Presentation on theme: "Managing the Nations Fish Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales in a Rapidly Changing Climate Introduction and Overview."— Presentation transcript:
Managing the Nations Fish Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales in a Rapidly Changing Climate Introduction and Overview
Develop a multi-scale assessment of the current and future status of fish habitat (and predicted biological responses) under scenarios of projected climate and land-use changes at national, regional, and local scales. Goal Strongly linked to NFHI and Fish Habitat Partnerships.
Where are the aquatic habitats in need of conservation as climate changes and causes unanticipated changes in the environment? What are the nationwide aquatic habitat alterations from projected climate and land-use changes? What are the commonalities and differences in the effects of climate and land-use changes across regions and scales? Background
Timeline and Status Proposal not approved yet Minor revisions addressed and waiting for approval Funding yet to be distributed for universities Draft Final report by September 2012 Final approved report by March 2013 -already pressure to move this up!
Step 1: Assessing the nations fish habitat (Infante et al.) Step 2: Develop scenarios of ecosystem change nationwide and regions (Beard, post doc-Reston) Step 3: Forecasting climate and land use change Downscaling the AOGCM (Hostetler et al) Economic land change models (post doc-Reston) Implementing scenarios (post doc-Reston) Teams and Objectives
National assessment: (Infante et al) Regional: Glacial Lakes (Wang et al.) Lower Colorado River Basin (Whittier, Olden, Paukert) Rocky Mountain streams (Kershner et al.) Appalachian streams (PA; Wagner and Ferreri) Regional assessment will include more detailed info than national assessment (e.g., finer resolution stream temp, land use, etc.) Step 4: Forecasting changes in Fish Habitat Implications for fishes
PA: How altered temp and DO affect brook trout distribution (Wagner and Ferreri) Glacial Lakes: How will cisco distribution change based on change in DO, temp, and nutrients (Johnson, Jacobson, et al.) Lower COR basin and nationwide: How does growth of fishes differ with altered water temperature in selected streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs (Paukert, Whittier, Olden, et al.) Step 4: Meeting Local Management Needs
Downscaling: Hostetler (student, post doc-OSU) National assessment: Infante (GIS, post doc-MSU) Scenario development: Beard (post doc) Regions PA: Wagner (PhD-PSU) Rocky Mountains: Kershner Lower COR: Whittier (GIS-KSU) Glacial Lakes: Wang (GIS, post doc MSU) Local Management Cisco: Johnson (post doc-UMD) Brook trout: Wagner (PhD-see above) Population level effects: Paukert (post doc-KSU) Team Leaders and New Staff
Misc Questions Project coordinator (post doc-Reston): oversee compilation of reports press releases organization of meetings not responsible for science-that is PIs job Meeting Schedule annually at AFS (Pittsburg, 9/12-16, 2010; Seattle 9/4-8, 2011) regular conference calls? required USGS meeting on downscaling? sometime after the new year
New Staff Jan-10Jun-10Jan-11Jun-11Jan-12Jun-12Jan-13 Post docs Downscaling post doc (2.5 yr; OSU)XXXXX Scenario Development (2 yr; USGS)XXXX National Assessment ( 3 yr; MSU)XXXXXX Glacial Lakes (2 yr; MI DNR/MSU)XXXX Cisco (3 yr; UMD)XXXXXX Population (2.5 yr; KSU)XXXX GIS staff National Assessment (2.5 yr; MSU)XXXXX Glacial Lakes/cisco (0.5 yr; UMD, MSU)X Lower COR (2.5 yr; KSU)XXXXX Students Dowscaling (3 yr; OSU)XXXXXX PA (3 yr; PSU)XXXXXX
Interim Products June 2010: webpage developed (Whittier, USGS Post doc) Jan. 2011: Annual report Scenarios of ecosystem change used to parameterize models used to forecast climate and land-use change (USGS-scenario PD). GIS layers of current status of fish habitat nationwide scale (used as the baseline for changes resulting from climate change; Infante, MSU) Jan. 2012: Annual report Project climate change and land-use at national, regional, and local scales; model changes to fish habitat and populations using climate change scenarios. Annual report that includes maps and GIS layers of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation from the downscaled models for each region of the study. Sep. 2012: Draft Final Report Completion of effects of climate change on fish habitat and multiple scales; draft final report submitted to USGS and partners.