1. Abrupt Climate Change

2. Review of last lecture Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the Walker circulation? Two types of ocean upwelling Mean state: ocean-atmosphere feedback ENSO: Which region has warm SST anomaly during El Nino? 4- year period. Existing ENSO theories AMO and thermohaline circulation

3. Global connections

4. The most common atmospheric circulation structure L H H L Heating Cooling or No Heating Imbalance of heating  Imbalance of temperature  Imbalance of pressure  Wind Radiation Convection Conduction Latent/Sensible Biosphere Land/Ocean/Ice/Stra tosphere Feedback Greenhouse Gases Pollution Clouds Precipitation (Latent heat)

5. Projected Change in Global Mean Temperature

6. Abrupt climate change and tipping point – Lesson from Earth’s climate history

7. Termination of the Younger Dryas cold event and last ice age 11,600 years ago

8. Abrupt climate change and history/politics - Collapse of Maya civilization and Chinese ancient dynasties Drought s

9. Bifurcation and tipping point

10. Movie time A global warning?

11. Examples of tipping points

12. Interactions among tipping points

13. Mitigation of global warming: Kyoto protocol Negotiated in 1997. Commits parties to internationally binding emission reduction targets. “Common but differentiated responsibilities” –Specific reduction targets for developed countries –Measures to slow the growth of emissions in developing countries Non-parties: –Canada –USA –Andorra –South Sudan –Palestine –Vatican City

14. Green economy

15. Summary Past abrupt climate change Tipping points Future abrupt climate change Mitigation: International (Kyoto Protocol), Green economy (Renewable energy, Sustainable transportation, Green buildings, Energy-efficient industry and carbon capture, Land management, afforestation, waste management)

16. Work cited http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/abrupt.html http://intercongreen.com/2010/03/15/green-building-ebbs-slightly-in-recession-but- sentiment-remains-strong/http://intercongreen.com/2010/03/15/green-building-ebbs-slightly-in-recession-but- sentiment-remains-strong/ http://nimbuseco.com/2013/01/deforestation-and-pollution-facts/ http://greenbalkans.org/category.php?language=en_EN&cat_id=63 http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ia/newsroom/releases/?cid=nrcs142p 2_011847http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ia/newsroom/releases/?cid=nrcs142p 2_011847 http://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Multimedia/On-the-record/Megan-Clark-presentation- 20090526-generating-industries/Post-Combustion-Carbon-Capture.aspxhttp://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Multimedia/On-the-record/Megan-Clark-presentation- 20090526-generating-industries/Post-Combustion-Carbon-Capture.aspx http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2005/09/the_consumer_dr.html http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/human-health http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0564-112.pdf/$file/EE-0564- 112.pdfhttp://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0564-112.pdf/$file/EE-0564- 112.pdf http://livinggreenmag.com/2012/06/13/climate-change/scientists-warn-that-earth-is- close-to-climate-tipping-point/http://livinggreenmag.com/2012/06/13/climate-change/scientists-warn-that-earth-is- close-to-climate-tipping-point/ http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/29/opinion/mystreet-digital-anthropology/ http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World-airline-routemap-2009.png