1. Economics 172 Issues in African Economic Development Lecture 25 April 25, 2006

2. Economics 1722 Outline: (1)Barkan (1994) (2)Miguel (2004) on Kenya versus Tanzania

3. Economics 1723 Kenya is extremely ethnically diverse (as is Tanzania): Ethnic GroupPercentage Kikuyu (Embu, Meru)28* (Kenyatta’s group) Luhya14 Luo13 Kalenjin12 (Moi’s group) Kamba11 Nomadic groups in north7 (Small numbers of South Asians, Whites) Politics in Kenya

4. Economics 1724 His political coalition consisted of ethnic groups previously marginalized during the colonial and Kenyatta periods: Kalenjin, Maasai, coastal groups Public policy in the Moi period (1978-2002)

5. Economics 1725 His political coalition consisted of ethnic groups previously marginalized during the colonial and Kenyatta periods: Kalenjin, Maasai, coastal groups Important policy shifts: (1) Increased tax rates on agricultural exports (2) Replaced Kikuyu civil servants, military officials with loyal Kalenjins Public policy in the Moi period (1978-2002)

6. Economics 1726 Additional policy changes: (3) Public investments in health, education, roads shifted to Moi’s Rift Valley stronghold: Central (33% pop.): 44% funding in 1979 to 16% by 1987 Rift Valley (33% pop.): 32% funding in 1979 to 57% in 1987 Public policy in the Moi period (1978-2002)

7. Economics 1727 Additional policy changes: (3) Public investments in health, education, roads shifted to Moi’s Rift Valley stronghold: Central (33% pop.): 44% funding in 1979 to 16% by 1987 Rift Valley (33% pop.): 32% funding in 1979 to 57% in 1987 (4) Doubled the number of university slots, but not funding. This led to dramatic deterioration in the quality of instruction. Founded “Moi University” (5) Doubled the size of the civil service (133,000 to 272,000), but many were patronage posts Public policy in the Moi period (1978-2002)

8. Economics 1728 There was an attempted coup by Kikuyu Air Force officers in 1982, put down by Moi In the aftermath of the coup, Moi cracked down on the opposition, banned opposition parties, imprisoned hundreds of peaceful dissidents, banned all ethnic organizations. In 1986 he revoked the independence of the civil service and judiciary. Political opposition to Moi

9. Economics 1729 There was an attempted coup by Kikuyu Air Force officers in 1982, put down by Moi In the aftermath of the coup, Moi cracked down on the opposition, banned opposition parties, imprisoned hundreds of peaceful dissidents, banned all ethnic organizations. In 1986 he revoked the independence of the civil service and judiciary. With opposition and public oversight weakened, Moi and his cronies became increasingly corrupt: (1) Massive kickbacks from foreign investors (2) Chartering banks, and then looting their deposits Political opposition to Moi

10. Economics 17210 There was an attempted coup by Kikuyu Air Force officers in 1982, put down by Moi In the aftermath of the coup, Moi cracked down on the opposition, banned opposition parties, imprisoned hundreds of peaceful dissidents, banned all ethnic organizations. In 1986 he revoked the independence of the civil service and judiciary. With opposition and public oversight weakened, Moi and his cronies became increasingly corrupt: (1) Massive kickbacks from foreign investors (2) Chartering banks, and then looting their deposits (3) Smuggling food into the country, selling at profit (4) Printing money for patronage  high inflation Political opposition to Moi

11. Economics 17211 The rigged 1988 national election was a turning point In early 1990, former ministers Kenneth Matiba, Charles Rubia called for restoration of democracy Political changes in Kenya

12. Economics 17212 The rigged 1988 national election was a turning point In early 1990, former ministers Kenneth Matiba, Charles Rubia called for restoration of democracy In July 1990 large protests were organized by students, church groups in Nairobi to call for democracy. 28 protesters were killed on July 7, 1990 (“Saba Saba Day”) In 1991 Matiba, Rubia and Oginga Odinga founded the united opposition party Forum for Restoration of Democracy (FORD) Political changes in Kenya

13. Economics 17213 The rigged 1988 national election was a turning point In early 1990, former ministers Kenneth Matiba, Charles Rubia called for restoration of democracy In July 1990 large protests were organized by students, church groups in Nairobi to call for democracy. 28 protesters were killed on July 7, 1990 (“Saba Saba Day”) In 1991 Matiba, Rubia and Oginga Odinga founded the united opposition party Forum for Restoration of Democracy (FORD) In November 1991 international donors imposed explicitly political conditions on further aid. Aid suspended for six months Political changes in Kenya

14. Economics 17214 Moi relented and in December 1991 lifted the ban on opposition parties, and called an election for late 1992 Ethnic clashes during democratization

15. Economics 17215 Moi relented and in December 1991 lifted the ban on opposition parties, and called an election for late 1992 However, from late 1991-1993, KANU is reported to have organized Kalenjin youth militia groups to terrorize and expel non-Kalenjin farmers in Rift Valley Roughly 1500 were killed and 300,000 mainly Kikuyu and Luhya farmers were made homeless Ethnic clashes during democratization

16. Economics 17216 Perhaps surprisingly, Moi easily won the multiparty elections in 1992, and again in 1997. Why? Multiparty elections in 1992, 1997

17. Economics 17217 Perhaps surprisingly, Moi easily won the multiparty elections in 1992, and again in 1997. Why? The political opposition in both elections was split along ethnic lines. For instance: Kenya African National Union (Kalenjin, Maasai) Democratic Party (Kikuyu) Ford-Asili, NDP (Luo) Ford-Kenya (Luhya) Social Democratic Party (Kamba) Islamic Party of Kenya (Coast – eventually banned) Safina (Whites, Asians, others in Nairobi) Multiparty elections in 1992, 1997

18. Economics 17218 Moi was constitutionally prohibited from running again in 2002. He chose Uhuru Kenyatta as KANU candidate Raila Odinga (Oginga’s son) was hoping to be the KANU candidate. He left the ruling party and joined the opposition NARC (National Rainbow Coalition) Democratization in 2002

19. Economics 17219 Moi was constitutionally prohibited from running again in 2002. He chose Uhuru Kenyatta as KANU candidate Raila Odinga (Oginga’s son) was hoping to be the KANU candidate. He left the ruling party and joined the opposition NARC (National Rainbow Coalition) For the first time all of the opposition groups were united, behind Odinga (Luo), Mwai Kibaki (Kikuyu), Michael Wamalwa (Luhya), Charity Ngilu (Kamba). NARC won a major victory in the 12/2002 elections The “deal” was that if they won, Kibaki would be President and a “strong” prime minister post would be created in the constitution for Odinga Democratization in 2002

20. Economics 17220 During constitutional negotiations in 2003-4, Kibaki went back on his promise to create a powerful prime minister position for Odinga, preferring a ceremonial position. This has strained the government. The government tried to pass their version of the constitution by referendum but were defeated in 2005 Is Democracy enough?

21. Economics 17221 During constitutional negotiations in 2003-4, Kibaki went back on his promise to create a powerful prime minister position for Odinga, preferring a ceremonial position. This has strained the government. The government tried to pass their version of the constitution by referendum but were defeated in 2005 Anti-corruption czar John Githongo uncovered a massive corruption scandal involving the VP and three ministers, “Anglo Leasing”, which has further eroded support for the government Is Democracy enough?

22. Economics 17222 During constitutional negotiations in 2003-4, Kibaki went back on his promise to create a powerful prime minister position for Odinga, preferring a ceremonial position. This has strained the government. The government tried to pass their version of the constitution by referendum but were defeated in 2005 Anti-corruption czar John Githongo uncovered a massive corruption scandal involving the VP and three ministers, “Anglo Leasing”, which has further eroded support for the government All sides are jockeying for position in the 2007 elections. Which coalitions will form? What options do the Kenyan people have? Is Democracy enough?

23. Economics 17223 Whiteboard #1

24. Economics 17224 Whiteboard #2

25. Economics 17225 Whiteboard #3

26. Economics 17226 Whiteboard #4

27. Economics 17227 Whiteboard #5

28. Economics 17228 Map of Africa