1. Recombining socio-technical networks in the Uzbekistani agrarian system RAPHAEL JOZAN; ROMAIN FLORENT; SAMUEL MARTIN; OLIVIER MUNOS; MARIE PANARIN Cotton Sector in Central Asia: economic policy and development challenges the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, November 3-4, 2005

2. Political regime Coordination mode 1. Social system in favor of stable and strong political power 2. Uzbekistan, a new sovereign state in quest of international legitimacy and independence. Cotton insures around 30% of states revenue; wheat insures food self sufficiency. 3. The Soviet legacy of an overspecialized economy oriented towards the export of cotton fiber produced by large collective and state farms 4. Critical demographic pressure in rural areas Property regime Stable centralized presidential political system Domination of public property Public ownership of land and water resources State-directed crops on the large part of irrigated land resources Bureaucratic coordination Effects: soft budget constraints; weak responsiveness to prices; plan bargaining; quantity-driven economy; chronic shortages in the economy; unemployment … Political subsidiarity at local and regional levels Land and water used for private interests (more or less informally) Private property increases with demographic growth Market coordination (even if market distortions are high, due to the centralized and administrated agrarian sub- system ) Effects: Hard budget constraints; High responsiveness to prices; … CONTEXT THE BIMODAL UZBEKISTANI AGRARIAN ECONOMY Centralized and administrated agrarian sub-system Decentralized agrarian sub-system Modes of production Orientation : cotton, wheat, silk, some fruits productions Administrated agriculture : (1) State plan; (2) output and input managed by the state or by quasi-State organizations; (3) administered prices; (4) intervention by the state in production processes Motorized and mechanized agriculture Wage-earning labor force Orientation : self-consumption, sales a local markets, micro agro- industry, exports. Non-administered agriculture Manually-driven agriculture Familial labor force Effects Main causality line 1 Main causality line 2 Recombining socio-technical networks in the Uzbekistani agrarian system RAPHAEL JOZAN; ROMAIN FLORENT; SAMUEL MARTIN; OLIVIER MUNOS; MARIE PANARIN

3. GC1-1;2;3GC2 - 1;1;2 NA 1-1;2;4 NA 1-1;3 NA 2 NA 3-1;2 Administered sub-system Non-administered sub-system Juridical categories (based on formal land tenure) VS Production Systems CollectiveCollective IndividualIndividual Small- Holding FarmFarm FarmFarm Recombining socio-technical networks in the Uzbekistani agrarian system RAPHAEL JOZAN; ROMAIN FLORENT; SAMUEL MARTIN; OLIVIER MUNOS; MARIE PANARIN

5. IF-->SH Employment (if registered) ; Wage; inputs; water (pumped); after-wheat production. SH- ->IF Inexpensive and abundant labor force; sale of organic material. SH-->CF Inexpensive labor force CF-->SH Employment (if registered); Wage; inputs; crop residues; water; after wheat production. CF-->IF Cotton Surplus to IF located in non-appropriate land for cotton production; equipment; consulting and technical knowledge; water resources IF-->CF Cotton surplus; remuneration of CF specialists; specific equipment IF-->IF Cotton, specific equipment,water Recombining socio-technical networks in the Uzbekistani agrarian system RAPHAEL JOZAN; ROMAIN FLORENT; SAMUEL MARTIN; OLIVIER MUNOS; MARIE PANARIN

6. State and public organizations Water, inputs, mechanization, right to use public land resources, plan Productions planned Right to use land Resources Inputs (fertilizers…), water, mechanization Streams between administered and non- administered agrarian sub-systems (a) information (data, law, rules … ); (b) technical items (water, equipment, fertilizers … );(c) financial goods (credit, cash … ); (d) people (competences, labor forces … ) Organics, cash-flow Right to use the land Resources Recombining socio-technical networks in the Uzbekistani agrarian system RAPHAEL JOZAN; ROMAIN FLORENT; SAMUEL MARTIN; OLIVIER MUNOS; MARIE PANARIN

8. Administered Non-Administered Time Phase 1Phase 2Phase 3 1990 19982000-2002 2005 ? Recombining socio-technical networks in the Uzbekistani agrarian system RAPHAEL JOZAN; ROMAIN FLORENT; SAMUEL MARTIN; OLIVIER MUNOS; MARIE PANARIN