Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

HEALTHCARE SECTOR STOCK PRESENTATIONSP-35 Michael Mahaney Tianna Nguyen Edward Poitras Matthew Pry.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "HEALTHCARE SECTOR STOCK PRESENTATIONSP-35 Michael Mahaney Tianna Nguyen Edward Poitras Matthew Pry."— Presentation transcript:

1 HEALTHCARE SECTOR STOCK PRESENTATIONSP-35 Michael Mahaney Tianna Nguyen Edward Poitras Matthew Pry

2 SIM P ORTFOLIO SIM Portfolio Overview

3 H EALTHCARE SECTOR IN RE THE SIM PORTFOLIO Healthcare Sector Holdings

4 HEALTHCARE RECOMMENDATIONS Wellpoint Cardinal Health TEVA Hold Genentech Sell Johnson & Johnson Buy Stock Recommendations

5 GENENTECH RECOMMENDATION: SELL

6 G ENENTECH, I NC. DNA DNA – DCF Model Current Price: $73.92 DCF Target: $78.00 5% upside potential

7 G ENENTECH, I NC. DNA DNA - Valuation For comparable companies DNA had the highest forward P/E ratio, but also the highest expected growth rate.

8 GENENTECH, INC. DNA DNA – Growth Rate Growth rate estimates have steadily fallen since 2005 and so has Forward P/E Growing at 22.3% per year would make DNA the size of today’s JNJ in terms of sales in just 10 years

9 G ENENTECH, I NC. DNA DNA – Product Sales Three drugs make up over 50% of total revenues

10 GENENTECH, INC. DNA DNA – Pipeline In the short-term expect the FDA to approve existing DNA products to treat additional diseases New compounds will not make it to market for two to three years

11 G ENENTECH, I NC. DNA DNA – Summary Strong company with competitive advantage Pipeline full of projects for existing products New drugs some years away – uncertain outcome Expected growth rates seem too optimistic Conclusion: Sell and reinvest proceeds in better prospects

12 JOHNSON & JOHNSON RECOMMENDATION: BUY

13 J OHNSON & J OHNSON JNJ Current Price: $62.08 Intrinsic Value: $87.4 Upside Potential: 40.8% Dividend Yield: 2.7% Why it is cheap: MD&D’s largest division Cordis (drug- eluting stents) has seen an unexpected decline in sales. Pharma will loose patent protection on its #1 and #4 drugs and its #2 drug is experiencing a decline in sales. In all representing 19% of sales. Investment Thesis: All of the downside is priced into the current stock price. Several of the uncertainties surrounding JNJ have large potential upsides. Catalysts in the near future.

14 J OHNSON & J OHNSON Cordis sales of $4,088MM represent 7.6% of overall sales and 20.2% of MD&D sales. The world-wide PCI procedures are down 13% and the DES market is down 21% –Concern over late stent thrombosis in DES –Penetration is rebounding and should stabilize upward of 70% –Possible PCI recovery as drug therapy results mature Upside –Conor Med Systems Purchase –DES homogeneous test results in late Fall JNJ - Medical Devices & Diagnosis

15 J OHNSON & J OHNSON Top 3 drugs –#1 Risperdal off patent in June of 2008. Has successor in Invega. (schizophrenia) –#2 Procrit ODAC panel and CMS decisions down 14% (anemia) –#4 Topamax off patent in March of 2009 (epilepsy) Nature of Pharma –Procit (kidney) & Lipitor (example W&L) –On track for 10 to 13 new compounds by the end of 2007. JNJ - Pharmaceuticals

16 J OHNSON & J OHNSON September 9-12 ODAC Panel Full year of PCH integration 3 months of drug therapy in stable patients $10 BB stock buy back 1.3% workforce reduction JNJ - Catalysts

17 R ECOMMENDATIONS Healthcare Sector Recommendations Sell DNA – 2.19% position Add to Johnson & Johnson position – 0.5% Net decrease from 5.49% sector overweight position to 3.8%  Although we recommended to buy hospital facility stocks to better diversify inside the healthcare sector, bad debt expense, insurance, labor costs, and high P/E’s persuaded us otherwise at this time. SIM Holdings After Recommendation Conclusions TEVA CAH WLP Hold DNA Sell JNJ Buy

18 QUESTIONS

19 DCF MODELS

20 JNJ DCF

21 JNJ Segment Data

22 HOLD STOCKS

23 C ARDINAL HEALTH, I NC. CAH Price Paid – 72.47 Current Loss – 5.66 or 8.45% Pros – Industry leader and business growth is still seeing double digits Cons – Tight margins and competition putting pressure on earnings Price Target – 78.50 Current Price – 67.50 Upside potential – 17%

24 W ELLPOINT, I NC. WLP Price Paid – 81.78 Current Loss – 7.33 or 8.96% Pros – Growth in medicare/medicaid and booming demographic increases health benefit plan subscribers Cons – Competition, nationalized healthcare Current Price – 74.45

25 T EVA P HARMACEUTICALS TEVA: Prices and Current Holdings SU07 SIM Wt.4.85% SU 07 Dollar$1,231,152 Current Price $42.62 [08.01.07] Price Target$46.02 Upside potential 3.41% DCF Model Reference Stock Prices: 3 months Pros Earnings reported 08.01.07 and exceeded expectations Generic drug manufacturer that is a growing company Stock is an ADR Cons Risks associated with being an Israeli company High competition


Download ppt "HEALTHCARE SECTOR STOCK PRESENTATIONSP-35 Michael Mahaney Tianna Nguyen Edward Poitras Matthew Pry."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google