1. Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union Lecture 13 Sociology SOCI 20182

2. Schedule of student presentations Monday, February 22 ­ No lectures, to give students more time to prepare their presentations Wednesday, February 24 ­ No lectures, to give students more time to prepare their presentations

3. Schedule of student presentations Monday, March 1 ­ Student presentations: 1. Armenia, (Danny Fittante) 2. Belarus, (Neil Sobin) 3. Latvia, (Roman Sanders) 4. Estonia, (Rebecca Plummer)

4. Schedule of student presentations Wednesday, March 3 ­ Student presentations: 1. Georgia, (Erin Pappas) 2. Azerbaijan, (Iliya Gutin) 3. Uzbekistan, (Ross Smeltzer) Discussion (if time permits)

5. Student presentations Overall description of the country (geographic position, population structure, natural increase/decrease) Trends in fertility and family formation after the independence Trends in mortality after the independence Population aging Migration Similarities and dissimilarities with Russia List of sources used (data sources and publications) Duration: 15 min (15-20 slides) If you cannot find information about all topics listed above, please use data that you are able to find.

6. Ethnic Differentials in Mortality

7. Based on the Study of Ethnic Differentials in Adult Mortality in Central Asia Michel Guillot (PI), University of Wisconsin-Madison Natalia Gavrilova, University of Chicago Tetyana Pudrovska, University of Wisconsin-Madison

9. Background on Kyrgyzstan Former Soviet republic; became independent in 1991 Population: 5.2 million (2006) Experienced a severe economic depression after break-up of Soviet Union GNI per capita = 440 USD; 28 th poorest country in the world (2005) 48% of population below national poverty line (2001)

10. Ethnic Groups in Kyrgyzstan Native Central Asian groups: Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik, Turkmen, Uzbek (Sunni Muslims) Slavs: Russian, Ukrainian, Bielorussian Kyrgyzstan, 1999 census: Central Asians: 79% of pop. (Kyrgyz 65%) Slavs: 14% of pop. (Russian 12%)

11. Recorded trends in adult mortality (20-60 years)

12. Mortality paradox? Soviet period: Russians/Slavs occupied dominant positions in the socio-economic structure of Central Asian societies (Kahn 1993)

13. Mortality paradox? Slavic females more educated than Central Asian females (1989 and 1999 censuses) Slavic males: educational advantage not so clear – varies by age (1989 and 1999 censuses) Slavic households less poor than Central Asians (1993 World Bank poverty survey) Infant mortality lower among Slavs (Soviet and post-Soviet period)

14. Proportion of individuals with post-secondary education, by age and ethnicity, in 1989 census. Females

15. Mortality paradox? Slavic females more educated than Central Asian females (1989 and 1999 censuses) Slavic males: educational advantage not so clear – varies by age (1989 and 1999 censuses) Slavic households less poor than Central Asians (1993 World Bank poverty survey) Infant mortality lower among Slavs (Soviet and post-Soviet period)

16. Proportion of individuals with post-secondary education, by age and ethnicity, in 1989 census. Males.

17. Mortality paradox? Slavic females more educated than Central Asian females (1989 and 1999 censuses) Slavic males: educational advantage not so clear – varies by age (1989 and 1999 censuses) Slavic households less poor than Central Asians (1993 World Bank poverty survey) Infant mortality lower among Slavs (Soviet and post-Soviet period)

19. Mortality paradox? Slavic females more educated than Central Asian females (1989 and 1999 censuses) Slavic males: educational advantage not so clear – varies by age (1989 and 1999 censuses) Slavic households less poor than Central Asians (1993 World Bank poverty survey) Infant mortality lower among Slavs (Soviet and post-Soviet period)

20. IMR by ethnicity, 1958-2003, Kyrgyzstan

21. Data Unpublished population and death tabulations since 1959 collected from local archives Individual census records – 1999 Individual death records – 1998- 1999 obtained from national statistical office

24. Possible explanations for mortality paradox Data artifacts Migration effects (esp. 1989-99) Cultural effects

25. Data artifacts? Could the lower recorded mortality among Central Asian adults be due to lower data quality among them (coverage of deaths, age misreporting)?

26. Migration effects? 1/3 of Russian population has left Kyrgyzstan since 1991 Could the increased disparity between Russian and Kyrgyz adult mortality be due to selective migration (healthy migrant effect)?

27. Cultural effects? Culture may affect mortality in various ways:  individual health and lifestyle behaviors (e.g., diet, smoking, alcohol, use of preventive care)  family structure and social networks (denser social networks may produce lower stress levels and better health) Could different cultural practices among Slavs and Central Asians explain the observed mortality differentials?

28. Data artifacts? Intercensal estimates of death registration coverage above age 60 (Guillot, 2004): 90+ % as early as 1959 in urban areas coverage in rural areas was low initially (~50%) but caught up with urban areas in 1980s Total population: 92% for 1989-99 period Adult deaths (20-59) usually better reported than deaths 60+

30. Health selection?

31. Cohort-specific changes in educational attainment, Males, 1989-99

32. Cohort-specific changes in educational attainment, Females, 1989-99

33. Cultural effects? Analysis of causes of death by ethnicity, 1998-99 Calculations based on micro-data Deaths: vital registration (1998-99) Exposure: census (March 1999) Ages 20-59 Ethnicity: Central Asians vs. Slavs ~20,000 death records; ~2.2 million census records

34. Age-standardized Death Rates at working ages (per 100000), 1998-99, by cause and ethnicity, Males

35. Contribution of causes of death to the difference in life expectancy at working ages ( 40 e 20 ) between Slavs and Central Asians Males (total difference = 2.90 years)

36. Age-standardized Death Rates at working ages (per 100,000). Detailed Injuries, Males

37. Age-standardized Death Rates at working ages (per 100,000), 1998-99, by cause and ethnicity, Females

38. Contribution of causes of death to the difference in life expectancy at working ages ( 40 e 20 ) between Slavs and Central Asians Females (total difference =.28 years)

39. Age-standardized Death Rates at working ages (per 100,000) Detailed Injuries, Females

40. Alcohol-related Causes of Death (Chronic alcoholism, Alcohol psychoses, Alcohol cirrhosis of the liver, Accidental poisoning by alcohol) Age-standardized Death Rates at working ages (per 100,000)

41. Multivariate analysis Do ethnic mortality differentials at adult ages remain once we account for differences in education and urban/rural residence? Negative binomial regression Dependent variable: deaths from all causes; deaths by major cause (7) Explanatory variables: exposure, dummy variables for age, ethnicity, urban/rural residence, education (3 cat.) Males and Females analyzed separately Model 1: age, ethnicity Model 2: age, ethnicity, education, residence

42. Males, all causes of death

43. Risk Ratio Slavs/CA Males

44. Risk Ratio Slavs/CA Females NS

45. Conclusions Excess mortality among adult Slavs (Soviet and post-Soviet period) is not likely due to data artifacts or migration effects Excess mortality due to important ethnic differences in cause-specific mortality – alcohol and suicide in particular Differences remain unexplained by education or residence

46. Conclusions Role of cultural characteristics? Alcohol tied to cultural practices (“culture of alcohol” among Russians; Impact of Islam for Central Asians) Denser social networks and stronger social support among Central Asian ethnic groups?

47. Ethnic Differentials in Fertility An example of Kyrgyzstan

48. Fertility by birth cohort and ethnicity Based on census data

49. Ethnic differences in demographic transition For Russian women demographic transition started early Generations of Kyrgyz and Uzbek women born in the 1930s and 1940s have the highest fertility Fertility of Kyrgyz and Uzbek women started to decline among postwar and later generations

50. Age profiles of fertility for ethnic groups in Kyrgyzstan

51. Demographic transition in the 1990s In all ethnic groups decline of higher order births For Kyrgyz and Uzbek women fertility decline started in urban areas, then followed by fertility decline in rural areas Difficulties of social reforms accelerated demographic transition in all ethnic groups

52. Contraception use among women of different ethnicity RussianKyrgyzUzbek Contraception use71.0%55.8%62.7% Modern contraception methods58.1%47%49.5% oral pills5.6%1%1.5% condoms17.8%3.4%4.6% IUDs31.5%41%39% Source: DHS survey 1997