1. NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects
1-2 March 2005
NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects
Dr Paul Cornish
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish
Paul Cornish

2. Old NATO 1949 -1989 Cold War Politico-Military Alliance Threat
1-2 March 2005
Old NATO
Cold War
Politico-Military Alliance
Threat
Article 5
Territorial Defence
US Role
US-European Strategic Relationship
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish
Paul Cornish

3. Confused NATO 1989 -1999 Threat? Purpose? Scope?
Politico-Military Alliance
New Strategic Concept
Enlargement and Open Door
US Leadership
NATO/EU Relations
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish

4. New NATO? 1999 - Present Security Provider Multiple Threats
NATO Capabilities
Military Transformation
Budget Driven
NATO/EU Relationship: ‘Berlin Plus’
Enlargement and Outreach
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish

5. NATO Enlargement and Outreach
1-2 March 2005
NATO (26)
Canada
United States
OSCE (55)
Albania
Andorra
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bosnia &
Herzegovina
Croatia
FRY [Serbia-Mont.]
FYROM
Georgia
Liechtenstein
Moldova
Russia
San Marino
Switzerland
Ukraine
Bulgaria
Iceland
Norway
Romania
Turkey
COUNCIL OF EUROPE (45)
Czech Rep.
Denmark Estonia Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Slovak Rep.
Slovenia
EU (25)
Belgium
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain UK
WEU (10)
Belarus
Holy See
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz Rep.
Monaco
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council is 26 NATO members, plus those marked in BLACK UNDERLINE. All these countries are also signatories of NATO’s Partnership for Peace programme.
Every other country in the world is known as a NATO Contact Country (!).
Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta, Sweden
NATO Mediterranean Dialogue (7) Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish
Paul Cornish

6. NATO Threats, Drivers and Shocks
1-2 March 2005
NATO Threats, Drivers and Shocks
Threats: Terrorism, WMD, ‘Rogue States’ etc.
Drivers of the Global Strategic Environment
Globalisation
Asymmetric Warfare
Demographic and Environmental Changes
Failing States
Radical Ideologies
Unresolved Conflicts
Shocks to NATO: 15 Years
Global Response
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish
Paul Cornish

7. NATO Initiatives and Concepts
1-2 March 2005
NATO Initiatives and Concepts
Initiatives:
Allied Command Transformation
NATO Response Force
Military Concept for Defence Against Terrorism
Civil Emergency Planning Action Plan
Deployable NBC Analytical Laboratory
NBC Event Response Team
NBW Weapons Defence Centre
NATO BW/CW Defence Stockpile
Disease Surveillance System
No comment – just list.
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish
Paul Cornish

8. NATO Initiatives and Concepts
Holistic Security:
Political/Military/Civil/Economic
Multidimensional Security:
Conflict Prevention
Crisis & Consequence Management
Peacekeeping
Support to Peacemaking
Disaster Response
Humanitarian Assistance
Post-combat and Post-conflict Capability
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish

9. NATO The Transformation Agenda
Intelligence
Accountability
Public Support
Agility
Interoperability
Adaptable Force Structures
Integrated Logistics
Suitable for Networked Environment
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish

10. NATO Command and Control
Leaner Structure:
Operations Command
Transformation Command
Interoperability:
Liaison – Deconfliction – Integration
New Technologies and Concepts
Effects-based Approach
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish

11. NATO The Effects-Based Approach
An effects-based approach involves the comprehensive integrated application of all instruments of Alliance power, both military and non-military, to create campaign effects which will achieve desired outcomes. This approach can be adopted at all levels of command and across the spectrum of conflict.
NATO’s Strategic Commanders
Strategic Vision: The Military Challenge
2004 (Draft)
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish

12. NATO Capability Programmes, Goals and Requirements
Programmes: DCI – PCC
Goals:
Decision Superiority
Coherent Effects
Joint Deployment and Sustainment
Requirements:
Improved Intelligence and Information-Sharing
Network-Enabled Capability
Robust and Flexible CIS Foundation
More Deployable and Adaptable Forces
Improved Co-ordination and Co-operation
Improved Post-Conflict Operations
Interoperable Logistics Systems
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish

13. NATO Problems and Prospects
Threat
Article 5/Territorial Defence
Transformation
US Leadership
NATO/EU Relations
Franco/US Relations
Russia
New Strategic Concept?
NATO = 26 Nations
Outreach
National Caveats
Ends and Means
European Defence Spending
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish

14. 1-2 March 2005
NATO Europe and US Defence Expenditure, and Defence Expenditure as % GDP (US $m constant 2000)
Source: IISS Military Balance.
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish
Paul Cornish

15. Three Options NATO Revived NATO-EU Transfer New Transatlantic Treaty
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish

16. NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects
1-2 March 2005
NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects
Dr Paul Cornish
Sofia 1-2 March 2005
Paul Cornish
Paul Cornish