Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Manish, William, & Sarah. CURRENT HOLDINGSSUGGESTED HOLDINGS  AT&T0%  Verizon0%  China Mobile Ltd.2.41%  NII Holdings0.98% Buy:  AT&T2.14%  NII.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Manish, William, & Sarah. CURRENT HOLDINGSSUGGESTED HOLDINGS  AT&T0%  Verizon0%  China Mobile Ltd.2.41%  NII Holdings0.98% Buy:  AT&T2.14%  NII."— Presentation transcript:

1 Manish, William, & Sarah

2 CURRENT HOLDINGSSUGGESTED HOLDINGS  AT&T0%  Verizon0%  China Mobile Ltd.2.41%  NII Holdings0.98% Buy:  AT&T2.14%  NII Holdings0.27% Sell  China Mobile Ltd.2.41%

3  Smallest company of the three with a market cap of 3.93B  Competes in a foreign, niche market in South and Latin America  Has a high beta of 2.02 and behaves more like a growth stock  Is a young company with limited historical data.

4  Growth:  Credit:  History: Spin off of Nextel Rapid growth in Latin and Central America Downturn in profits associated w/unemployment and Mexico problems (N1H1, drug trafficking decreased tourism) 200920102011 Projected Sales 5.27B 4.80B 4.20B Projected Earnings350M320M250M 200620072008 ROE 2.73.2 GPM 72% 73%

5  Valuation measures: Historical price ratios—the ratios have currently contracted, most likely due to the economy Future valuations—as the economy improves, the ratios should expand  Relative to the industry and S&P 500 The ratios have contracted  Target price: $33.86  Major determinants of value: operating margin on service revenues, depreciation expense and capital expenditures

6 Relative to Industry HighLowMedianCurrentTarget Multiple Target E, S, B, etc/Share Target Price P/Trailing E3.20.151.40.19 P/Forward E2.20.041.30.04 P/B7.91.34.41.5 P/S3.30.92.01.1 P/CF5.71.22.71.5 EntValue/EBIT DA 4.101.062.671.28 P/Trailing E3.20.532.00.63 P/Forward E2.30.601.40.62 P/B4.70.82.90.8 P/S3.40.82.10.8 P/CF3.00.41.70.5 EntValue/EBIT DA 2.920.551.890.67 P/Forward E34.36.722.59.315.92.540.30 P/S5.40.53.20.72.033.765.66 P/B14.41.28.31.75.013.969.32 P/EBITDA20.381.9812.822.957.98.063.00 P/CF32.82.818.74.111.45.765.54

7  Buy 0.27% of NIHD to bring the holding up to 1.25% of the total SIM  Primary catalysts Valuation: 80%/20% DCF/Valuation model gives a 1 year target price of $33.86  Risks: Double Dip recession (high beta) Political uncertainty

8  China Mobile provides a wide variety of mobile communication services in 31 provinces in China  Largest wireless provider in the world by customer  In January 2009, the company started offering 3G services  Beta:.91

9

10  Sell 2.41% of CHL  Primary Catalyst: successful 3G network  Risks: High penetration rate Strong competition in Chinese market Market in certain large cities showing signs of maturity iPhone?? Potential deal between Apple and China Unicom (competitor of China Mobile)

11 AT &T -Company Overview  Largest telecom company in US ( Market cap $147.68 billion)  Best brand in Telecom - Ranked no. 1 company in telecom sector by fortune magazine (11 times in last 14 years)  Business Segmentation Wireline Services – Voice and Data (55% of total revenues) Wireless Communications and Services (39% of total revenues) Advertising and publishing (4% of total revenues) Other Segment (2% of total revenues)  Major competitors - Verizon, Sprint Nextel Corp. and T- mobile USA, Inc.

12 Financials Overview ($MM)20082007200620052004Trend Revenue$124,028$118,928$63,055$43,848$40,733Up Net Income$12,867$11,951$7,356$4,870$4,487Up EPS2.171.951.891.421.78Up Total Assets$265,245$275,644$270,634$145,632$110,265Up Dividend1.611.471.351.31.26Up

13 Sensitivity Analysis Current Price $24.45 Implied equity value/share$36.27 Target Price$26.99 Upside to DCF 48.35% Discount Rate Terminal Grow th Rate 9.51010.51111.51212.5 2.540.2337.4635.0332.8830.9829.2827.75 342.0238.9436.2733.9431.8830.0628.42 3.544.0940.6537.6935.1332.9030.9229.17 446.5542.6439.3336.5034.0431.8930.00 4.549.5045.0041.2538.0835.3533.0030.93 553.1047.8343.5139.9136.8734.2631.99 5.557.6051.2946.2342.0938.6335.7133.20

14 Valuation Analysis Absolute Valuation MedianCurrent#Your Target Multiple *Your Target E, S, B, etc/Share Your Target Price (F x G) P/Forward E16.08.512.52.0125.13 P/S2.11.11.321.8228.37 P/B2.21.51.716.2727.66 P/EBITDA5.232.893.48.4628.76 P/CF6.73.946.2725.08

15 Recommendation  Buy 2.14% of AT&T Primary catalysts  Valuation: 80%/20% DCF/Valuation model gives a 1 year target price of $34.14  Brand name, Market Cap and ability to form alliance- (Apple iPhone 3G)  Pros: 2008 annual report marked  Consolidated revenues up by more than 4 percent to $124 billion in year.  Reported earnings per share grew by 11.3 percent to $2.16 per share.  Returned $15.6 billion to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases.  Delivered strong cash flow - 25th consecutive year of dividend growth  Cons: Slow growth due to cut throat competition and worsening economy

16  Buy AT&T (2.14%) Very large upside, largest telecom company in the US  Buy NII Holdings (0.27%) Niche market, upside.  Sell China Mobile (2.41%) Reaching its maturity, small downside, increasing competition

17


Download ppt "Manish, William, & Sarah. CURRENT HOLDINGSSUGGESTED HOLDINGS  AT&T0%  Verizon0%  China Mobile Ltd.2.41%  NII Holdings0.98% Buy:  AT&T2.14%  NII."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google