1. EU Climate Action EU – Central Asia Working Group on
Environmental Governance and Climate Change
2nd Meeting
13-14 September 2012, Almaty
DG Climate Action
European Commission

2. EU climate mitigation action: Where do we stand?
EU27 emissions have decreased by 15.5% below 1990
Decoupling of economic growth and GHG emissions is happening

3. EU climate policy objectives
First step: EU15 Kyoto objectives for
Long term objective: avoiding dangerous climate change, 2°C target; science as orientation
2020 EU target: reduce GHG emissions by 20% below 1990 (30% if the conditions are right)
Core element of Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth
2050 EU objective: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990, in the context of necessary reductions by developed countries as a group

4. EU policy making process: relevant policy objectives
Environmental effectiveness: reduce emissions
Economic efficiency: least cost, thus preference for market-based instruments, including co-benefits, technology neutral
Financial feasibility: additional investment needs
Energy security: diversification, reduce import dependence, esp. renewables
Competitiveness: market liberalisation, level playing field (internal and external)
Employment: impacts on jobs
Subsidiarity: EU-wide vs. Member State level/regions/communities
Solidarity: wide disparity in standard of living across Europe

5. What to do to reach our objectives: from modelling to policy making
Supporting EU policy making by sound socio-economic analysis
Impact Assessments are obligatory (and published)
Baseline trends: how does the problem evolve
Assessing impact of different policy options
Importance of modelling due to future orientation and broad impact of climate policy objectives
Ensuring consistency of the analysis
Quantifying key relationships and impacts
Choice and use of models depends on purpose and geographical/ sectoral focus of the analysis

6. The Climate and Energy Package
Combined economic analysis for -20% GHG target and 20% renewables target
EU Emissions Trading System reducing overall emissions from industrial installations by -21% in 2020 below 2005
Effort Sharing Decision: National GHG emission targets cover other sectors: e.g. buildings, services, agriculture, transport (except aviation): -10% in 2020 below 2005
Respective efforts informed by model-based analysis
Renewable Energy Directive: national targets to increase share of renewables in EU’s energy mix to 20% by 2020 6

7. Fairness: reassessment of costs of the Climate and Energy Package with crisis
Reference 2020 GDP
Additional system costs
Including redistribution
EU27
0.28%
Higher income group
0.27%
0.29%
Lower income group
0.35%
0.23%

8. EU Roadmap 2050 on the basis of science and informed by economics
Need for a low carbon 2050 strategy as framework for longer term action
Need to fix intermediary stages towards the 2050 objective
Science: globally halving of emissions by 2050 cp to 1990
Global economic modelling to inform about EU contribution
EU scenarios how to achieve 80% domestic reduction
Consistent sectoral roadmaps for energy and transport
Need to keep developments under review on a regular basis 8

9. EU Roadmap 2050 - a cost-efficient pathway
80% domestic reduction in 2050 feasible
with currently available technologies
If all economic sectors contribute
Efficient pathway:
-25% in 2020
-40% in 2030
-60% in 2040

10. EU Roadmap 2050: Benefits for energy security, growth and jobs
Energy savings
>30% primary energy savings
Approx. € 400 billion per year in 2050
Shift from fuel costs to investment expenditure
Innovation in key growth sectors crucial for future competitiveness
Potential net job creation up to 1.5 million by 2020
GDP more secure from energy price shocks
Reduced economic risks from climate impacts

11. Adaptation as an increasingly important EU policy strand
Climate change is already happening, we can only influence its extent
2009 EU White Paper on Adaptation
2011 Commission Proposal for next EU budget: mainstreaming of mitigation and adaptation
2012 March: Launch of the European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT)
Planned for 2013: EU Adaptation Strategy

12. International: Durban outcome
Implementation
Kyoto Protocol continues
2nd Commitment period, LULUCF rules, scope, improved CDM
Cancun agreements are operational
Pledges, Transparency, Climate Technology Center Network, Adaptation Committee, New Market Mechanisms, Green Climate Fund
Negotiation
Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
Negotiating a new legally binding agreement by 2015 applicable to all countries;
Right forum to address national circumstances
Addressing the ambition gap until 2020

13. International: Next steps
Implementation
Kyoto Protocol
Commitment Period: Define QELROs, carry-over of AAUs, length of commitment period
Cancun agreements made operational
Progress on implementing pledges
Sources of funding up to 2020
Negotiation
Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
Work plan until 2015, efficiency of negotiation process
Identify additional short-term mitigation action
High ambition alliance

14. Thank you!