1. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.1 STEM Strategic Telecoms Evaluation Model Takács György 9. Előadás

2. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.2 Mai elektronikus kommunikáció folyamata Forgalom igény Műszaki tervek Projekt döntés Megvaló- sulás és üzemelés Koncepció váltás Új igény Pénzbefektetés Nyereség Elektronikus kommunikációs szolgáltatás

3. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.3 Business planning A Business Plan presents the calculation of the financial indicators that enable the managers to evaluate the financial performances of an enterprise in order to take best decisions for the overall operation. Due to the high number of alternatives today and the need to find economical feasibility in competition, the business evaluations are being used not only for the business plan itself but as an iterative evaluation of those techno- economical alternatives to select the ones that perform better in the competitive market.

4. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.4 A Business Plan summarises the results of the planning process: - the objectives to reach ( subscribers demand, sales) - the future revenues expected from the plan and per service class; - the planned expenses (investment and operations) as overall and per service class; - the accounting statements and the financial indicators characterising the profitability of the project.

5. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.5 Business model structure for planning

6. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.6 STEM is a Strategic Telecoms Evaluation Model which brings clarity and understanding to the complex world of telecoms business planning. STEM enables you to build robust business and investment plans that embrace alternative market, technical and economic futures.

7. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.7 ADSL roll-out by a competitive operator For a competitive operator offering ADSL services to the residential and small business markets, what is the optimum number of local exchanges to serve, and what is the economic impact of offering an analogue voice service as well as broadband Internet access? This model considers an operator which provides broadband Internet access over ADSL lines and also – optionally – analogue voice services. The network, illustrated below, is based on the incumbent's unbundled local loop, co-locating equipment at the incumbent's local exchange buildings.

8. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.8

9. 9 Addressable market The Market, service & CPE view shows how the network offers an ADSL service to two market segments, business and residential. Under one set of scenarios, an additional POTS service is also offered to the same segments. It is assumed that if the POTS service is offered, all customers will take it bundled with their data service. The customer base for the data service to the business and residential market is defined by a calculation of the addressable market, which is dependent on the number of exchanges served. It is assumed that the operator will choose to roll out to the exchanges with the largest addressable market first, resulting in decreasing marginal returns for each new exchange.

10. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.10 Cost of equipment at the local exchange The Local exchange view illustrates the costs associated with putting the operator's equipment within the incumbent's exchange, as well the costs of the equipment itself. The main cost driver is the DSL access modem (DSLAM) which is parameterised by the number of shelves contained within it. These shelves can be occupied by either line cards (24 cards per shelf with 8 lines per card) or by low-pass filter cards (24 cards per shelf with 8 lines per card). The line cards are driven by the number of ADSL lines connected, whereas the low-pass filter cards are only required when the analogue voice service is used. Thus more DSLAMs are required when the analogue voice service is offered as their capacity is filled more quickly. In addition to the unit cost for each DSLAM, there is a co- location charge, the tie-cable charge and the line charge (which is doubled to a full unbundling charge if the analogue voice service is required).

11. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.11 Backhaul costs The backhaul is not the primary focus of this model and, as such, the Backhaul view is kept relatively simple. The voice traffic is transported via E1 lines with a capacity of 30 voice lines per E1, with a minimum requirement of one E1 line per exchange. The number of lines required is calculated via an Erlang-B calculation which is driven by the total number of voice minutes from each service and a probability of blocking of 2%. The cost of switching is then modeled as a single resource. The data traffic is transported via E3 lines (34Mbit/s), with the routing of that data modeled as a single resource. The capacity required above the minimum requirement of one line per exchange is driven by the busy-hour traffic of each service, which is then combined to give a single busy-hour traffic result. This combined busy-hour is needed to reflect the fact that the busy hour for the business service will not coincide with the residential busy hour. Thus a combined busy hour equal to the residential service plus 10% of the business service is used. The base model assumes that backhaul is rented at half of the nominal list price.

12. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.12 Other business costs The Other business costs view includes costs over and above the network hardware costs, namely network management, interconnection, customer acquisition, customer service and general administrative overhead. These are represented by different resource elements which are chosen to offer flexibility in how these costs are driven. For instance, network management is defined on a per-exchange basis, while interconnect costs and general administrative overhead are defined in terms of percentage of total annual revenue. Installation, customer service and customer acquisition are all defined on a per-connection basis.

13. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.13 Scenarios The model contains three sets of scenarios, governing (a) the number of exchanges at which equipment is co-located, (b) whether or not the analogue voice service is provided, and (c) the price paid for backhaul. These scenarios and their variants are detailed below. Number of exchanges served POTS provided? Backhaul rental cost Low (100)Yes1/2 nominal list price Medium (1000)No2/3 list price High (2000) list price

14. Távk. hál. terv -2013. okt. 8.14