1. Future Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases in Asia-Pacific Nares Damrongchai, Ponpiboon Satangput, Greg Tegart, and Chatri Sripaipan APEC Center for Technology Foresight Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 nares@nstda.or.th

2. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Introduction Biosecurity and Infectious Diseases Biosecurity is the policies and measures taken to protect from biological harm. It encompasses the prevention and mitigation from diseases in human and animals, and bioterrorism that impacts the economy, environment, and public health. More technically, dealing with biosecurity can be considered in terms of information generation and collection, information management, information analysis, and use of analysis. One major threat to biosecurity is the outbreak of infectious diseases. Infectious diseases account for a quarter of all human mortality but developing countries have a disproportionate share because of poverty, limited access to health care, drug resistance and changing food supplies due to impact climate change on land and water supplies.

3. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Introduction Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) Emerging and re-emerging infections are increasing in the Pacific Rim. These include both diseases that are new (e.g. SARS, Avian Influenza) and diseases that are old but re–emerging as health threats (e.g. Tuberculosis). They are important to our APEC community because: –They cause preventable illness and death –They drain our economies through the direct costs of treatment and hospitalization –They generate indirect costs from time lost from work and reduced purchasing power –They lead to unfounded trade sanctions that hinder economic activity

4. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Introduction Converging Technologies

5. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Methodology Conduct of the Project: Overview Literature Review + Bibliometric Analysis Online Survey Scenario Planning Roadmapping I Roadmapping II Ph as e II Ph as e I Aim to capture the trends of emerging infectious diseases from the publication trends Aim to get experts involved in verifying the trends of emerging infectious diseases resulted from bibliometric analysis Aim to exchange experts’ views about the severity of infectious diseases and the key research domains Aim to develop roadmaps of technology research domain and identify key technology applications to combat EID. Aim to develop roadmaps of technology applications that have high impact to combat EID. Final Symposium Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region’s capacities that contribute to the successful prevention and management of EID

6. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Methodology Scenarios Scenarios were used in attempts to develop internally consistent stories about possible futures where emerging infectious diseases becomes threat in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 10 years and beyond. Thirty three experts from seven Asia-Pacific economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop the scenarios. Key drivers and uncertainties of future change relevant to the study were identified. By working back (backcasting) from these pictures of the future, critical turning points were identified. The scenarios: –“Malaria in Miami 2017” –“20,000 People Now Confirmed Dead from Mystery Disease” –“Mysterious Death” –“Emerging Rainforest Syndrome (RFS)”

7. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Methodology Technology Roadmapping

8. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID Life Cycle Model Source: Adapted from Dr. Silberglitt, Rand Corporation

9. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Results and policy impact/implications The Technology Roadmap

10. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Results and policy impact/implications Policy Implications Formal announcement of the project conclusion has not yet taken place (a full report is under preparation), hence no policy commitment at this stage. Nevertheless, there are already a number of the activities related to the foresight project initiated during the conduct of the project that also raised the awareness in biosecurity throughout the region. – A decision model was proposed to identify and evaluate an optimum mix of interventions and measures for a specific disease as improvements in health infrastructure, which can concurrently benefit more than just a single disease. (Proposing Institution: Rand Corporation, USA) – A new network system based on a fully scientific base, and this should be established as a research and diagnosis center of infectious diseases among APEC economies was suggested. (Proposing Institution: RIKEN, Japan) – A project on developing policy recommendations of EID surveillance system for the Thai government was informed by the result of the project. (Proposing Institution: National Science and Technology Development Agency, Thailand)

11. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Conclusions This project has created a new network of knowledgeable and concerned scientist and technologists in the field of biosecurity in the APEC region. The translation of research outputs into policy is of critical importance. Particularly in the APEC region, security and emerging infectious diseases is given high priority as evident in the APEC Leaders Declaration. However, the application of these new technologies in developing economies needs to be undertaken with great care, recognizing that there are major infrastructural, cultural and social differences. The “people factors” are crucial features of disease management through all phases of the life cycle model from detection to response. This project is a contribution to the better understanding of the provision of accelerated technological responses to combating EID and biosecurity in the APEC region and of the role of science and technology in providing those responses through the concept of converging technologies.

12. Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases Acknowledgments Dr. Yoshiko Okamoto of Japan’s RIKEN and Dr. Stephen Prowse who contributed in the Diagnostic Technology Roadmap. Mr. Jack Smith of Defence R&D Canada and Dr. Richard Silberglitt of the Rand Corporation who have in particular given ideas and suggestions throughout the project. This project is funded by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the National Science and Technology Development Agency, Ministry of Science and Technology, Royal Thai government. Special thanks to: