Presentation on theme: "Analysis of FRMS Forum data using BAM 2 September 2011"— Presentation transcript:
1Analysis of FRMS Forum data using BAM 2 September 2011 FRMS Forum, September 2011, MontrealDRAFT, not for distribution!Analysis of FRMS Forum data using BAM 2 September 2011Tomas Klemets, Head of Scheduling Safety, Jeppesen
2Background and Purpose About BAM ContentBackground and PurposeAbout BAMFeatures / Capabilities / LimitationsAnalysis of data providedUpcoming functionality
4Jeppesen and Jeppesen Crew Solutions 3,000 employeesDenver, Frankfurt, Gothenburg, Montreal, Singapore, New York, Brisbane...Navigation, Flight planning, and:Crew Solutions: 500 people focused entirely on crew management.Affecting some 250,000 crew daily.Mostly crew planning, but also day-of-ops solutions
5Why a need for models and BAM? Regulatory rule sets, as well as union/pilot agreements are really binary fatigue modelsPerfectly safe / Perfectly un-safeAlignment with current science is so-so...What you can’t measure...Mathematical prediction models, even if not perfect, provides a continous metric......to be used for influencing, to push, an overall collection of crew schedules away from unneccessary fatigueCrew scheduling with a metric for human physiology!
7The science behind BAMBased on the Three Process Model of Alertness by Åkerstedt / FolkardPredicts sleepinessSleep prediction enhanced to better reflect flight operation and take sleep oppurtunity into accountNo published validation studies to date on airline crew but straightforward for an airline to check applicabilityReturns continous predictions on a scale 0-10,000High resolution a need for optimizationKSS , easy to close the loopThe Karolinska Sleepiness Scale - KSSThe Common Alertness Scale - CAS
8Science (2) - Most recent and relevant references
9BAM featuresBAM is built to support the complex crew management processes for airlines of all sizes.Integration with industry strength optimizers generating up to 6000 rosters per second over many hoursInitial state assumptions for pairing constructionAugmentation, acclimatisation...CustomizabilityHabitual sleep length, Diurnal type, Transfer timesSleep/wake overridesPrediction point
10BAM features (2) CAPI compliant – easy to connect and exchange Usable in a more comprehensive risk layer taking mission context into account: weather, airport properties, crew experience, light conditions, etc...LimitationsPredicts the average of a populationDoes not take actual light conditions into account, approximates via time zoneSleep inertia is not implementedBAM (as any model?) should primarily be used to rank relative fatigue between flights
11BAM evolutionBAM is built to self-tune in a closed-loop system to collected dataAirline collectionsCrowd sourcing (FDC 2011)
13A B C D The task: Pairings Rosters Short haul Long haul 1094 / 90[flights / chains]3693 / 56Short haulCD188 / 471006 / 64Long haul1. Which are the worst flights and why? Example also of good ones.2. Which are the worst pairings/rosters and why? Examples also of good ones.(Ignore mission context – all flights are equally ”difficult”).
14Tools used for the analysis CFASCrewAlertScenarios
17Some of the worst flights *) A*) From a fatigue risk perspective ignoring mission difficultyTime of day. Slight sleep deprivation previous night, no/little chance for afternoon sleep when departing home 15:46. Many consecutive days and sectors adds a bit to the problem.615
18Some of the worst flights (2) ATime of day. Slight sleep deprivation previous night, no/little chance for afternoon sleep when departing home 15:46. Many consecutive days and sectors adds a bit to the problem.618
19Some of the worst flights (3) ATime of day. Slight sleep deprivation previous night, no/little chance for afternoon sleep when departing home 15:46. Many consecutive days and sectors adds a bit to the problem.769
20Some of the worst flights (4) ATime of day. Sleep deprivation from falling asleep at 3AM. Many consecutive days and sectors adds a bit to the problem.1154
21Some of the worst flights (5) ATime of day. Two-pilot operation through the WOCL. Sleep deprivation. 2h acclimatisation west – but small effect.1169
26Risk...The operational risk we try to adress is for a flight to suffer an ”adverse event” with crew fatigue as a contributor or a direct causeA flight!The total operational risk (of this type) for the airline is the sum over all flights.Most likely a weighted sum...A pairing or a roster can rarely be modified in isolation!All flights in a crew scheduling problem need to be assessed at once...
27Risk for a flight vs. risk for a pairing or a roster... Lowest point during a flight, top of descent, average, or time below treshold.Doesn’t really matter when reshuffling a sequence of flights!What is worst? (recall low is bad...)Pairing 1; active flights on 600, 3000, 3300, 2700Pairing 2; active flights on 700, 700, 700, 700
28The operational risk for an airline... CP hour on typeCP hours totalCP airport recencyCP predicted alertnessFO hour on typeFO ...Airport elevationRunway lengthLight conditionsWind direction/forceRain/hail/snowVisibilityAirport equipmentAirport terrainAirport trafficAircraft MEL items...(More on this in the proceedings from IASS 2009)
29BAM and operational risk There is no sharp threshold on predicted alertness where risk suddenly goes from non-existant to non-acceptableRisk grows exponentially when approaching 0BAM is built to adress also the total riskAll flights in the lower tail of the alertness distribution makes sense to improveRA
30BAM and operational risk (2) When constructing pairings and rosters – one alertness value per flight is sufficientBAM is configurable and supports using either:Lowest point during flightLowest point during a customizable part of the flightPrediction at a certain point in the flight – like TOD(True fatigue risk management takes mission difficulty into account when prioritising crew assignments.)
75Where should fatigue be managed? Crew management processesFollow-upDay ofoperationMaintainplanningPlanningMid term manpowerLong term manpowerFEBMAR*MARAPR...JUL…MAR‘10Today*TodayCorrect dataSalary eventsPassenger focusLegality / feasibilitySecure revenueUse reservesTrip tradesMaintain productivity Maintain sby levels Crew qualityProductivityReal costsRobustnessQuality of lifeEnough instructors?LeaveLeave of absence?Move crew btw bases?Adjust the schedule?Recruit?Transition training?Base size?Qualification structure in cabin?Crew negotiations?LeavePromote instructors?
76Answer: Where it’s introduced. Crew management processesFollow-upDay ofoperationMaintainplanningPlanningMid term manpowerLong term manpowerFEBMAR*MARStation, Departure time, Equipment, Augmentation, Choice of hotel, Deadheading, ...APR...JUL…MAR‘10Today*TodayTime table planningManpower PlanningApplications:Crew PairingCrew PairingMaintain what has been planned...Crew RosteringCrew RosteringCrew TrackingThe flight ”context”: Surrounding activities/flights on the roster, Individual history and circumstances
77Sequence of flights + attr. Sequence of flights + attr. The overall concept...Take fatigue / alertness into account while recombining the sequence of flightsFlight ScheduleRiskCrew PairingRulesObjectivesCrew RostersCrew RosteringCAPIFatigue ModelPredicted AlertnessSequence of flights + attr.Fatigue ModelPredicted AlertnessSequence of flights + attr.The Common Alertness Prediction InterfaceFatigue ModelFatigue Model77
79Context sensitive mitigation advice ProductsContext sensitive mitigation advice(Jan/Feb 2012)CrewAlertGet started using a fatigue modelGet aquainted with a model. Investigate individual patterns and see how science “plays out“ on a roster. Collect fatigue data easily from your operation!1
802 1 Products CFAS Extensive Fatigue Assessment with any solution https://cfas.jeppesensystems.comCFASExtensive Fatigue Assessment with any solutionFatigue Assessment on thousands of pairings or rosters in seconds through a web service. Show control and progress internally and to a regulator. Learn and improve from bad patterns. Use with any system!2CrewAlertGet started using a fatigue model1
813 2 1 Products BAM Your current system CAPI CAPI Integrate in your environmentYour current systemCAPI3CFASExtensive Fatigue Assessment with any solutionThe CAPI1 interface is available for licensing enabling a direct integration with BAM and other compliant fatigue models. Allows for adding direct decision support and visualization for planning / re-planning. Requires a system change. 1) The Common Alertness Prediction Interface2CrewAlertGet started using a fatigue model1
824 3 2 1 Products Jeppesen Crew Solutions Optimize using a model CAPI RobustnessReal CostsProductivityQualityJeppesen Crew SolutionsOptimize using a model4AlertnessCAPIIntegrate in your environment3CFASExtensive Fatigue Assessment with any solution2CrewAlertGet started using a fatigue modelBoost alertness while constructing your crew schedules with Jeppesen optimizers. Implement a minimum alertness level and/or introduce incentives to boost alertness in full control of the balance with other factors. Identify FTL/LBA loopholes and wise alleviations.1
834 3 2 1 Products BAM, Boeing FAID, Interdynamics SAFE, Qinetiq Jeppesen Crew SolutionsOptimize using a modelJeppesen strives to provide all the leading fatigue models throughout the portfolio. The CAPI specification has been shared and confirmed to fulfill the data provisioning needs of several leading models.4CAPIIntegrate in your environmentStatus Aug’11: Only BAM fully compliant to CAPI 2.03Fatigue ModelsBAM, BoeingFAID, InterdynamicsSAFE, QinetiqSAFTE, IBRCFASExtensive Fatigue Assessment with any solution2CrewAlertGet started using a fatigue model1
84Consultancy Impact assessments, finding relaxations, … ServicesConsultancy Impact assessments, finding relaxations, …Fatigue ModelsAssess your current planned or actualized rosters. Investigate options. Re-run with world class optimization using also FRM capabilities. Sensitivity analysis…
85Consultancy Impact assessments, finding relaxations, … ServicesConsultancy Impact assessments, finding relaxations, …Training Three-day training course for planners, safety pilots and managersFatigue Models
86Consultancy Impact assessments, finding relaxations, … ServicesConsultancy Impact assessments, finding relaxations, …Training Three-day training course for planners, safety pilots and managersFatigue ModelsData collection surveys Using CrewAlert but also “full surveys” offered via BoeingData collected with crewAlert is uploaded to Jeppesen and directly structured for further processing/analysis. Avoiding interpetation and formatting of paper work often taking weeks or months to complete…
87Services Consultancy Impact assessments, finding relaxations, … Training Three-day training course for planners, safety pilots and managersFatigue ModelsData collection surveys Using CrewAlert but also “full surveys” offered via BoeingService Bureau Remote Planning using FRMOften a continuation of a consultancy study allowing for quickly using the improved planning results – with Jeppesen staff doing the scheduling. Pairings and rosters.
884 3 2 1 Products Services www.jeppesen.com/frm Jeppesen Crew SolutionsOptimize using a modelConsultancy Impact assessments, finding relaxations, …4CAPIIntegrate in your environmentTraining Three-day training course for planners, safety pilots and managers3Fatigue ModelsCFASExtensive Fatigue Assessment with any solutionData collection surveys Using CrewAlert but also “full surveys” offered via Boeing2CrewAlertGet started using a fatigue modelService Bureau Remote Planning using FRM1
90Sleep journals with actual sleep/wake Predicted alertness average CrewAlertFlight dutiesAn evolving application to make sleep science more available.Currently meant primarily for crew schedulers and safety pilots to learn about sleep science (as represented by BAM)Also built for collecting operational fatigue dataIn work…A schedule communication toolFatigue mitigation advice for crewPredicted sleepSleep journals with actual sleep/wakePredicted alertness averageSelf assessmentsPredicted alertness 90%
91CrewAlert – collecting data Data collection has in the past been cumbersome, fragmented and quite expensive…Collected data is by design now:quality assured at entrywell structuredsecurely delivered back to the airline safeguarding personal integrity.Not a “full scientific study”, but a very cost effective alternative