1. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review Presentation to Downtown Planning Collaborative Fifth-Forbes Economic Review Presentation to Downtown Planning Collaborative October 16, 2000

2. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Key Findings Without action, likely continued decline The scenarios are market-supportable Both scenarios: require sales diverted from elsewhere can potentially enhance the visitor-based economy, but in very different ways

3. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Key Findings Public costs magnify the risk of the URP scenario The CDC scenario will require significant, unidentified resources to succeed

4. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Our Assignment Scrub the Assumptions Review Market Dynamics Estimate Fiscal Benefits Review Cost:Benefit Relationships Identify Areas for Further Review by the Community

5. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Characteristics: URP Plan Leverages existing public investment by reinforcing and expanding on the anchored- regional-center approach Fosters dramatic and rapid change Reinforces downtowns attractiveness to core office markets

6. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Characteristics : URP Plan Upscale market position will broaden downtowns trade area Street-oriented retail scheme should mean more reasonable occupancy costs, more adaptable leasing and merchandising

7. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Characteristics : URP Plan Parking will have long-term value Centralized leasing, ownership, management will mean higher sales productivity Public resources, risks are highly focussed Approach depends on a few key decisions and requires intervention in private property rights

8. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Characteristics: CDC Plan Approach is proven in smaller cities much less so in larger markets Approach responds well to current national downtown trends: diverse workplaces surge in housing concentrating culture and entertainment; leveraging historic resources; creating a strong, indigenous sense of place

9. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Characteristics: CDC Plan Much about implementation is unknown: strong development, finance, marketing, and organizational resources will be required Diverse web of decision-makers mitigates public cost and risk, but at the expense of short-term impacts and immediate action

10. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Characteristics: CDC Plan The approach has broad applicability downtown: benefits could extend well beyond project area

11. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 ERAs Evaluation Melds Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis Melds Marginal and Average Approaches Emphasizes Net New Activity

12. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 ERAs Evaluation Ignores Indirect Multiplier Effects– Treats Them as Proportional Addressed Future Market Parameters Informed by Scenario Projections Revenue Side Only

13. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Future Population & Employment REGIONAL POPULATION AND CITY EMPLOYMENT WILL CONTINUE TO GROW OVER NEXT DECADE

14. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Changes in Retail Sales: 1992- 97 RETAIL SALES TRENDS IN CITY OF PITTSBURGH ARE IN LINE WITH REGIONAL TRENDS

15. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Regional Earnings Growth OVERALL REGIONAL EARNINGS WILL GROW AT 2.0% ANNUALLY THROUGH 2010

16. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Growth in Retail Spending NEARLY $1 BILLION IN NEW RETAIL SPENDING IN REGION BETWEEN 1999-2010: 16% IN CITY OF PITTSBURGH

17. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Potential Retail Sales $6.8 BILLION IN POTENTIAL RETAIL SALES--MAJORITY FROM RESIDENT MARKETS

18. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Required Sales Capture Urban Retail Scenario requires capturing up to 5.6% of total retail demand--other scenarios are less than 2.0%

19. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Direct Economic Impacts: Operations Urban Retail Properties Scenario has Greatest Impact-- No Action Scenario Creates Potential Losses

20. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Net New Construction Impact Income Tax Revenue from Construction Employment is Most Significant Factor

21. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Net New Operations Impact Greatest Impact on School District Largely Due to Real Property Tax Revenue

22. Fifth-Forbes Economic Review: 10/16/2000 Key Decision Factors Fiscal and Economic Impacts Timing of Costs and Benefits Public Opportunity Costs Sustainability and Adaptability