1. International Seminar of Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators Moscow, 17-19 November 2010 Construction of Cyclical Indicators for Ukraine on the BTS Basis Maryna Pugachova Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research of State Statistics Committee of Ukraine

2. BTS in Ukraine Since 1997: industry; construction; retail trade; transport; agriculture; investment survey. Since 2010 - non-financial services sector

3. Organizers: Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research; State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (SSCU).

4. Our functions are: adopting of methodology; designing of the questionnaires; treatment of data (scanning & completion data base); preparing different analytical reviews (news releases for Internet site, reports for respondents, bulletins for government).

5. SSCU functions are: forming the samples in regions in accordance with our methodological recommendations; distribution of questionnaires blanks; collecting of completed questionnaires; checking of the codes in questionnaires.

6. Synthetic indicators for: industry, construction, retail trade, transport, agriculture. Global synthetic indicator for business climate

7. Picture 1. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in comparable prices

8. Picture 2. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in constant prices

9. The set of composite indicators by economic sector Branches of economy (Economic sectors) Indicators from BTS For Leading synthetic indicator For Coincident synthetic indicator INDUSTRYFuture Business Situation Current Business Situation Future ProductionPast Production Total Order Books Foreign Order Books – Stocks Future Orders BooksFuture Employment – Capacity

10. The set of composite indicators by economic sector Branches of economy (Economic sectors) Indicators from BTS For Leading synthetic indicator For Coincident synthetic indicator CONSTRUCTIONFuture ActivityPast Activity Order TendencyCost Tendency Future Cost TendencyOrder Tendency – Future DebtsWork Plan Future Business SituationCost Level Future Employment – Debts on Hand Current Business Situation

11. The set of composite indicators by economic sector Branches of economy Indicators from BTS For Leading synthetic indicator For Coincident synthetic indicator RETAIL TRADEFuture Local Order BookFuture Employment Future Foreign Order BookFinancial Results Future Financial Results TRANSPORTWork planWork done Present demand Future demandFuture Employment Future Business Situation– Capacity Future CompetitionCurrent Business Situation

12. The set of composite indicators by economic sector Branches of economy (Economic sectors) Indicators from BTS For Leading synthetic indicator For Coincident synthetic indicator AGRICULTUREFuture Production-AnimalPast Production-Animal Total Order Books-Animal Total Order Books-Plant Forecast Order Books Animal Current Business Situation, level Forecast Order Books Plant Current Business Situation, tendency Future Business Situation

13. Picture 3. Leading indicator for industry

14. Picture 4. Coincident indicator for industry

15. Picture 5. Leading indicator for construction

16. Picture 6. Leading indicator for agriculture

17. Picture 7. Leading Global indicator for business climate

18. Ifo segmentation method Segment a (demand weakness and supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors that constitute demand or supply-side bottlenecks: “low demand”, “shortage of materials”, “high taxes”, “shortage of equipment”, “out-dated equipment”, “shortage of working capital”, “lack of qualified personnel”. Segment b.1 (pronounced supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and aggravation of future business situation. Segment b.2 (temporary supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and unchanged future business situation. Segment c (without cyclic disturbances). No supply-side bottlenecks, “good” and “satisfactory” assessments of the financial and economic condition. Segment d.1 (pronounced demand weakness). The only bottleneck is “demand weakness”, added by the expected aggravation of the business situation. Segment d.2 (temporary demand weakness). The only bottleneck is “demand weakness”, added by the expected unchanged (the same as in the past quarter) business situation.

19. Picture 8. Segmentation of industrial enterprises at industry level in accordance with cyclic categories

20. Picture 9. Segmentation of industrial enterprises manufacturing of investment goods

21. Thank you for the attention!