1. Upper Valley Housing Coalition Real Estate Market Update September 11, 2015 Presented by: Buff McLaughry & Ned Redpath

2. 1 Agenda 1. Market Trends 2. Pricing 3. Market Outlook

3. 1 2 Market Trends - Geographic Focus 1

4. 1 Market Trends – Hanover, Lebanon, Hartford Listing Inventory (347)Closed Sales (182)Pending Sales (142) Down 4.9% Down 2.2% Up 14.5% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Days on Market (67) Down 27.9% June – August 2014 vs. June – August 2015

5. 1 Market Trends - Listing Inventory (535)Closed Sales (144)Pending Sales (153) Down 4.6% Up 1.4% Up 11.7% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Days on Market (129) Down 1.5% Thetford, Hartland, Norwich, Pomfret, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Lyme, Cornish, Grantham, Plainfield June – August 2014 vs. June – August 2015

6. Market Trends – Counties: Orange, Windsor, Grafton, Sullivan Listing Inventory (4,165)Closed Sales (981)Pending Sales (1,018) Down 4.3% Up 7.8% Up 13.4% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Days on Market (129) Down 2.3% June – August 2014 vs. June – August 2015

7. Agenda 1. Market Trends 2. Pricing 3. Market Outlook

8. Average Sale Price- Down 3.4% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Under $300K June – August 2015June – August 2014 $185,300$179,000 *14 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield Closed Sales (193)Closed Sales (214)

9. Average Sale Price- Down 3.7% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Under $300K June – August 2015June – August 2014 $152,300$146,700 *Counties – Grafton, Windsor, Orange, Sullivan Closed Sales (699)Closed Sales (766)

10. Average Sale Price- Up 5.5% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) $300K - $600K $410,000$432,300 *14 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield Closed Sales (99)Closed Sales (84) June – August 2014June – August 2015

11. Average Sale Price- Down 2.9% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) $600K - $1M $771,600$749,000 *14 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield Closed Sales (21)Closed Sales (25) June – August 2014June – August 2015

12. Average Sale Price- Up 19.8% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Over $1M $1,452,000$1,740,000 *14 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield Closed Sales (9)Closed Sales (5) June – August 2014June – August 2015 *Statistically small sample

13. Average Sale Price- Up 3.5% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Over $1M $1,550,000$1,604,000 *All NH & VT counties Closed Sales (74)Closed Sales (92) June – August 2014June – August 2015

14. Agenda 1. Market Trends 2. Pricing 3. Market Outlook

15. Market Outlook – The good…. Area Unemployment Rate July 2015 United States5.3% New England4.7% Vermont3.6% New Hampshire3.7% 1. Employment is High 2. Interest Rates are Low BUT…. For every 1% increase in interest rates, buyers lose 10% of mortgage approval value. *Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Market Outlook – The bad… 1.Inventory: 1. Low - income supported purchases (low-middle market) 2. High - discretionary purchases (high end market) 2. Wages: Stagnant wages have not supported significant price increases in the last decade.

17. Market Outlook – The unknown… 1. Economic conditions in China - uncertain 2. Cheap foreign labor- stagnant wages, slow growth, flat pricing 3. Election year – another year of no accomplishments 4. 500 +/- houses in pipeline for permitting in region – good as long as they are priced for income supported purchases

18. 2007 2020 *2007 Values *Inflation Adjusted Values 2016 Market Outlook

19. Questions? WWW.UVHC.ORG Presentation posted on the Upper Valley Housing Coalition website: Buff McLaughry email: buff.mclaughry@fourseasonssir.com Ned Redpath email: ned@cbredpath.com