1. Why Washington Rarely Works and Campaigns Never Stop Change in the Electorate and the Elected : Ron Elving / NPR NASACT Conference August 25, 2015 Chicago

2. Overview What is Washington Doing Right Now? See You in September How Did We Get Gridlock…Again? 2016 Is Already Here It’s All About the Money

3. What Is Washington Doing Right Now? Nothing. They’re on vacation. 37 days to next fiscal cliff 14 days until Congress returns

4. Congress On 5 Week Vacation Even Though… No appropriations bills have passed House bills hung up on Confederate flag Senate in irons over riders, power struggle Veto threats complicate process No agreement on tactics

5. Congress On 5 Week Vacation Even Though… Import-Export Bank charter lapsed with renewal pending Highway fund extended only to December 1

6. What’s Up in September?  A collision of fiscal deadlines as bad as any in 5 years  Government runs out of funding Oct. 1  No appropriations bills passed as of now  Time squeeze on 17 days in September Vote on Iran Deal / Veto and Override Two Jewish High Holidays Visit of the Pope

7. What’s Up in September?  October 1 looms with multiple threats of shutdown  Dems demand end to caps from 2011 sequester  GOP demands end to funding for Planned Parenthood  GOP demands end to Obama deportation orders  GOP demands end to Obama EPA orders

8. And, Oh Yes…  Congress still needs to fund highways & transit beyond December 1  Leadership still wants to renew Export-Import Bank  Debt ceiling needs raising before default happens

9. One Good News Story: Decline of the Deficit (for now) Annual federal deficit back down below $500 B And below 3% of GDP (From $1.3 T and 8.7% in 2011) Now back to historic pattern levels Federal debt service at low rates Golden moment for entitlement reform, or…

10. So…How Did We Get Gridlock …Again? In 2008 and 2012 voters gave Democrats control of Washington In 2010 and 2014 they gave it to GOP Both parties are still in town, each insisting it has a popular mandate to govern.

11. The 2014 Elections Were Smashing for GOP R’s take Senate with 54-44-2 majority No Republican seats lost House majority: biggest since 1920s Full control in 29 legislatures Governors in 31 states

12. So None of These Goals Achieved Repeal Obamacare Lower individual/corporate tax rates Reverse executive action on deportations Limit abortion and gay marriage Eliminate federal functions Alter the arc of events overseas

13. But the Elections of 2014 Did Not Cancel 2012 Our national government is now chosen by two electorates one that turns out every two years and one that appears every four years.

14. The Presidential Electorate is Larger by Half (or more) 2004: 122 million votes cast 2006: 81 million 2008: 131 million votes cast 2010: 87 million 2012: 124 million votes cast 2014: 78 million

15. The Components That Grow In Presidential Years Younger More Diverse Fewer Are Married Less Educated /Affluent Less Conservative/ Republican

16. Why Can’t They Work Together? Legitimate differences of philosophy The Will of the People (just not the same ones)

17. The Partisan Zeitgeist Many in both parties would rather see problems fester or even worsen than take solutions from the other side… or even compromise with the other side.

18. Disappearing Center When system worked it relied on centrists (in both parties) as deal-makers and swing votes. Without this lubricant, the machinery overheats, damages itself and eventually breaks down

19. Where Have All the Centrists Gone? in 2012 national elections 95% of House districts voted the same party for President and the House …a dramatic increase since the 1980s

20. Where Have All the Centrists Gone? Republicans now hold 221 of the 226 House districts that Mitt Romney won in 2012 Democrats hold only 5

21. Where Have All the Centrists Gone? As districts are drawn to be deep red or deep blue party nominations go to the reddest and bluest. Once in office they stay partisan to fend off any challenge in NEXT primary

22. Senate Also Susceptible Not the Senate of Old Fewer governors, astronauts and other heroes More people elected from the House or from state legislatures Most current senators = first elected in 2008 or since

23. Senate Also Susceptible More states are voting for two Dems or two GOP senators… And even the most senior incumbents can be challenged in primaries. Even when they survive the primary challenge they are never as safe again and they show it…

24. Media as Enablers of Divide Average member watches FOX or MSNBC And reads National Review or The Nation DailyKos or RedState.com

25. How Can This Go On? We tell pollsters we do not like that kind of politician, but then we go to the polls and vote for them year after year. And that’s how you get a Congress with a Gallup approval rating under 20%

26. 2016 Elections: GOP House Safe Fortress redistricting undisturbed until 2020s Democratic vote super-concentrated in cities Suburbs/exurbs/rural areas increasingly GOP Carter won >1700 counties, Obama <700) Dem vote packed in fewer CDs

27. 2016 Elections: Senate Control  GOP now has 54 seats  GOP has to defend 24 in 2016  GOP seats include 6 in Blue/Purple States  NH / PA / OH / FL / WI / IL  Democrats must defend only 10 seats  Electorate may look more like 2006/2012

28. 2016: GOP’s Sweet Sixteen? Early Phenomenon : Donald Trump Likeliest to be on ticket: Jeb Bush Scott Walker Marco Rubio John Kasich

29. Second Tier / Also Rans Lindsay Graham Rick Perry Rick Santorum Bobby Jindal George Pataki Jim Gilmore  Ted Cruz  Rand Paul  Chris Christie  Ben Carson  Carly Fiorina  Mike Huckabee  Lindsay Graham  Rick Perry  Rick Santorum  Bobby Jindal  George Pataki  Jim Gilmore

30. Who Will Decide GOP Nominee?  Early money primary  Polls (national and key states)  Media (Fox & talk radio)  Debates (fewer, later, matter more)  Early primaries IA / NH / NV / SC  The South (SEC primary)

31. 2016 Democrats: One Question Can Hillary right the ship? Email travail Enthusiasm gap Other campaign woes “Third term of Obama” “Third term of Bill Clinton”

32. 2016 Democrats Seek Alternatives  Bernie Sanders (Feel the Bern)  Martin O’Malley  James Webb  Lincoln Chafee  (Joe Biden)  (Al Gore)  (Elizabeth Warren)

33. 2016: It’s All About the Money In 2016, total spending for federal offices will exceed $7 billion. More than ever before will come from a select group of mega-donors.

34. 2016: It’s All About the Money: Total Spending for Federal Office 2016: President & Congress $7 billion (projected) 2014: Midterm $4 billion 2012: President & Congress $6.3 billion 2010: Midterm $3.6 billion 2008: President & Congress $5.3 billion 2006: Midterm $2.8 billion 2004: President & Congress $4.1 billion

35. 2016: It’s All About the Money Big money goes to candidate-supporting PACs Not to the candidates / Jeb 11m to 108m ratio Half this PAC money coming in donations of $1 million or more Cruz campaign 95% from 5 donors

36. 2016: It’s All About the Money Candidate CampaignPACs Bush11.4m108.5 m HRC 47 m20 m Cruz14 m 38 m Sanders15 m0

37. 2016: It’s All About the Money Financiers largely determine who runs. Money determines who keeps running. Ultimately, money may decide who wins.

38. Review What is Washington Doing Right Now? See You in September How Did We Get Gridlock…Again? 2016 Is Already Here It’s All About the Money