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The WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE on flood forecasting in the Alps Authors: Arpagaus, Dorninger, Hegg, Montani, Ranzi, Rotach Presentation:

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1 The WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE on flood forecasting in the Alps Authors: Arpagaus, Dorninger, Hegg, Montani, Ranzi, Rotach Presentation: Saskia Willemse, MeteoSwiss Technical Conference preceding CAS XV 16-17 November 2009, Incheon, South Korea

2 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Outline D-PHASE essentials Key elements and characteristics Achievements and outreach Lessons learned & future developments

3 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) D-PHASE essentials Forecast Demonstration Project for MAP 2 nd WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) Focus on heavy precipitation and flood forecasting D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP): June to November 2007 (COPS & “MAP season”) 9 countries involved 30 atmospheric models / 7 hydrological models in over 40 catchments

4 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system Medium range Short range Now- casting

5 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Key elements of D-PHASE Centralised Visualisation Platform (forecasts & alerts; in real-time); Data archiving (  COPS); Nowcasting tools; Systematic integration of end users; Evaluation, objective and subjective.

6 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) 8.8.2007, ~ 15:00 local time Overview: Is there any alert? Where?

7 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) 8.8.2007, ~ 15:00 local time More details: Which models alert?

8 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Key characteristics of D-PHASE Same look and feel for all models (colour coding etc.)  joint alert definitions  same script to determine alerts  same programs for plots Full information is provided to the end user; the diversity of forecasts is visible Hierarchical layout allowing to zoom in – from an overview to the details

9 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) 8.8.2007, ~ 15:00 local time Same plots (variables, colour coding, …) for all models

10 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Achievements Unprecedented data set  model intercomparison / validation  process studies (with COPS)  test beds (COST 731 for Data Assimilation, HEPEX)  Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (WG MWFR) Demonstration of operational coupling of hydrological and meteorological models JDC = Joint D-PHASE/COPS Verification data set

11 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Achievements Participation of users  45 end users institutions (civil protection...)  workshops & questionnaires  feedback  exchange of needs Scientific results  advances in ensemble hydrological modelling  radar ensemble, high-resolution EPS, high-res reforecasting, fuzzy verification, economic forecast value, ….  21 peer reviewed papers  72 reports and ext. abs.  165 presentations BAMS Paper, Sept 2009

12 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Achievements Findings  high resolution atmospheric models prove better  importance of ensemble modelling  Single-model ensemble substantially gains from calibration  value of ‘ensemble observations’ (radar ensemble) resolved conv. param. conv. Relative value

13 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Outreach D-PHASE/COPS data set as testbed for COST / HEPEX, IMRE D-PHASE as role model for Swiss natural hazards platform (GIN)  VP still up and running until GIN goes life…. Many operational hydrological services started to use model-based input (I, CH, D) Funded research projects  Priority Programme QPF (several)  FP7 Imprints  Austrian Science Foundation (VERITA)  FOEN, Switzerland  Univ Hamburg funding

14 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) End users feedback Resolution needs to further increase (and will) Take end users early on board EPS’s need careful support (for interpretation) ‘Ensemble thinking’ for air pollution modelling, heat wave warnings, health impact (e.g., pollen), …

15 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Interoperability International agreements needed (procedures, thresholds) Multi-model availability by far exceeds multi-model use… In the transformation to operations the commercial value of meteorological data is a barrier

16 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Future FDP‘s Finances Ways of dissemination within WMO / member countries ‘increase involvement of users and NMHSs from developing countries in future FDP’s...’ Themes / activity: WWRP could also propose themes

17 MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009 Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch) Meteo- Swiss ARPA- SIMC Uni Wien Uni Brescia ARPA Veneto WSL Météo France ISAC- CNR Met Office Uni Paul Sabatier ETHZ ZAMG DLR Uni Hohenheim AEMet CNMCA ARPA Liguria IMK-IFU Env Canada BAFU ARPA Lombardia POLIMI LUBW ARPA Piemonte WWA Kempten APAT Data Provider Operational Service University Res. Inst. SRNWP DWD Steering Committee & WG chairmen Thanks!

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