1. Linking London: 20 th May Nick Davy, AoC National HE Policy Manager

2. The Labour Market Context: Opportunity? Managers, directors and senior officials +586k Professional occupations +1175k Associate professional and technical +583k Administrative and secretarial - 486k Skilled trades occupations -306k Caring, leisure and other service + 649k Sales and customer service -64k Process, plant and machine operatives -214k Elementary occupations -67k

3. Data – College HE problematic: UEL and HESA Total HESA FT and PT figures for 20011/12:119,040 2012/13:123,610 2103/14:124,890 HESA Increase 11/12 to 13/14: 4.6% HESA PT Decrease: 12/13 to 13/14: 9% UEL Decrease 08/09 to 12/13: 8.4% UEL PT Decrease 08/09 to 12/13: 32%

4. History of HE in Colleges Development of advanced FE in 1950s/1970s Several occupational areas – work-based routes with off-the-job training Professional certificates/diplomas; BEC/TEC; HNC/D Full-Time and Sandwich Higher Education1971/72: circa 90K students/90 FE Institutions (200k students in universities);180K on AFE Expansion in academic HE from late 80s – mid 90s; HEI expand; FEC HE flat-lined NPHE in slow decline from early 2000s Foundation degrees from 2001- 100K target met but HN replacement; honours progression; employer input?

5. Recent Trends in College Higher Education Full time Part time Non-prescribed Shape Impact of lifting the Numbers Cap - see Australia http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/features/the-australian-test- uncapped-student-numbers/2010630.fullarticle Where is college HE?

6. Significant increase in enrolments More enrolled from middle-ranking eligibility grades Some improvement in enrolments from lower socio-economic groups Lower/Middle–ranking HEIs grew fastest – often on teaching/nursing courses; Group of 8 less interested Perceptions of ‘dilution of standards’ – not proven Students less prepared for HE study? – evidence of improvements in HEI transition and support services. TAFE colleges – protection; some expansion from a low base Lifting the cap: What happened in Australia? [introduced in 2012/known from 2009]

7. HEI Recruitment – AAA/AAB Some RG – Exeter, Brum, Bristol – expanded Those who have expanded continuing to expand; those contracted continuing to contract – across all tariff groups Evidence of lowering grade offers Improved transition/academic support offer? UCAS Acceptances; 54% of providers decreased in size -11-14 UK20102011201220132014 Higher Tariff 99K94.896102.8105.7 Medium132.3132.4126.6134.2137 Low192202.7183.6196.5204.6

8. Higher Apprenticeships – an Eton mess? Confused funding streams Trailblazer standards – almost 50% at level 4 +; qualifications? Permeability - relationship to academic HE? Concept of degree apprenticeships? Widening participation? Colleges take 12/15% more WP students Threat to HEFCE Student Opportunity Grant? More than progress to RG HEIs: added value for communities? Key Issues for College HE

9.  Adult skills budget cuts/encouraging HE expansion/entry  Fees Loans for adult FE – impact on adult supply?  Privates expanding (70% in London/SE); loans: £30m (‘10) to £600M (‘13)  At present pressure on middle-tariff; but could change?  Lifting of cap – support for FT academic degrees  Overall most colleges experiencing limited expansion – or small decline - apart from those new to market or niche  Limited policy prescriptions for PTHE  NPHE – ‘bottomed out’? Where do we go from here?: Tough spot

10.  Have too many colleges become ‘big schools’ – L1/2 provision?  Have we lost our reputation for technical and professional education? (levels 3/4/5?)  Are there too many small colleges? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  How can England create a technical education strand in public colleges?  Greater autonomy  National Accreditation Council  Awarding Powers  Improved LMI/Stronger employer links  Decrease intermediaries such as LEPs; regulate providers/buyers Where do we go from here?: Macro

11.  Larger colleges – FDAP  Smaller provision – work with HEI on clear mission – access; employer engagement; internal progression  Best colleges – 60% on HE courses – internal progression  Add value to employers – not just training/education  Niche local provision/employer-led  Guarantees/compacts for students who achieve set targets  Transition programmes  Working with communities  Year Zero/Accelerated provision  Customised – international Where do we go from here?: Micro

12. Any Questions? Nick Davy AoC HE Policy Manager nick_davy@aoc.co.uk