1. Impacts of Tevatron Extension Pier Oddone P5 Meeting, October 15 th, 2010 1 P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010

2. Outline The present plan: implementation status Ramp-up of new projects and Tevatron transition At what level of new resources does the Tevatron extension make sense? With new resources, what are the remaining impacts, real and potential? Conclusions P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 2

3. Present plan: energy frontier P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 3 Tevatron LHC ILC, CLIC or Muon Collider Now 2016 LHC Upgrades ILC?? 2013 2019 2022

4. Present plan: intensity frontier P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 4 MINOS MiniBooNE MINERvA SeaQuest NOvA MicroBooNE g-2? SeaQuest Now 2016 LBNE Mu2e Project X+LBNE , K, nuclear, … Factory ?? 2013 2019 2022

5. Present plan: cosmic frontier P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 5 Now 2016 2013 2019 DM: ~10 kg DE: SDSS P. Auger DM: ~100 kg DE: DES P. Auger Holometer? DM: ~1 ton DE: LSST WFIRST?? BigBOSS?? DE: LSST WFIRST?? 2022

6. The connections of energy and intensity frontiers at Fermilab The following slide contains an animation of a possible evolution of the Fermilab complex  ILC R&D and Project X are aligned  position to do both; SCRF could also be used in neutrino factory and/or muon collider; high field magnets needed for both LHC and muon colliders  Project X design criteria contains requirement to be useful as a front end for neutrino factory and/or muon collider (with upgrades) P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 6 To advance animation in slide show mode, click on forward arrow on right lower corner; can also click on muon, kaon, or nuclear “boxes” to see possible experiments. To end animation click outside the slide

7. P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 7

8. Present US plan: characteristics Importance of LHC  support for research and upgrades; R&D on future energy frontier colliders: ILC and muon collider Transition to intensity frontier facilities. DOE-NSF and international partnerships; ultimately Project X Dark matter and dark energy next generation experiments A great short term opportunity for the Tevatron to get clearly into symmetry breaking territory. However, we should not endanger the future. What do we need in order to mitigate the impacts? P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 8

9. Ramp-up of new programs at Fermilab On present plan, major projects at the intensity frontier dominate the funding needs: LBNE and Mu2e; additional modest requirements for MicroBooNE and g-2; Project X continues R&D at relatively slow, steady pace Present plans for ramp-up of new intensity frontier projects count on the ramp-down of NOvA construction and cessation of Tevatron operations in early years (FY12-FY14) Scale-up for LHC upgrades, DM and DE experiments have profiles in DOE plans. Fermilab roles will depend on further national decisions. P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 9

10. Managing the Tevatron transition P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 10 Operational funding for the Tevatron includes recycler and core cryogenics operations. These core services change sponsor but need to be maintained at the laboratory (cannot be moved to projects). This amounts to about $8M/year, included in the graph for FY11 but not beyond.

11. Managing the Tevatron transition P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 11 Scientific staff is accounted for in “Proton Research B&R”, not in Tevatron operations. Above is planned transition of permanent scientific staff at Fermilab (40 FTEs). Move of staff from Tevatron  LHC replaces move from LHC to intensity frontier. Overall LHC and cosmic frontier staff remain constant. FTE scientists

12. Ramp-up of new programs at Fermilab P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 12

13. Overall picture of transition P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 13 In the early years (FY 12-14), the ramp up of new projects is funded from the ramp-down of Tevatron and NOvA. The overalll funding grows more or less like inflation through 2014 and exceeds inflation with LBNE and Project X growth only in FY15 and FY16.

14. Tevatron extension: no new resources Without additional resources there is major impact in the ramp-up of new projects: only half the rate Major impact on partnering agencies that would question the reliability of US plans Could easily lose support for the new projects: we have the support of the agencies now – no guarantees in the future if we do not establish them solidly  we should not extend the run unless we can assure ourselves that new programs can be kept very close to their present schedule and budget profiles P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 14

15. What level of resources needed? Make up the funding drop in the Tevatron planned for FY12: $35M. This allows the Tevatron to continue operating Provide an additional $10M for 50 new positions (nationally) at the intensity frontier to compensate for lack of migration from the Tevatron (or backfill Tevatron if there is some migration) Reduce the total amount required by:  NOvA delay (move $10M from FY12 to FY15)  Reduce Mu2e profile by $10M in FY13 and $5M in FY14 P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 15

16. What level of resources needed? Then, relative to the present plans, the incremental need in the next three years: P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 16 FY12FY13FY14FY15 Total needs +$45M +$40M NOvA-$10M$+10M Mu2e$-10M-$5M$+15M Net$35M $+25M

17. What level of resources needed? P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 17

18. What level of resources needed? P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 18

19. Even with additional resources… There are several impacts that are not mitigated NOvA:  Would run for 3 years at 400 kW instead of 700 kW. The shutdown to achieve 700 kW would occur in FY2015, when the detector is complete, instead of FY2012 when a small fraction of detector is complete  Delay in reaching full equivalent sensitivity is 2 years. After early running, in 2015, would have only half the integrated protons on target  NOvA is on budget and on schedule P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 19

20. NOvA Status P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 20 October 5 Near detector Far detector hall

21. Even with additional resources…. P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 21 NOvA impact. Most critical in years 2015-2017. Shown are cumulative product of Far Detector mass times pot as a function of time. The proposed NOνA run is for 560 kT-10 20 pot, shown by the dashed horizontal line. No RR assumes continued running at 400 kW

22. Even with additional resources…. P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 22 The ratio of the product of cumulative detector mass times pot for the impacted scenario divided by the baseline scenario as a function of calendar year. The largest impact occurs in 2015 - 2017.

23. Even with additional resources…. Mu2e:  would continue as previously planned through FY2012; in FY13 would see its profile reduced by $10M, leaving $50M. In FY14 it would have a profile lower by $5M. The $15M “borrowed” in FY13 and FY14 would be made up in FY15  The net effect of these cuts is to slow down the completion of the detector by about 6 months P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 23

24. Even with additional resources…. Retention of operations personnel at the Tevatron creates shortage of trained personnel  Engineers, technicians, operators are covered by the operations budget for accelerators. In the present plan, there would be a reduction in personnel  With the Tevatron extension, would need to add personnel to projects where staff had been expected to move from the Tevatron. This is an issue of acquiring competent staff, not a budgetary issue because projects have the funding for the staff they need. P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 24

25. Even with additional resources…. Retention of physicists at the Tevatron slows migration to the intensity frontier  Research physicists are accounted for in the “Proton Research” B&R category, separate from Tevatron operations. There was to be a strong migration from Tevatron to the Intensity Frontier within this category  To attenuate this problem, $10 M of the additional fund would create some 50 new positions at the intensity frontier (and replacements for the Tevatron if folks move to intensity frontier) P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 25

26. What other risks Risk that along the various gates we must pass through: OHEP, OSC, OMB, OSTP and Congress, the extension of the Tevatron is supported politically and paid for at the expense of the new programs at Fermilab and elsewhere We can measure this effect in relation to the present plans, but not in relation to real life when these plans change. For example:  Congress cuts $20M out of the program – it comes out of the non-Tevatron part  Would we have this cut if we had closed the Tevatron down the year before? This is impossible to determine. Standard answer: you would have been cut anyway. P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 26

27. What other risks The only way to mitigate this risk is to be perfectly clear to everyone (OHEP,OSC,OMB,OSTP and Congress): we do not want the extension of the Tevatron run at the cost of further damage to the overall HEP program beyond that which I have described The reason for not taking extension out of the hide of the HEP program is that the program has been weaken during the last decade when we have not built the facilities to keep us at the forefront in some domain of particle physics. This has changed now with the P5 plan. We must maintain the momentum. P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 27

28. Conclusions We have a great physics opportunity: we can reach the sensitivity to make critical contributions to electroweak symmetry breaking – one for the history books. The gain is from additional statistics and the continued strength of the collaboration needed to make improvements.  All indirect measurements point to a light Higgs. The light Higgs couples mostly to b-bbar and the rate is robust in all models that are not highly contrived. If the Higgs is light we must measure the rate to b-bbar.  For the Higgs to b-bbar the Tevatron is competitive at least through 2014 and in general will have higher signal to background than LHC P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 28

29. Conclusions There is an impact on NOvA that cannot be mitigated with funding. It is most severe in the time frame of 2015-2017 when the experiment would have about half the accumulated luminosity than presently planned A level of $35M/year additional resources into HEP in the next three years would allow us to mitigate all other impacts on new programs sufficiently to make the Tevatron extension a clear choice On balance, weighing the pros and cons, we should try to extend the Tevatron run and get solidly into electroweak symmetry braking territory P. Oddone, P5 Meeting, October 15, 2010 29