1. Robinson v. Mandell, 20 F. Cas. 1027 (C.C.D. Mass. 1868) (No. 11,959)
Howland Will Case
Robinson v. Mandell, 20 F. Cas. 1027 (C.C.D. Mass. 1868) (No. 11,959)

2. Please sign your name three times on a sheet of paper.

3. Fact Summary
1836- Hetty Robinson goes to live with her grandfather and aunt, Sylvia Ann Howland
January 11, Sylvia and Hetty write respective wills
Between 1862 and Sylvia’s physician, Dr. Gordon, writes a letter to Hetty that Sylvia will no longer receive Hetty at her home
September 1, Sylvia signs another will
November 18, Sylvia signs a codicil
July 2, Sylvia dies and leaves an estate worth over $2 million
August Hetty contests the will claiming Sylvia was not mentally competent
November Hetty withdraws August case
December 2, Hetty sues executors of Sylvia’s will
November 14, Hetty’s case is dismissed
December 17, Hetty appeals but later settles with the trustees

4. Comparison of the Wills
January 11, 1862 Will
September 1, 1863/
November 18, 1864 Will
Majority of estate left to Hetty
$100,000 left to friends, causes, institutions
Hetty was also to write a will giving money to her future children or Sylvia’s causes
Both were to exclude Hetty’s father from any inheritance
Alleged amended page that made any subsequent wills invalid
Half of estate left to Hetty in a trust
Half of estate left to friends, causes, institutions
Paid out by Executor Thomas Mandell, Dr. Gordon(Sylvia’s doctor), etc. as they deemed fit

5. The Trial Prosecution Defense Dr. Oliver Wendell Holmes Louis Agassiz
John Quincy Adams
J.C. Crossman
George Morse
John Lowell
George Mathiot
Thomas Mullin
Samuel Swett
Joseph Willard
George Sawyer
Albert Southworth
George Comer
James Congdon
Charles Putnam
Solomon Lincoln
George Phippen, Jr.
Joseph Paine
John Williams
Benjamin Peirce
Charles Sanders Peirce

6. The Statistics Were the signatures forged?
Null hypothesis: Signatures are authentic
Count number and position of downstrokes on 42 undisputed signatures
861 pairs to check and 30 different downstrokes = 25,830 comparisons
Agreement 20.6% of time
Product rule= 0.206^30= chance that signatures are identical

7. The Model

8. The Statistics Points of Consideration
0.206^30 does not equal “once in 2,666 millions of millions of millions”
20 cases agreed times
Model does not fit data at tails
Always assumed independence
Did not look at probability of matches in certain positions
Did not review signatures made closer in time

10. References
Howland, S. A. (1890). The Howland will case. The American Law Register ( ), 38(9, New Series Volume 29 (Second Series, Vol. 3)), Meier, P., & Zabell, S. (1980). Benjamin Peirce and the Howland will. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75(371), Schneps, L., & Colmez, C. (2013). Math on trial: How numbers get used and abused in the courtroom. New York: Basic Books. Slack, C. (2004). Hetty: The genius and madness of America's first female tycoon. New York: ECCO. Sparkes, B., & Moore, S. T. (1930). Hetty Green: A woman who loved money. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, Doran. Wallach, J. (2012). The richest woman in America: Hetty Green in the gilded age. New York: Nan A. Talese/Doubleday.