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Finding Value: From Vegas to Macau, and Everywhere in Between John D. Hock, CFA Chief Investment Officer Altrinsic Global Advisors.

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Presentation on theme: "Finding Value: From Vegas to Macau, and Everywhere in Between John D. Hock, CFA Chief Investment Officer Altrinsic Global Advisors."— Presentation transcript:

1 Finding Value: From Vegas to Macau, and Everywhere in Between John D. Hock, CFA Chief Investment Officer Altrinsic Global Advisors

2 2 Global equity boutique with offices in Greenwich, London, Sydney and Toronto Disciplined bottom-up fundamental intrinsic value process All-cap, all market, unconstrained in pursuit of investments Ideas typically fall into two categories: Type 1: Undervalued higher-quality companies with more sustainable return on capital profiles Type 2: Undervalued businesses in which profitability levels are depressed and/or are likely to improve 1 As of 06/30/14; Based upon a representative fully discretionary account with the global mandate; data are presented as supplemental information to a full disclosure presentation found in the appendix. Introduction to Altrinsic Global Advisors

3 As of 06/30/14; Source: The Federal Reserve Investment landscape Aggressive monetary policies continue to be the primary driver of what has been a synchronized rise in risky assets. 3

4 Investment landscape Rates near all-time low based upon any historical measure, including the Dutch 10-year bond yields going back to 1517. Netherlands 10-yr Government Bond Yields Source: Deutsche Bank, GFD 4

5 Investment landscape Share prices being led by the most speculative “theme” stocks in social media Bond markets being led by junk bonds and peripheral European sovereign debt Real estate is led by markets already in elevated territory Contemporary art auctions are producing towering values The $58 million Balloon Dog Source: Christie’s/AP 5

6 6 Source: Bloomberg and Sandler O’Neill Note: 2014E represents actual YTD through 05/30/14 annualized. Source: Bloomberg and Sandler O’Neill + Partners An increased focus on shareholder value creation and an acceleration of mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity are unlocking value as part of a theme that will likely persist. Health care, financials, energy, technology and consumer/media holdings are best positioned to benefit. Investment landscape

7 7 As of 06/30/14 Source: Bloomberg +10%+4%-17%-6%-9% Premium/Discount to long term average: World equities Close to long-term average but with big regional sector differences

8 8 As of 06/30/14 Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm Pre First World WarSecond World War, mid-century Post Berlin Wall A longer-term perspective

9 An “Absolute Value” focus QUALITY (i.e. ROE, ROIC sustainability) VALUE HIGH LOW HIGH Type 2 CompaniesType 1 Companies Undervalued businesses in which profitability levels are depressed and/or are likely to improve. Undervalued higher quality companies with more sustainable return on capital profiles. “Efficient Frontier” High-quality blue-chip franchises Diverse range of holdings across industries Japanese holdings Current positioning 9

10 OR ? Abenomics 10

11 11 As of 08/31/14 Source: Nomura, FactSet Japan has had seven prime ministers in six years. Confidence in leadership has been rare in Japan, and Abe’s influence should not be underestimated. Abe’s average approval ratings are now the highest of any prime minister in 30 years. Japan – can Abenomics work?

12 12 Is it different this time? Have we heard it all before? Bottom line – valuations reflect another false start As of 05/31/14 Source: FactSet Japan – valuations reflect another false start

13 13 Investors don’t believe in a Japanese recovery Source: FactSet, Bank of Japan, Nikkei Japan – rising sun or false dawn? Don’t underestimate the benefits of confidence in leadership

14 Japan – rising sun or false dawn? 14 But Japanese corporations appear to… Source: FactSet, Bank of Japan, Nikkei

15 15 Preliminary as of 08/31/14, Source: MSCI World (Net) Index. Regional portfolio weights, based upon a representative fully discretionary account with the global mandate, are presented as supplemental information to a full disclosure presentation found in the appendix. The securities identified above are not necessarily held by Altrinsic Global Advisors, LLC for all client portfolios, and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell these securities. It should not be assumed that any investment in these securities was, or will be, profitable. Mitsubishi Corporation Bank of Yokohama Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings SMC Suzuki Motor MS&AD Insurance Group Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Nintendo Inpex Kyowa Hakko Kirin Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Tokio Marine Japan Display Hitachi Golden Agri Resources Genpact Bangkok Bank Cheung Kong Hyundai Motor KB Financial Samsung Asia-Pacific Overweight Japan – value emerging in developing markets

16 Preliminary as of 08/31/14, Source: MSCI World (Net) Index. Regional portfolio weights, based upon a representative fully discretionary account with the global mandate, are presented as supplemental information to a full disclosure presentation found in the appendix. The securities identified above are not necessarily held by Altrinsic Global Advisors, LLC for all client portfolios, and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell these securities. It should not be assumed that any investment in these securities was, or will be, profitable. Deutsche Börse Willis Group AON Standard Chartered Unum Prudential Financial Allstate Brown & Brown Intercontinenta l Exchange Differentiated positioning in financials Our greatest relative risk Aggregate exposure gives a “false read” of underlying risks. Financial Exposure by Region 16

17 Our greatest relative risk Differentiated positioning in financials Preliminary as of 08/31/14, Source: MSCI World (Net) Index. Regional portfolio weights, based upon a representative fully discretionary account with the global mandate, are presented as supplemental information to a full disclosure presentation found in the appendix. The securities identified above are not necessarily held by Altrinsic Global Advisors, LLC for all client portfolios, and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell these securities. It should not be assumed that any investment in these securities was, or will be, profitable. Financial Exposure by Region Aggregate exposure gives a “false read” of underlying risks. Bank of Yokohama MS&AD Insurance Group Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Tokio Marine Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Bangkok Bank Sberbank KB Financial 17

18 18 Structural challenges in Europe co-exist with a fragile political environment. As of 08/31/14; Source: FactSet Capital Tangible Equity/Asset s Liquidity Loan/Deposit U.S.8.5%86% Japan5.2%72% Europe4.2%128% Banks still pose a significant risk and valuations are at lofty levels Private loan growth constrained 12% unemployment still very high As of 03/31/14; Source: Deutsche Bank, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, FactSet Europe and its banks – value or trap?

19 19 “Innovative” Lending Growth“Traditional” Lending Growth Total Social Financing Economic developments in China have far-reaching implications Accounts for 40% of the world’s base metal consumption, 23% of agricultural crop consumption, 20% of non-renewable energy consumption Imports are 30% of GDP, an important contributor to the global economy As of 06/30/14; Source: Bloomberg, CEIC. China’s economy has been supported by credit and financial “innovation” – an unstable foundation. China

20 As of 08/31/14. Based upon a representative fully discretionary account with the global mandate and presented as supplemental information to full disclosure presentation found in the appendix. The securities identified above are not necessarily held by Altrinsic Global Advisors, LLC for all client portfolios, and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell these securities. It should not be assumed that any investment in these securities was, or will be, profitable. QUALITY (i.e. ROE, ROIC sustainability) VALUE HIGH LOW HIGH “Efficient Frontier” New buys during 2014 20

21 Preliminary as of 08/31/14, Source: MSCI World (Net) Index. Sector and regional portfolio weights, based upon a representative fully discretionary account with the global mandate, are presented as supplemental information to a full disclosure presentation found in the appendix. 1 Based upon a representative fully discretionary account with the global mandate and presented as supplemental information to full disclosure presentation found in the appendix. Portfolio risk exposure 21

22 22 Equity markets are at all-time highs, interest rates are near historical lows, credit spreads are historically tight, and the correlation among many assets is at high levels. A high degree of confidence is being bestowed on policymakers. Not a time to be greedy Essential to evaluate symmetry of upside vs. downside payoff for individual stocks Margin of safety in stock selection is as important as ever in this environment At the aggregate level, global equities reflect fair value with large regional and sector differences. At the stock level, we see a growing source of new ideas with idiosyncratic characteristics and drivers. Summary

23 23 From a risk perspective, we believe that portfolio market risk has come down while company-specific risk factors have increased. Emphasizing concentration within portfolio – number of holdings at low end of historical range. Differentiated positioning: – Financials: significantly underweight European banks, overweight Japanese financials – Overweight Japan with a domestic focus – Overweight health care companies (valuation, renewed focus on shareholder value, and underappreciated innovation) – Embedded balance sheet strength – Blue-chip consumer franchises Increased M&A activity coupled with greater management focus on shareholders’ interests to further unlock value in the portfolio.

24 24 Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. ®CI Investments, the CI Investments design, are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc. This communication is published by CI as a general source of information and is not intended to provide personal legal, accounting, investment or tax advice. Facts and data provided by CI and other sources are believed to be reliable when posted; however, CI cannot guarantee that they are accurate or complete or that they will be current at all times. CI and its affiliates will not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages howsoever caused, arising out of the use of this presentation. FOR ADVISOR USE ONLY – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO CLIENTS Thank you


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