan, DRC among Kenya’s top 10 export destinations

18 Reading the Kenyan Economy you need to be an Economist and a Meteorologist

19 KENYA THE STATE OF THE NOW  Inflation surges to 12.95% from a cycle low of 3.1% in 2010  Bond Yields at 9 year highs  The Shilling at an all time low  The NSE 20 -8%

20 Kenya Shilling At An All Time Low

21 NSE 20 Index -8% in 2011

22 The ICT Revolution – Kenya as a Laboratory Experiment  Kenyan mobile phone subscriber numbers rose 28 percent to 25 million last year  Internet users stood at 10 million last December compared with 4 million in 2009, CCK said

23 Is the New Constitution a Tipping Point for Political Risk  Out of the last 4 elections we have mismanaged 3  ICC process – will it be cathartic?  The Future is not seen in the Rear View Mirror or is it?

24 Thank-You


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