1. Development and validation of models to assess the threat to freshwater fishes from environmental change and invasive species PIs: Craig Paukert Joanna Whittier Julian Olden School of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences University of Washington

2. Funded by USGS, Status and Trends Prioritize watersheds for conservation Linked to Desert Fish Habitat Partnership Final report: June 2012 Background

3. Previously developed multimetric index one score for each watershed useful, but limitations Not all threats created equal: hydrological alteration habitat fragmentation water quality invasive species Should all these be combined into one index? Background

4. Example: threats scores developed at smaller scale (e.g., Verde River) different than entire basin Index values most sensitive to road crossing/road density One index……. Phoenix Las Vegas

5. Many indices do not test the relationship between biotic integrity and threats Previous work in Lower COR indicted limited response from biotic communities Why? one multimetric index may mask effects What about responses to biotic integrity?

6. What are the primary anthropogenic and biotic threats to freshwater in the Lower Colorado River Basin, and how do they vary across spatial scales? Which regional fish faunas are at greatest risk to anthropogenic and biotic threats? What is the association between species distributions and community composition and specific threat indices at different spatial scales? Objectives

7. Based on Lower COR Aquatic GAP (with updates) e.g., road density, land cover, land use, road crossings, diversions, 303d streams, etc. Additional metrics: number of invasive species, distance to nearest invasive species, etc. Methods-Threats

8. Tier 1: identify and summarize threats Several spatial scales (ecological drainage unit, catchment, segment) Tier 2: quantify threat index Presence/absence, weighting by biotic influence, etc. Calculate for different threat types (hydrological alteration, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, etc.) Tiered Approach

9. Tier 3: test biological relevance Use existing fish data collected through Aquatic GAP (1.5 million fish records) Are fish communities and traits more responsive to threats at certain scales or threat types? Tiered Approach

10. DFHP more interested in state- and non-listed species enough research on federally listed species Focus on species identified by DFHP Linking of Desert Fish Habitat Partnership Examples: How does the presence of flannelmouth sucker respond to threats? How does the fish community and functional traits respond to threats?

11. Lower COR basin as pilot study because of the existing data and diversity of threats Can we use these methods for other regions of the DFHP and other FHP? Linking of Desert Fish Habitat Partnership

12. Models that can be used for conservation planning Graphical user interface GIS-based Allows user to view different threat scores based on different methods and scales Products

13. Many threats identified and summarized Fish data updated Selection of post doctoral researcher Dr. Angela Strecker-began Oct. 2009 Progress to Date