1. Overview November 2002 ISA across Europe

2. Trials around Europe - S S Active accelerator Warning system “speed checker” Umeå Sweden

3. Swedish findings and strategy  Accident prediction in line with earlier UK report  National map to be created  ISA will be fitted to SNRA fleet  Agreement to be secured with car industry by 2005 to fit all new vehicles as of 2010  If no agreement is obtained, then the Minister has said he will push for a directive

4. ISA around Euope – NL & DK DK o NL Driver acceptability and Technical possibilities Comparison of different designs

5. New projects in:  France (with involvement of Renault and Peugeot/Citroen)  Belgium (2 projects)

6. UK research on ISA  DETR funded External Vehicle Speed Control (EVSC) project, 1997-2000  Develop a technical specification of a future system  Assess legal implications and acceptability  Study driver behaviour  Predict accident savings and side effects (congestion, fuel consumption, emissions)  Design an implementation strategy  DfT funded ISA project, 2001-05  Field trials with 20 vehicles  Further experimental work  Technology development  Motorcycle and large truck demonstrators

7. Driver behaviour with ISA

8. On-road trials in EVSC (external vehicle speed control)  72 drives  42 mile route  Route covered all road categories and all speed limits except 20 mph  2 ISA variants studied — voluntary and mandatory

9. Speed profile (mandatory system) in rural area

10. Negative interactions and conflicts

11. Findings from on-road trials  Driver speed was mostly dictated by road geometry and traffic  ISA most effective in urban areas/rural villages  Drivers thought the voluntary system was preferable  Drivers did not feel “out of the loop” or exhibit signs of being so

12. Accident Prediction and Implementation Path

13. Changes in distribution of speeds Advisory speed limiter: change in mean speed Mandatory speed limiter: change in shape of distribution

14. Formulae used for accident prediction  Mean speed: For each 1 mph change in mean speed the change in accident risk is as follows (derived from Finch et al., 1994):  Low estimate3.75%  Best estimate5.00%  High estimate9.70%  Speed variance: The formula applied for the relationship between speed variance and risk was derived from West and Dunn (1971) and is: y = 0.0139x 2 + 0.0140x where y is relative risk and x is the speed difference of a vehicle from mean speed in mph

15. Predicted accident reduction from ISA for GB  Advisory: information only  Driver Select: voluntary control  Mandatory: speed limited all the time  Fixed: limits as now (posted)  Variable: + lower where needed  Dynamic: + lower when needed 59% reduction in fatal accidents

16. Other benefits Annual saved fuel consumption:  Petrol £198m  Diesel £117m

17. Costs  Information supply  Create digital road maps  Maintain road maps  Distribute road maps  (Broadcast current speed limits)  On-board system to locate vehicle  Control on the vehicle  HMI

18. B/C ratios for alternative versions of ISA

19. 20002020 The recommended implementation scenario from the EVSC project Voluntary usage 2019 Mandatory usage Manufacture 2013 Production 2010 Standards Standards enacted 2005 Research Decision This gives time for implementing dynamic ISA