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1 April, 2012 Sergey Vasiliev Deputy Chairman x BRICS’ Role in Global Development up to 2020.

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Presentation on theme: "1 April, 2012 Sergey Vasiliev Deputy Chairman x BRICS’ Role in Global Development up to 2020."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 April, 2012 Sergey Vasiliev Deputy Chairman x BRICS’ Role in Global Development up to 2020

2 2 BRICS ROLE IN WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2000-2010: BRIC – demonstrated high growth rates, became drivers of the world economy Source: Goldman Sachs 2010-2020: BRIC keep their role in world economy, but with lower growth rates 2020-2050: Emerging markets will produce 60- 70% of world GDP World GDP, %

3 3 EMERGING MARKETS: MULTIPLE CENTERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Emerging markets will become new drivers of the world economy growth, demonstrate the highest growth rate N-11:Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, Vietnam Annual GDP Growth Rate, % Faster growth in emerging economies outside BRIC

4 4 2000-20102011-20202020-2050 Factor productivity FACTORS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Population growth Capital accumulation Small contribution to growth after 2020 Constant driver of growth Increasing input to economic growth

5 5 Over the last 20 years share of BRICS countries increased sharply This growth mainly determined by increasing exports to developed countries Share of BRICS in world trade (%) BRICS GROWING CONTRIBUTION TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE

6 6 In recent years mutual trade between BRICS countries enlarged fivefold, but still remains quite low World Trade Flows in 2011 (All Exports = 100%) MUTUAL TRADE AMONG BRICS COUNTRIES

7 7 CASE FOR NATIONAL SETTLEMENT CURRENCIES IN FOREIGN TRADE - More transparent pricing in bilateral trade - Reduce dependence on other currencies fluctuations - Lower trade transaction costs (estimated up to 4% volume) Benefits What do BRICS development institutions do to extend international use of national currencies: Agreement on Financial Cooperation within the BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism Master Agreement on Extending Facilities in Local Currency under BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism. Opening new credit lines and implementing joint investment projects on bilateral and multilateral basis

8 8 CO-FINANCING INVESTMENT IN BRICS ECONOMIES: RDIF EXAMPLE Bilateral investment among BRICS countries remains very low: 1.8 % of total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows 1.2 % of total FDI outflows Similar may be true for bilateral investment between other emerging countries Russian Direct Investment Fund $10 billion fund established in 2011 by Russian government Targets equity investments in the Russian economy Mandated to co-invest with large investors globally Management Company of the Fund is a 100% subsidiary of Vnesheconombank and will operate according to international best practices of investment governance. Facility to promote investment:

9 9 LONG TERM INVESTMENT CHALLENGE Solutions to various structural problems (such technology transfer, innovation catch-up and infrastructure demands) in emerging economies require long-term investment. Perceived economy growth risks and government budget deficits preserve «short-termism» in financing – a key challenge faced by long-term investors. Needed steps: Bring private financing to projects Implement frameworks to manage environmental and social risks Seek favorable financial regulation for long-term investment Best practices exchange and joint pilot projects will help advance in these steps. Major development finance institutions joined to Long Term Investors Club to address these challenges. Investment needs Constraints: «short-termism» Areas for action… … and cooperation

10 10 VNESHECONOMBANK GROUP Russian bank for Small and Medium Enterprise Support (Russia) 3.6% of Total Assets Roseximbank (Russia) 0.4% of Total Assets VEB Capital (Russia) 0.3% of Total Assets VEB Leasing (Russia) 5.6% of Total Assets Sviaz-Bank (Russia) 6.8% of Total Assets Prominvestbank (Ukraine) 5.0% of Total Assets Globexbank (Russia) 7.3% of Total Assets Belvnesheconombank (Belarus) 1.6% of Total Assets VEB CAPITAL Core Russian subsidiaries Banks bailed out by the Government during crisisRepresentation in CIS countries 1. Assets split provided based on 1H 2011 management accounts

11 11 VNESHECONOMBANK STRATEGY 2015: KEY TARGETS 1.1.20111.1.2016 INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO, bn RUB 349850 SHARE OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO, % 1520 SME SUPPORT (THROUGH SUBSIDIARIES), bn RUB 121150 EXPORT CREDIT FINANCE, INSURANCE GUARANTEES, bn RUB 25,690

12 12 Thank you ! 9 Ak. Sakharov ave. Moscow, Russia tel.: +7 (495) 721-18-63 fax: +7 (499) 975-21-43 www.veb.ru


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