1. Water Management Strategies for Drought Mitigation and Sustainable Agricultural Production December 13-14, 2012, Bradford Farm, Columbia, MO Pat Guinan Extension\State Climatologist University of Missouri Commercial Agriculture Program Missouri Weather/Climate Trends

2. The climate system is extremely complex with numerous factors that drive it: atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, solar and human.

3. Departure from Normal (°F) GLOBAL ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (1895-2011) 10 yr. running mean Data Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center Using long-term average: 1901-2000 Warm Year Cool Year 1977

4. REGIONAL ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (1895-2012*) 10 yr. running mean Departure from Normal (°F) Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA Long-term average: 1895-2010 *assuming average Dec temperatures Warm Year Cool Year 2012 1921 1931 19341954 1917 1979 1912 1924 1993

5. Major Presidential Declared Disasters (2006-2011) 1. Oklahoma25 2. Missouri20 3. Nebraska17 4. Kansas15 5. Iowa14 6. New York14 7. South Dakota14 8. Arkansas13 9. Tennessee13 10. Illinois12 Groundhog Day Blizzard Feb 2011 P. Guinan Southeast Missouri Flooding Apr 2011 USACE Good Friday EF-4 Tornado Apr 2011 NWS Joplin EF-5 Tornado May 2011NWS Northwest Missouri Flooding Summer 2011 P. Guinan

6. 2012 dominated by unprecedented warmth and extreme drought… E. Cole K. Graham E. Cole P. Guinan C. Starbuck

7. U.S. National Weather Service Cooperative Weather Station Network “The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”

8. National Weather Service Cooperative Network NOAA

9. 2008 Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average* Jan 2008 – Nov 2012 Long-term average: 1895-2010 Unprecedented warmth in 2012… 2011-12: 3 rd warmest winter 2012: 1 st warmest March 2012: 1 st warmest spring 2012: 1 st warmest Jan-Nov 2012: warmest year on record? Highest above normal departure for any month since 1895 (1,415 months) 2009201020112012

10. Missouri Average Winter Temperature (Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2012*) *The winter of 2012 is defined as Dec 2011 and Jan, Feb 2012 5 yr. running meanLong-term average: 32.4°F 1931-32 ’91-92 ’99-00 ’01-02 2011-12 1904-051917-18 1935-36 1977-781978-79 Cool Period Warm Period 3 rd warmest winter last year…

11. Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2012) Long-term average: 54.3°F5 yr. running mean 1946 1977 1991 2007 2012 1924 1960 1984 1983 1947 Warm Period Cool Period Unprecedented warmth in 2012… Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA

12. Late Fall/Early Spring Vulnerability Armistice Day Blizzard & Freeze Easter Freeze, April 3-9, 2007 11/11/11 Nov 11, 1940

13. We dodged a bullet this year… +14.1°!! Missouri Average March Temperature (1895-2012) Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA Median Date of Last Spring Frost (≤ 32°F) (1971-2000)

14. Median Date of Last Spring Frost (≤ 32°F) Long term (1895-2010) vs. Past 3 decades (1981-2010) 4/19 4/16 4/26 4/22 4/11 4/08 4/10 4/09 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/18 4/12 4/14 4/12 4/20 4/21 4/17 4/13 4/09 4/06 4/09 4/19 4/12 4/14 4/26 4/27 4/11 4/13 4/21 4/15 4/18 4/30 4/06 4/12 In general, the last spring freeze date is occurring 3-4 days earlier… 4/11 4/08

15. Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2012) Long-term average: 75.6°F Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA Cool Period Warm Period 1915 19271950 19922004 1901 1934 1936 1954 1980 5 yr. running mean 3 hot summers Unprecedented warmth in 2012…

16. Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2012) Unprecedented warmth in 2012… Warm Period Cool Period 1976 1931 1963 1998 1938 1971 1993 18961996 1951

17. Median Date of First Fall Frost (≤ 32°F) Long term (1895-2010) vs. Past 30 years (1981-2010) 10/16 10/12 10/13 10/17 10/16 10/25 10/20 10/12 10/13 10/18 10/24 10/20 10/21 10/12 10/11 10/13 10/19 10/18 10/23 10/24 10/19 10/10 10/12 10/23 10/21 10/20 10/18 10/10 10/11 10/26 10/24 In general, there has been little change in the first fall frost date…

18. Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2012) 5 yr. running mean Assuming normal temps in December Long-term average: 54.6°F Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA 2012 1921 1931 19381954 1895 1904 1924 19171979 Warm Period Cool Period 2012 will be warmest year on record…

19. From one extreme to another… Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* Jan 2008 – Nov 2012 Long-term average: 1895-2010 Only 2 months in 2012 w/ above normal precip, Mar and Sep Extreme Drought Extreme Wetness 20082009201020112012

20. Missouri Jan-Nov Average Precipitation (1895-2012) Long-term average: 38.71” 2008 1993 197319271898 1953 1901 1980 1936 1976 Driest Jan-Nov since 1980 Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA

21. Missouri Annual Average Precipitation (1895-2012) Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA Long-term average: 41.14” 5 yr. running mean Assuming average December precip: 11 th driest year Wet Period Dry Period 1898 1927 19731993 2008 1901 1953 1976 19801963

22. Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 1 inch in Missouri 1895-2012* 1927 1973 1993 2008 2009 Average: 303 events 10 yr. running mean *thru 12/13 1953 1976 1930 1901 1952

23. Missouri May-Aug Average Precipitation (1895-2012) Long-term average: 16.93” 1915 19351951 1981 1993 1901 7.65” 1913 9.61” 1936 6.47” 1953 8.24” 3rd driest 2012 8.22” Wet Period Dry Period Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA Maximum drought intensity…

24. July 31, 2012May 1, 2012 http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ U.S. Drought Monitor, Missouri Aug 28, 2012 Drought Severity categories: In addition to lack of rainfall in 2012, drought rapidly evolved due to additional factors …

25. 1. Persistent above normal temperatures… Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average* Jan 2011 – Nov 2012 20112012 Record Warmth *Long-term average: 1895-2010

26. Extension Commercial Agriculture Automated Weather Station Network agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm Real-time (Updates every 5 minutes) 30 weather stations in the network, 20 of them real-time.

27. agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm

28. Date climate.missouri.edu Daily VPD for 2012 Daily avg VPD (1995-2012) Daily Vapor Pressure Deficits for May-August 2012 vs. Average Columbia, Missouri, Sanborn Field 2. Unusually low atmospheric moisture content…

29. 2 cont. Unusually low atmospheric moisture content… Average Summer Dew Point Temperature Columbia, MO Jun-Jul-Aug, 1948-2012 2012 1976 1975 1967 1972 2 nd lowest 19931995 2010 2011 1949

30. Daily Solar Radiation for May-August 2012 vs. Average Columbia, Missouri – Sanborn Field Daily solar for 2012 Daily avg solar (1995-2012) Date 3. Unusually high number of sunny days… climate.missouri.edu Cloudy Days: <14 MJ/m 2

31. Class A Pan Evaporation Apr-Sep (in.) HARC*, New Franklin, MO, 1956-2012 *Horticulture and Agroforestry Research Center 1980 1988 2012 1956 1959 Highest water loss in 24 years 1993 2008-11 High temp, low RH, high solar translated to large evaporative losses…

32. Columbia, Missouri Daily Short Crop Evapotranspiration (in.) May-August 2012 …and unusually high evapotranspiration rates… Date Total May-Aug 2012 Evapotranspiration was 25.80 in. Total May-Aug Precipitation at Columbia was 4.11 in. 6/5/2012 climate.missouri.edu

33. Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* Jan 2008 – Nov 2012 Long-term average: 1895-2010 Wettest year on record 20082009201020112012 2012 is a “young drought” when compared to others… Jan 2008-Nov 2012 departure from average: +26.19” 27 out of 59 months below normal, 46% 9.42” deficit

34. Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* Jan 1952 – Dec 1956 Long-term average: 1895-2010 19521953195419551956 The 1952-56 period is the driest 5 consecutive years on record for Missouri. Jan 1952- Dec 1956 departure from normal: - 48.09 inches!! 45 out of 60 months below normal, 75% A multi-year drought…

35. Radar estimated precipIsaac remnants in Missouri 8/31/2012 First significant dent in drought comes from Isaac… 1 to 5+ inches

36. Post Isaac precipitation events… Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Sep 2, 2012 to Dec 12, 2012 MRCC 4-5” 5 - 7.5” 7.5 - 10” 10-12.5” 12.5-15” <1 1-1.5” 3-4”

37. MRCC Precipitation Departure from Mean (in.) Sep 2, 2012 to Dec 12, 2012 Deficit has mostly increased since Isaac…

38. Precipitation Departure from Mean (in.) May 1, 2012 to Dec 12, 2012 Significant 7-month deficits remain, central US. bullseye…. MRCC

39. U.S. Drought Status as of Dec 11, 2012 http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ U.S. Drought Status as of Aug 28, 2012

40. According to Missouri Ag Statistics Service, as of Nov 11, 2012: Topsoil moisture supply: 48% short to very short Subsoil moisture supply: 79% short to very short Hay supplies: 80% short to very short Stock water supplies: 76% short to very short Pasture condition: 56% poor to very poor P. Guinan, Columbia, MO Photo taken Dec 9, 2012 Some recovery in Missouri, but impacts remain…

41. Remnants of Hurricane Isaac, in combination with wetter and cooler conditions in September and October, have provided relief for Missouri, but lingering drought impacts remain. Complete drought elimination for Missouri will take frequent, widespread and significant precipitation events as we progress through winter. A significant deficit has accumulated over the past several months and it will take a substantial amount of water to recharge the soil profile and surface water and groundwater supplies. Drought Summary An intense, persistent and historic growing season drought affected Missouri in 2012. The combination of above normal temperature, low humidity, numerous sunny days, and lack of precipitation led to a rapid onset of impacts, i.e. agriculture. Historic climate data for Missouri indicates it was the 3 rd warmest May through August period on record and the 3 rd driest May through August period on record. It was also the warmest and driest May-Aug since 1936. The 2012 drought resulted in numerous impacts, affecting many sectors in Missouri. However, it is a young drought when compared to other historic droughts, i.e. 1952-56. An important question we all need to consider is how prepared are we when the next multi-year drought affects the Show Me State?

42. 1981-2010 Mean Winter Precipitation (in.) Dec-Jan-Feb Hydrological drought will likely remain at start of next year’s growing season over much of the central U.S. 4-5 5-7.5 7.5-10 3-4 2-3 10-12.5 12.5-15 1.5-2

43. Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks Climate Outlooks

44. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Climate Prediction Center Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Outlook Issued: Nov 15, 2012

45. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Climate Prediction Center Issued: Nov 15, 2012 Dec-Jan-Feb Precipitation Outlook

46. Top 15 Driest Mays in Missouri What happened the following summer… 13% of summers cooler than normal 6% of summers wetter than normal Near normal temp: ± 1°F Near normal rain: ± 1.0” Potential summer drought signal for Missouri… Rank 67% of summers warmer than normal 20% of summers near normal temp 60% of summers drier than normal 33% of summers near normal rainfall

47. It’s impossible to say whether we’re slipping into an extended multi- year dry period, but I would be surprised if the trend of unprecedented wetness we’ve witnessed over the past few decades continues. Some thoughts… No one anticipated the severity and magnitude of the 2012 drought and, similarly, no one knows what 2013 will bring. Extended dry and wet patterns can change abruptly and there are numerous occasions, both in temp and precipitation, where Missouri transitioned from one extreme to another in a short period of time. Recent historical trends for Missouri indicate an unprecedented multi-decadal wet period beginning in the early 1980’s and persisting until recently. Conversely, there have been decadal and multi-decadal dry periods, i.e. 1930’s and 1950’s through the 1960’s.

48. Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in 1998; 12 out of the past 15 years (80%) have been above normal. The 1930’s ranks as the warmest decade on record for Missouri, 2000-2009 tied with the 1950s for 2 nd warmest decade. 2012 will be our warmest year on record (since 1895). Seasonally, Missouri winters have experienced the greatest warming trend, 16 out of the past 23 winters (70%) have been above normal and 4 out of the 5 warmest winters on record have occurred since 1991. Missouri Climate Trends Following winter, the biggest seasonal warming trend in Missouri has been during the spring period (Mar-Apr-May); there have been only 3 cooler than normal springs since 1998 (80%). The median last spring frost date in Missouri is occurring about 3-4 days earlier over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average. Updated through Dec 2012

49. Missouri Climate Trends Recent temperature trend signals during the summer and autumn have been weak. Up until the past 3 years, Missouri summers have not been unusually hot compared to others in the past, ie. 1901, 1934,1936, 1954 and 1980. The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average. Beginning in the early 1980’s, and since 1895, an unprecedented wet period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 21 out of 32 years (65%) have had above normal precipitation. Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably in winter where 22 out the past 31 winters recorded above normal precipitation (71%). Snowfall trends have been declining. Updated through Dec 2012

50. Missouri Climate Trends 28 cooperative weather stations have been reporting daily precipitation for 117 years, or since 1895; half of these stations have broken all-time 24-hour precipitation records since 1973 (over the past 37 years). Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an above normal trend in heavy ( ≥ 1”) and extreme ( ≥ 3”) precipitation events compared to the long- term average. Since 1970, 66% of the years, or 27 out of 41 years, have experienced an above normal number of days with measurable precipitation events ( ≥ 0.01”) in Missouri compared to the long-term average. Updated through Dec 2012

51. climate.missouri.edu

52. www.cocorahs.org Important tools for drought assessments…

53. Missouri Jun 2012 327/day Jul 2012328/day Aug 2012337/day Sep 2012348/day Oct 2012336/day Nov 2012327/day www.cocorahs.org Dec 4, 2012 Important tools for drought assessments…

54. Use the Drought Impact Reporter… http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/