1. APES 9/14-9/15 No Warm-Up! Log in to a netbook
Please put your age structure diagram for your chosen country by the matching table tent.
#2 on worksheet- change Japan to France
Rotate through stations looking at the diagrams and then answer the remaining discussion questions.

2. Due Dates, etc. FYI- Unit Test will be on 22nd (blue) and 23rd (gold)
Ch. 7 Reading Assignment due 21st (gold) and 22nd (blue)
Blue days- have at least read the chapter and done the multiple choice for Friday the 18th

3. Learning Target
I can describe the 4 stages of Demographic Transition and explain why they correlate to a certain age structure diagram.

4. 7.2 Billion: How did we get here?
Cool animation of growth world wide /visualizing-how-a-population- grows-to-7-billion

5. Human Population Growth Historically
Early Hunter Gatherers
Nomadic, with a strong sense of the earth
Practiced intentional birth control
Rise of Agriculture
Necessary for Survival
Animals became extinct via predation and altered habitat
Humans began to cultivate own food

6. Human Population Growth Historically
C. Agriculture Gives Rise to Cities
Food produced in country, consumed in city
Food wastes are no longer returned to soil
Soil becomes less productive
Waste of populations concentrated in cities
Population control in medieval societies
Infanticide
Plagues

7. Human Population Growth Historically
D. Industrialization
Children valued as cheap source of income and cheap labor
Exponential growth of populations
By 1900s, Birth Rate in Industrialized World Dropped
Rise in standards of living
Safe and inexpensive means of birth control introduced
Increase in the cost of child rearing

8. Increasing our Carrying Capacity
Technology has allowed us to raise Earth’s carrying capacity for our species time and again.
Tool-making, agriculture, and industrialization each enabled humans to sustain greater populations.

10. Population Projections
Over 95% of this increase
will take place in “Developing
Countries”

13. Patterns in developed vs. developing countries

14. Demographic Transition
Movement of a nation from high to low pop. growth as it develops economically:
Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high
Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high; growth rate rises
Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises; growth rate falls
Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to a negative rate

15. Demographic Transition: Stages

16. Pop. Pyramids at Diff. Stages

17. Stage 1
High birth rates, high (at times erratic) death rates, low growth rates
Stage for much of human history
No current countries

18. Stage 2 High birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates
Improvements in sanitation
(water) and medicine
In U.S., Europe during
Industrial Revolution
In developing countries since the 50s/60s
Much of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)

20. Demographic Trap Population Path of Most Less-Developed Countries
“Trapped” in Stage 2
Before 1970, these countries were poised to make transition thanks to economic growth
Since 1970, econ. growth has not kept pace with population
High birth and low death rates result in explosive population growth
Downward spiral in standard of living

21. Demographic Fatigue
Lack of $$$ and ability to deal with natural disasters and disease
Possibility that countries suffering from demographic fatigues could slip back into Stage 1 of demographic transition

22. Stage 3 Continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates,
growth rates decline from
high to lower levels
Change in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate, in particular infant mortality rate
Economic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children)

24. Stage 4 & 5 Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low
growth rates
United States today
Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)
several countries of Europe today (Austria)

27. Effects of Population Decline
As percentage of 60+ aged people increases, population begins decline
60+population increase --> severe economic and social problems because 60+ consume
more medical care
Social Security
costly public services
Labor shortages require automation & immigration

28. Demographic Transition Activity
Due next time!
Graph + pieces arranged in proper order and glued/taped down.

29. Exit Task 9/14 & 9/15 On the provided half-sheet:
Name: __________________
1. What demographic
Transition phase is
Canada in?
2. Why does this phase
result in this particular
graph shape? (give at
least two reasons).

30. Where is the world in the Demographic Transition?
Stage 2! – There are many countries “stuck”
Why does the world need to move forward?
Factors that will influence this process…
Empowerment of women
Family planning programs
Poverty
HIV/AIDS
Key is to get women to stop having so many babies – and to feel like they don’t need to have as many children

31. Human Population Dynamics
There are just three sources of change in population size —
Fertility
Mortality
"natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births
Migration
Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

32. TFR and RFR Total fertility rate (TFR)
The average number of children born to a woman
Average in developed countries = 1.5
Average in developing countries = 3.8
Worldwide 1990: 3.1 Now: 2.5
Replacement fertility rate (RFR)
The # of children a couple must have to replace themselves
A TFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates
Africa RFR = 2.5

33. Falling growth rates doesn’t mean fewer people!
Falling rates of growth do not mean a decreasing population, but only that rates of increase are slowing

34. Female Education and TFR
Female literacy, school enrollment, and access to family planning are correlated with total fertility rate.
In 2007, 54% of married women worldwide used contraception;
China = 86%; the U.S. = 68%; 20 African nations < 10%

35. What Is Family Planning?
Blue = family planning accessible
Red = family planning not accessible
What Is Family Planning?
Measures enabling parents to control number of children.
Goals of Family Planning- healthy children that parents can care for; parents can have # children they desire.

36. The Int’l Conference on Pop. and Development
In 1994 Cairo, Egypt, 179 nations called on all governments to offer universal access to reproductive health care within 20 years
Offer better education and health care and alleviate poverty, disease, and sexism
Controversy in the U.S.
Currently, GOP House of Reps. is working on legislation to limit Planned Parenthood
Employers affiliated with religious orgs. have asked for exceptions to Affordable Care Act’s coverage of contraception (“Obamacare”)

37. Influencing Population Size
Most countries restrict immigration
Canada, Australia, U.S. - most immigration
Involuntary immigration results from
armed conflict
environmental degradation
natural disaster --> environmental refugees
Migration from rural to urban areas

38. Nation With Best Known Population Control Program
China’s Program
Nation With Best Known Population Control Program
Reasons Chinese Government Initiated Population Control Measures
Freshwater and food at a premium for nation’s population
Country experiencing population momentum
Government Perks / Coercive Measures for Citizen Compliance
Free education and health care
Increased personal and family incomes
Increased legal marrying age for women
Contraceptives, abortions, and sterilizations free of charge
Preferential housing and retirement income

40. Rewards and Penalties to reduce births
What might work:
encourage, rather than coerce, people to have fewer children
reinforce existing customs and trends toward smaller families
don’t penalize for already existing larger family
increase poor family’s economic status

41. Case Studies - India
Family planning efforts began in 1952; fertility rate declined from 5.3 to but population grow is still exponential -1.9%
Disappointing results due to:
poor planning
bureaucratic inefficiency
low status of women
extreme poverty
lack of administrative & financial support

42. Case Studies - China
Family planning efforts began in 1970; TFR fell from 5.7 to 1.8; infant mortality and illiteracy rates 1/3 to 1/2 of India’s rates
Population control program is extensive, intrusive and strict:
postpone childbearing
only one child/family -->benefits
effect b/c China is dictatorship; limited resources would have mean disaster

43. Cutting Global Population Growth
U. N.Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994
8 goals to be met by 2015 (p. 276)
are these goals wishful thinking?
Replacement level fertility can be met in years as shown by Japan, Thailand…
Invest in family planning, reduce poverty, and elevate status of women

44. Population and the environment
Population growth can lead to environmental degradation.
Overpopulation in Africa’s Sahel region has led to overgrazing of semi-arid lands. (China obviously also an ex.)

45. Affluence and the environment
Poverty can lead to environmental degradation…
BUT
wealth and resource consumption can produce even more severe and far- reaching environmental impacts.

46. The wealth gap
Residents of developed nations have larger houses, more possessions, and more money than residents of developing nations.
The richest 20% of the world’s people consumes 86% of its resources, and has > 80 times the income of the poorest 20%.

47. Food and Hunger 840 million people are hungry
799 million of those are in developing countries
The other 40 million are in developed countries
½ of the US population relies on food stamps

48. Food and Hunger 1.2 billion are overweight
30% of the U.S. population is obese
Why does this dichotomy exist?
POVERTY

49. Poverty in Developing Nations
Trade imbalances exist between developed nations and developing nations.
U.S. has outsourced production to these poverty-stricken nations.
Many will work under terrible conditions and long hours because it is a better alternative to continued poverty.

50. Ecological Footprints
Environmental Impact Equation (Paul Ehrlich Formula)
I = P x A x T
I= Total Impact
P= Population size
A= Affluence
T= Level of technology

51. Population growth affects the environment
The IPAT model: I = P x A x T x S
Our total impact (I) on the environment results from the interaction of population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T), with an added sensitivity (S) factor
Population = individuals need space and resources
Affluence = greater per capita resource use
Technology = increased exploitation of resources
Sensitivity = how sensitive an area is to human pressure
Further model refinements include education, laws, ethics
Humanity uses 1/3 of all the Earth’s net primary production