Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

China-U.S. Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions History and Forecast Richard G. Newell Director, Duke University Energy Initiative and Gendell Professor.

Published byPierce Craig Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "China-U.S. Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions History and Forecast Richard G. Newell Director, Duke University Energy Initiative and Gendell Professor."— Presentation transcript:

1 China-U.S. Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions History and Forecast Richard G. Newell Director, Duke University Energy Initiative and Gendell Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University Duke-Kunshan Workshop on “China-U.S. Climate Change Action and Cooperation” September 10, 2015 | Kunshan, China

2 Global CO 2 emissions: different policy assumptions underlie different projections of world energy-related emissions Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 2 Data source: Historical data from IEA Statistics until 2012. Projections from IEA World Energy Outlook (2014), U.S. EIA International Energy Outlook (2013), ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy (2015) and Shell New Lens Scenarios (2013).

3 Divergent CO 2 emissions trajectories between U.S. and China Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 3 Data source: Historical data are from IEA Statistics until 2012. Projections from IEA World Energy Outlook (2014), U.S. EIA International Energy Outlook (2013), ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy (2015).

4 U.S. climate target in the INDC Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 4 U.S. is the second largest GHG emitter after China, accounting for 16% of global emissions U.S. pledges –Copenhagen: Reduce GHG emissions by 17% below 2005 level by 2020 –INDC: Reduce GHG emissions by 26-28% below 2005 level by 2025 –Consistent with a pathway to 80% or more reduction by 2050 Measures proposed in INDC to achieve this target –Established domestic laws and regulations (Clean Air Act, Energy Policy Act, Energy Independence and Security Act, Fuel Economy Standards for certain vehicle types, Clean Power Plan) –Proposed but unfinalized regulations (including post-2018 heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy standards, more stringent code for buildings and appliances) –No intention to use international market mechanism to implement 2025 target

5 U.S. historical energy-related CO 2 emissions and reduction targets Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 5 Copenhagen target 17% below 2005 in 2020 INDC target 26-28% below 2005 in 2025 Data source: Historical data are from EIA International Statistics. Focused on CO 2 only.

6 Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan Total reduction How can U.S. achieve its reduction target? Data source: Historical data from U.S. EIA International Statistics. Projection data from Reference Case of U.S. EIA’s AEO2007, 2010, 2012, 2015; CAFE Standards Case of AEO2012; and EIA’s Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (2015) 2020 target -17% ( 2007 EIA Reference Case Pre-recession, before EISA2007 was enacted 2010 EIA Reference Case Post-recession, includes EISA2007 and CAFE standards for MY2011-2016 2025 target -26% CAFE standards MY2012-2016 ~200 Mt

7 Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan How can U.S. achieve its reduction target? Data source: Historical data from U.S. EIA International Statistics. Projections from Reference Case of EIA’s AEO2007, 2010, 2012, 2015; CAFE Standards Case of AEO2012; and EIA’s Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (2015) ~100 Mt 2007 EIA Reference Case Pre-recession, before EISA2007 was enacted 2010 EIA Reference Case Post-recession, includes EISA2007 and CAFE standards for MY2011-2016 2012 EIA Reference Case EIA 2012 CAFE Case MY 2017-2025 EIA 2015 Reference Case EIA Clean Power Plan Base Case Scenario 2025 target Heavy duty vehicle standards 2014-2018 ~50 Mt 7

8 2050 cost-effective mitigation opportunities in the U.S. Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 8 Data source: AMPERE Project

9 2050 cost-effective mitigation opportunities in China Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 9 Data source: AMPERE Project

10 For more information Richard Newell, 09/10/2015, Kunshan 10 Richard Newell Duke University Energy Initiative energy.duke.edu richard.newell@duke.edu 919-681-8663

Download ppt "China-U.S. Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions History and Forecast Richard G. Newell Director, Duke University Energy Initiative and Gendell Professor."

Similar presentations

Carbon Emissions. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration Atmospheric increase = Emissions from fossil fuels + Net emissions from changes in land use.

Carbon Emissions. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration Atmospheric increase = Emissions from fossil fuels + Net emissions from changes in land use.
EPA’s Clean Power Plan Proposed Rules for Reducing GHG Emissions from Power Plants Presentation to ACPAC June 16, 2014 1.

EPA’s Clean Power Plan Proposed Rules for Reducing GHG Emissions from Power Plants Presentation to ACPAC June 16,
4 good reasons why Energy Efficiency is Important.

4 good reasons why Energy Efficiency is Important.
Reflections on Key Messages in Recent Reports

Reflections on Key Messages in Recent Reports
Towards a Low Carbon Future: China’s Green Development Policy and Practice Ye QI Climate and Carbon Policy Institute (CPI) Tsinghua University & China.

Towards a Low Carbon Future: China’s Green Development Policy and Practice Ye QI Climate and Carbon Policy Institute (CPI) Tsinghua University & China.
Creating Incentives to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Post 2012: Options from the Future Actions Dialogue Ned Helme, President Jake Schmidt, International.

Creating Incentives to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Post 2012: Options from the Future Actions Dialogue Ned Helme, President Jake Schmidt, International.
Predicting our Climate Future

Predicting our Climate Future
Emissions reductions in perspective: How UK and global targets for CO2 measure up in historical and thermodynamic contexts Erica Thompson Grantham Institute.

Emissions reductions in perspective: How UK and global targets for CO2 measure up in historical and thermodynamic contexts Erica Thompson Grantham Institute.
Coal and the Climate Challenge in China KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER Energy Technology Innovation Policy Harvard Kennedy School www.energytechnologypolicy.org.

Coal and the Climate Challenge in China KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER Energy Technology Innovation Policy Harvard Kennedy School
Climate Change Policy of Brazil. Introduction Brazil has: –6% of world’s surface –27% of world’s population –1.3% growth rate –5.5 million square kilometers.

Climate Change Policy of Brazil. Introduction Brazil has: –6% of world’s surface –27% of world’s population –1.3% growth rate –5.5 million square kilometers.
Copenhagen 29 June 2004 1 Energy and climate outlook: Renewables in a world and European perspective Peter Russ.

Copenhagen 29 June Energy and climate outlook: Renewables in a world and European perspective Peter Russ.
© OECD/IEA 2010 Energy and climate policy Richard Baron, head of Climate Change Unit, IEA IEA-FTS of Russia Workshop on Global Energy Market Scenarios.

© OECD/IEA 2010 Energy and climate policy Richard Baron, head of Climate Change Unit, IEA IEA-FTS of Russia Workshop on Global Energy Market Scenarios.
Update: August 2011 Global Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy/GHG Emissions Standards.

Update: August 2011 Global Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy/GHG Emissions Standards.
Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis IEA and EIA: Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis IEA and EIA: Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches.
Omar Abdel Samad Ali Alnaggar Victor Armstrong.  While Canada’s National Energy Strategy (NES) is much in line with the BC Clean Energy Act / IRP, Market.

Omar Abdel Samad Ali Alnaggar Victor Armstrong.  While Canada’s National Energy Strategy (NES) is much in line with the BC Clean Energy Act / IRP, Market.
1 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Rulemaking National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Informal Document No. WP.29-145-13 145th session, 24-27 June.

1 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Rulemaking National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Informal Document No. WP th session, June.
Setting a GHG Emission Reduction Target Asher Burns-Burg ICF International.

Setting a GHG Emission Reduction Target Asher Burns-Burg ICF International.
Rising Food and Energy Prices October 2 nd, 2008 Corvallis, Oregon A. Michael Schaal Director, Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

Rising Food and Energy Prices October 2 nd, 2008 Corvallis, Oregon A. Michael Schaal Director, Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
Financial Executives Institute Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Canadian Environmental Policy This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual.

Financial Executives Institute Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Canadian Environmental Policy This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual.
India’s INDC: Renewable Energy and the Pathway to Paris Sudatta Ray Junior Research Associate Council on Energy, Environment and Water Climate Day: Negotiating.

India’s INDC: Renewable Energy and the Pathway to Paris Sudatta Ray Junior Research Associate Council on Energy, Environment and Water Climate Day: Negotiating.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google