1. THE WORDED SIDE OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT.......... earl bailey, ebailey@utech.edu.jm University of Technology, Jamaica (UTech) Urban and Regional Planning Department (URP) ebailey@utech.edu.jm The rationalization of rational chaos…!

2. Overview… Little explicit reflection on the philosophical assumptions underlie disaster management. Lack of philosophical assumptions is the reason why most strategies fail or are not sustainable. A theory eliminates or reduces the element of surprise. - “Disasters will happen, disasters do happen”. Unsustainable disaster management efforts are evident in the resurgence and reoccurrences of disasters in the same locale, but with increased frequency, intensity and severity. Theoretical construct exploring the nature of the interactions of hazards (in particular natural hazards) with human systems must be important in informing disaster management activities. The rationalisation of irrationality or the ordering of chaos (self regulating social and structural system)

3. E XPLORING D ISASTER......?! An abrupt departure from traditional modes of functioning of a human system. Caused by human or naturally induced energies to the system. Energies external required to return to traditional normalcy A disaster compromises both the absorptive capacity of the human system and the extent to which it can further support “disruptions” from normalcy. Hazard is part of an ecological process (system dynamics)

4. Beyond relativism - Deliberate and Certain “Disasters will and do happen!” One of the most complex systems to interpret Hazard + human settlement + human behaviour = ? Surprise element - converts hazard into a disaster Disaster Management Plans Intimates theory guidance. Rationalism and rationalistic behaviour. This approach is procedurally over biased at the expense of substance E XPLORING D ISASTER......?!

5. Most evacuation plans are so infatuated with successfully realizing the “evacuation process”. Plan proponents are sometimes not sensitive; – To the reasons why people firstly locate in vulnerable areas and – Why people do not want to be “forced” to leave. D ISASTER MANAGEMENT P LAN.......!

6. Space place relationships Settlement concerns (history of civilisation) Geographic/environmental determinism Disasters prone areas are normally prevalent in areas where there is strong people environment disconnect – Planned vs. Organic place! D ETERMINISMS OF D ISASTER.......!

7. Rational doctrine is at the heart of comprehensive planning The conditions of a disaster are related to the conditions of the place (settlement). Disaster has a comprehensive impact in a localized manner Hazard has a localized origin and a comprehensive make up. The science of the hazard is valid, reliable, and accurate Hazards are insensitive of place space relationships. Scientific theories support a comprehensive approach to hazard interpretation and understanding Mitigation must be defined in the context of the potentially affected place and space. Principles of comprehensive hazard mitigation are contrary to the objectives of effective disaster management. C OMPREHENSIVE D ISASTER M ANAGEMENT......?!

8. R ATIONAL AND CHAOTIC DISASTER PLAN.........!

9. Mitigation must be defined in the context of the potentially affected place and space. Thus the principles of comprehensive hazard mitigation are contrary to the objectives of effective disaster management O N INCREASING CLIMATIC VARIATIONS

10. The place is a specific and deliberate expression of cultural and social particular spatial formation and function comprehensive disaster management is fallacious. One of the most important characteristics of a disaster is its locality S OFT MITIGATION

11. 1.Chaotic systems are deterministic – they have some determining equation ruling their behaviour 2.Chaotic systems are sensitive to initial conditions – even the very slightest change in the starting point can lead to significant different outcomes 3.Chaotic systems are not random, nor orderly – truly random systems are not chaotic, chaos has a sense of order and pattern T HE SPACE PLACE OF RELOCATION, RECOVERY AND REHABILITATION

12. There must be constant and continuous review and redefinition of the metrics of standards to accommodate the changing physical and geographical context in which disasters take place. Soft SOFT MITIGATION.....!

14. CONCLUSION.....!