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GEO Work Plan Symposium 2014 WE-01 Jim Caughey THORPEX IPO.

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Presentation on theme: "GEO Work Plan Symposium 2014 WE-01 Jim Caughey THORPEX IPO."— Presentation transcript:

1 GEO Work Plan Symposium 2014 WE-01 Jim Caughey THORPEX IPO

2 WE-01 Key 2014 Outputs Enhancements to databases of ensemble global weather forecasts from ten production centres (TIGGE) : Australia (BOM), Brazil (CPTEC), Canada (CMC), China (CMA), France (MétéoFrance), Japan (JMA), Korea (KMA), UK (Met Office), USA (NCEP) and ECMWF Development of prototype near real time multi- model ensemble products for tropical cyclone forecasting and initial evaluation through the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects (SWFDPs) A new database of European regional ensemble weather forecasts (TIGGE-LAM) : registered in GCI, (funded by the EU GEOWOW project)

3 TIGGE concept TIGGE uses global- regional-national cascade pioneered by the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). Further development and evaluation of products will be done in conjunction with SWFDP and other regional pilot projects. Use of web-enabled technology for generation and distribution of products.

4 Warnings of other severe weather events Prototype products have been developed based on gridded forecast data, such as this product which highlights the risk of heavy rainfall. Prototype product courtesy Mio Matsueda Similar products also available for hot & cold temperatures, strong winds

5 WE-01 Cross-Task Activities Water-Weather Flood forecasting with TIGGE-HEPS (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble –Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System). Within the EU GEOWOW project, work is underway with the hydrological community on global river flow predictions and comparison with river discharge observations. Overview: River discharge is a critical water cycle variable, essential for many water resource applications and wide range of users (environmental and civil protection authorities, transport, insurance… Main aim Model river discharge using TIGGE archive and validate model outputs using GRDC observation Anticipated output: Interactive platform for the visualization and investigation of river discharge Any other GEO Task that can utilise multi-model ensemble forecast data.

6 FORCING weather parameters (TIGGE models) INIT+CLIM initial conditions & climate (ECMWF) HTESSEL land-surface model (ECMWF) CaMa-Flood river routing PRODUCTS GEOWOW multi-disciplinary scenario

7 WE-01 Evidence of the use of Task related systems, datasets, information products and services Access to the TIGGE archives at ECMWF, NCAR and CMA is routinely monitored. There are more than 100 routine users downloading and analysing data. Regular literature surveys are conducted showing that about 140 papers have been published so far. Prototype products have been developed and these will be trialled within a quasi-operational environment (the WMO SWFDPs) –Tropical cyclone track & strike probability forecasts; –Risks of heavy rainfall, strong winds & extreme temperatures Policy Linkages The policy related to TIGGE data and derived products is set by the national hydro-meteorological services contributing the data.

8 WE-01 Intervention needed from GEO Members and POs to Achieve 2015 Strategic Targets This element of the 2015 Strategic Weather target should be achieved given continuing contributions from participants and the remaining funding from the GEOWOW project….

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