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Climate Change: Summary of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report November 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Change: Summary of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report November 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change: Summary of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report November 2007

2 About the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/ The IPCC was established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change. Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation.

3 About the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Its constituency is made of : –The governments: the IPCC is open to all member countries of WMO and UNEP. –The scientists: hundreds of scientists all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC as authors, contributors and reviewers.

4 About the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report +2,500 expert reviewers 800 contributing authors 450 lead authors from 130 countries. - Vision of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, November 12, 2007

5 Controversies in the Popular Theory of Global Warming Complexity! Model-based. Alternative causes for warming? Politicized science? Unwarranted Doom and Gloom? Anti-capitalism agenda? Global warming leading to global cooling?

6 Observations

7 Figure 1.3

8 Alpine Glacier Retreat Retreat of 7 miles and 800 meter thinning. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center 19412004

9 Sea Ice Loss Over Time Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center

10 Figure 4.10 Sea ice extent in the Nordic Sea

11 Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent (1979 versus 2003) Image courtesy of NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center

12 Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Thickness

13

14 Figure 4.5 Timing of Ice Formation and Breakup

15 Greenland Ice Sheet Meltdown

16 Observed and modeled ocean temp. changes Hansen et al., 2005. Science vol. 308

17 Trends in Various Parameters

18 What Impacts Climate?

19 What Impacts Radiation Balance?

20 Figure 2.1

21 Must Quantify Radiation Balance

22 Hansen et al., 2005. Science vol. 308 What Controls Global Warming?

23 Where Do You Go To Find Records of Climate Change? Antarctica Vostok ice core

24 Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Over Time and Correlation to 18 O

25 FAQ 2.1, Figure 1

26 Rates of Change in Greenhouse Gases

27

28 Figure 2.6 Atmospheric concentrations of CFS and associated anthropogenic compounds

29 Figure 2.18

30 What goes into the models?

31

32 FAQ 9.2, Figure 1 Confidence in models?

33 Figure 1.1 1990 1996 2001 Model Evolution

34 Hansen et al., 2005. Science vol. 308 What Controls Global Warming?

35 How do the models work

36 Models of Future Warming Will temperature increase be uniform across the globe? +10°F

37 Differential Temp Change The results are based on climate change simulations made with the Coupled Global Climate Model developed by Environment Canada. From Atlas of Canada http://atlas.gc.ca/site/english/maps/climatechange/scenarios/globalannualtemp2100 20502100 Annual Temperature Change from 1975-95 to 2040-60 (°C) -3 - -2 0 - 1 3 - 4 6 - 7 8 - 9 12 - 15

38 Variability in Temp and Rainfall with Latitude and Model

39 Comparison of Warming Models

40 Comparison of Warming and Precipitation Models – Winter vs Summer

41 Figure 10.12

42 Figure 10.19

43 What are Ramifications for Shelled Organisms in the Ocean?

44

45 Figure 5.13

46 Sea Level Rise Under Different Scenarios Press presentation, Nov. 17, 2007

47 FAQ 5.1, Figure 1

48 Contributions to Sea Level Rise

49 Greenland Ice Sheet Meltdown

50 The Concept of Tipping Points

51 Inertia in the System

52 General Predictions of Impacts over 21st Century Source - IPCC WGII TAR 2001Thanks to Martha Groom

53 Source: R. Nicholls, Middlesex University in the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997. Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective. People at Risk from a 17-inch Sea-level Rise by the 2080s* *Assuming 1990s level of flood protection

54 Source: EPA Louisiana Shoreline Change with a 20-inch Rise in Sea Level Lake Charles Lafayette Baton Rouge Morgan City Houma New Orleans Gulf of Mexico Land Lost

55 South Florida Shoreline Change with a 1m Rise in Sea Level

56 Projections of Greenland Ice Volume

57 Models of Future Global Warming 2050 Sea Level Rise Associated with collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet


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