Presentation on theme: "Nikos Fistas, Phil Platt ACP Working Group C 10th Meeting,"— Presentation transcript:
1Inmarsat SwiftBroadband: Capability to Support Aeronautical Safety Services Nikos Fistas, Phil PlattACP Working Group C10th Meeting,13-17 March 2006, MontrealLadies and Gentlemen,Allow me to give you a quick overview of where we are with CASCADE.European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
2EUROCONTROL StudyEUROCONTROL launched study at end 2004 with the aim ...“of helping the aviation community to assess how Aero-BGAN could improve its communication infrastructure in fulfilling the aviation requirements, what would be the resulting concept of operation in different world regions, what are the expected associated cost, and how major institutional and business issues would be solved.”AeroBGAN now called SwiftBroadband
3Study ConsortiumContract awarded to a consortium with key industry partners to carry out the studyQinetiQ - leaderInmarsatSITAThales AvionicsEADS AstriumConsultation with Stakeholders e.g. through NexSAT SG, AEEC and ANASTASIA
4Study OverviewWP1 – Technical Characteristics of SwiftBroadband and its potential to support ATS applicationsWP2 – Institutional IssuesWP3 – Airborne ArchitecturesWP4 – Cost and ChargesWP5 – Executive Summary
5WP1 – Report Overview Overview of BGAN described SwiftBroadband features described:Key points; Edge of coverage performance, beam and satellite transition capabilities, narrow spot beam activationPotential for investigation into ‘fall-back’ service in event of SwiftBroadband outageComparison with NexSAT HLMR, COCRIdentify shortcomings in SBBPossible upgrades describedPriority, pre-emption and precedenceParty line using 3G multicastNotePerformance programme with production standard equipment now completed, SwiftBroadband avionics data available circa. mid 2007 data not available during the course of the project – BGAN Beta testAnnex with more detail on channel and coding rates supplied
6WP1 - Packet Switched Service Data rates up to 432kbit/sHigh Speed internet access available globally from small terminals for all mobilesBased on IPv4Performance enhanced by TCP/IP accelerator to compensate for satellite delayDSL-class internet accessRadio Resource Management (RRM) to maintain minimum data rates as required
7WP1 - Circuit Switched Services: Voice and Data Direct Dial Voice ServiceOptimised 4 kb/s “AMBE+2” codecglobal access and mobility ( …)Voic ServicesStandard UMTS Supplementary ServicesISDN Bearer Services (same as Swift64)64 kb/s UDI Service to terrestrial ISDN networks3.1kHz Audio Service for PCM voice, fax, and V-series modem supportText Messagingsend to or receive from any SMS-capable device
8WP1 - Terminal Types Existing mode Existing mode BGAN Mode SwiftBroadbandSwift 64Swift 64--regionalregionalHigh gain (Class 6 UT)Aero high gain BGAN••64kbit/s ISDN & MPDS64kbit/s ISDN & MPDS••266232––422492kbitkbit/s rx/s rx•Aero H/H+Aero H/H+--globalglobal••332225––492492kbitkbit/s/stxtx•Voice, fax, PM data••Voice, fax, PM dataVoice, fax, PM data•Potential for Safety services••Safety servicesSafety servicesAero IAero I--regionalregionalAero I BGANInt. gain (Class 7 UT)••2.42.4kbitkbit/s fax and data/s fax and data••200200––344344kbitkbit/s rx/s rx••4.84.8kbitkbit/s X.25/s X.25••192192––332332kbitkbit/s/stxtx••Safety servicesSafety services•Voice, fax, PM data•Potential for Safety servicesAero LAero L--globalglobalLow gain (Class 4 UT)*Aero low gain BGAN••1.21.2kbitkbit/s PMD/s PMD••kbittbd kbit/s rx/s rx••Safety servicesSafety services••kbittbd kbit/stx/stx•Voice,PM data•Potential for Safety servicesLow gain (Class 4 UT) is a possible future service. It is being studied as part of Anastasia project
9WP1 - IOR narrow spot beam coverage of ECAC The map depicts Inmarsat’s expectations of coverage but does not represent a guarantee of service. The availability of service at the edge of coverage areas fluctuate depending upon a variety of conditions.
10WP1 – AOR(W) narrow spot beam coverage of ECAC The map depicts Inmarsat’s expectations of coverage but does not represent a guarantee of service. The availability of service at the edge of coverage areas fluctuate depending upon a variety of conditions.
11WP1 – Additional features required for Safety Service In Oceanic Airspace Priority and pre-emption (in aircraft, in RAN, in CN).Redundancy (in event of major satellite failure)Two approachesMore SBB capable satellitesIf so must probably wait until next generation of Inmarsat satellites are available.Use Swift64 or classic as fallbackNeed redundant ground segmentBGAN already provides thisMechanisms to switch quickly to redundant satelliteAddressing – is SIM addressing acceptable (as is today in SBB) or does it need to use ICAO address?Data connectionIntegration of IP bearer within ATS infrastructure
12WP1 – Additional features required for Safety Service In Enroute Airspace As before plusConfirmation that Party line is neededMultiple SBB directional antennas neededSingle antenna cannot meet availability criteria due to antenna key hole effects e.g. during bankingWill need an omni service to allow operation to all aircraft in sectorCapacity of SBB needs to be confirmed
13WP1 – ATS RequirementsRequirements are key to assessing technology capabilityATS communications requirements are complexneed understood operational concept from which communication requirements can be drawnComparison with COCRCOCR timescale spans up to at least 2030 in two PhasesPhase 1 completion is around 2020 with implementation starting nowPhase 2 is beyond 2020SwiftBroadband is relevant to Phase 1 only as this is nearing the end of the planned satellite lifetime
14WP1 - ATS Capacity Requirements Capacity - air/ground addressed - per service volume in kbps for Phase 1APT=airport, ENR = Enroute, ORP = Oceanic/Remote/PolarHD = high density, LD = low density
16WP1 - Potential use of SwiftBroadband for ATS Initial assessment of SBB not clearC,I, A figures needs to be confirmed
17WP2 - Institutional Issues The business model has changed significantlyLESOs are no longer in the supply chainInmarsat continues to be a ‘focussed wholesaler’
18WP2 – Business model Inmarsat business model ‘Classic aero’ service is supported on the I-4 satellites and accessed under the existing arrangementsBGAN is based on a different business model to ‘classic aero’ servicesService is operated through Inmarsat owned facilitiesDistribution Partners provide access to the service to end-userspossibility that ANSPs in the future could have direct arrangement with Inmarsat
19WP2 - Commercial IssuesExisting CSPs will continue to offer Classic Aero services but cannot offer BGAN services without serving a cooling off period of 1 year.Inmarsat has negotiated agreements with 10 Land BGAN DPs.None yet for “aero” services, hence pricing undecided.SLAs yet to be defined.Inmarsat only liable for acts of gross negligence, wilful misconduct or fraud.Damages limited to US$1M or previous 12 months wholesale chargesNot clear yet if this will apply to “aero”Whatever arrangement is in place will flow on to ANSPs.
20WP2 - Competitive Issues Two types of competition need to be considered.Inter-Service CompetitionCompetition for satellite service provisionIntra-Service CompetitionCompetition within the supply chain between DPs, CSPs, etc.
21WP 2 – Risk: Safety and Technical Can be broken down to Operational and Technical RiskOperational – effect of failures, certification levels, SLAsTechnical – obsolescence, refurbishment, life-cycle planning.Conclusions:OperationalCNS systems must remain the tools of ATMIncreased certification levels will make costs prohibitiveEven with the highest availability levels failures will happen, hence workarounds are neededCommercial pressures will force DPs, CSPs to be more responsive.SLA’s must cover more than techical performance:Notification procedures, thresholds, escalation procedures, fault handling.
22WP 2 – Risk: Safety and Technical Conclusions (cont’d)With no backup satellite, satellite failure is the biggest riskSwiftBroadband , as currently planned, can only be a supplementary means of communication – for critical communicationsAdditional satellites can remedy thisTechnicalLife-Cycle Planning essential (for Inmarsat, DPs, CSPs)Plans for technological obsolescence neededRegular capacity planningSatellite Datalink traffic has doubled recentlyAvoidance of proprietary system componentsAlternatives needed for spares/upgrades
23WP2 – Risk: Financial/Commercial Financial/Commercial Risk could affect both Service Providers and end-users.First the Service Providers:Financial returns need to be adequate to fund capacity expansion.Experience with the “Classic” service has been that Inmarsat and SITA have funded capacity improvements for Earth Stations that they neither own nor operate.Change in Inmarsat business model will help overcome this issue“Flat Price” pricing models will hamper growth.These can be used if reviewed regularly or limited to specialised or niche services.Charges must bear some relationship to traffic levels.
24WP2 – Risk: Financial/Commercial For End-Users:Safety-related services – longevity, stabilityA monopoly position would provide this however end-users would not enjoy the benefits of competition:Competitive Price PressureImproved Customer ServiceRapid service introductionMost importantly, alternatives should a provider fail financiallyICAO Acceptability Criteria require AMS(R)S providers to commit to provide service for six years.what happens when/if that provider fails financially?
25WP2 – Risk: Financial/Commercial End-Users (cont’d)However we shouldn’t have too much of a good thing!Why?Erosion of profit margins – limits future investment.Instability – providers entering and leaving market.Modest competition is the solution:Benefits forthcoming without loss of financial incentives.The solution:Strict enforcement of standardsNatural barrier to entryEnsures portability.Guaranteed minimum service lifetimeICAO acceptability criteria a good start, needs to apply to all providersReduced barriers to entry for non-performance/safety related issues.COTS not proprietary solutions.
26WP 3 - Aircraft Architecture Target is to achieve significant equipage levels for both long-haul and short-haul/smaller aircraft to be useful as complementary systemLong-haul aircraft are more likely to be equipped with High Gain Antenna SwiftBroadband systemShort-haul/smaller aircraft unlikely unless small physical size and significantly cheaperLow gain system can be considered the common denominatorMain issue to overcome is interruption of service due to manoeuvring of aircraft because of antenna keyholesLess of an issue for oceanic operation
27WP3 - Interfaces To Cockpit-Data Current interface isData2/Williamsburg/Arinc 429 (FANS 1/A)Data3/Williamsburg/Arinc 429 (ATN compatible)Key question is how this will migrate to the IP environment supported by SwiftBroadbandTunnel existing Data2/3 over IPMigrate to pure IP environmentICAO ACP is considering accommodating IPWhere will this function resideIn SDU?In another unit?Industry will need to consider this
28WP4 - Costs and Charges Infrastructure costs - SwiftBroadband service support will be more complex (and expensive) due to:Higher traffic levels, higher data ratesA much broader range of services
29WP4 - Capital Investments Avionics costsLong haul aircraft systems essentially paid for by passenger/airline applicationsTypical costs around $ KShort haul aircraft system justification may be more difficult - more cost attributable to ATS applicationslow cost solution needed - target cost around high end VHF radioTarget figure identified in earlier NexSAT Steering Group meeting was in the order of $50k
30WP4 - Recurring CostsSatellite Operator - space segment and ground station operating costs, service support systemsDPs/CSPs – network support costs, performance reporting, accounting/billing, customer support, help-deskBoth entities also incur GS&A costs as well as the costs to promote and market the respective servicesFor DPs/CSPs, ATS represent premium services:Higher performance levels and reportingStricter SLAsMore customer supportMore industry support required
31WP4 – Market SizeMarket Size somewhat uncertain – uptake of new services will determine success or otherwise.Likely evolutionary paths are as follows:New aircraft will be equipped with SBB (or equivalents)Existence of new passenger services will encourage greater useWeb-surfing, streaming applications, VPN,New services may encourage airlines to equip short-haul and even regional aircraftAn ATS mandate will increase penetration furtherWe believe that this progression will occur in sequence
33WP4 – Traffic Projections Inmarsat traffic projection model populated during the study gives the results for the scenariosSome observationsThe wide variation in outcomes means that providers must assume a large amount of risk.Providers are optimistic however this is based on three key provisions:Low-cost avionics will support equipage on Short-Haul and Regional aircraft.Surveys reveal that a large proportion of business travellers would use their own cell-phone if they could.By 2015 a whole generation of travellers will have grown up with cell-phones and the internet. They will want to stay in touch!
34WP4 – Charging Models A range of possibilities: the pay as you go modelthe fixed-price modelDPs/CSPs prefer schemes where revenue is linked to usageAutomatically helps fund capacity/service improvementsEnd-Users prefer the all-inclusive fixed price modelPredictable costs, ease of budgetingThe likely outcome will be….
35WP4 – Future Charging Schemes Indications are that most airlines will make use of fixed-fee, multilink agreementsFee will be related to fleet size for airlinesStepped traffic allowances (to protect DPs, CSPs)“Multilink” means that the same fee will apply regardless of the link usedATS services will still be considered premium services
36WP4 - Way aheadAs mentioned under “Institutional Issues”, distribution agreements for SwiftBroadband have yet to be negotiatedUntil DPs know the wholesale price that they will be charged it is impossible to determine a realistic final user chargeThese are all subject to negotiation and hence are confidentialWhat can be said is that unit prices will be significantly lowerUsage will affect charge significantly
37WP4 - Price Determination Process Determine PricingStrategyEffects on Demand(elasticity)Multiple IterationsFinalize Price withDPsSatellite ProviderDistribution PartnersNegotiate Pricewith End-Users
38WP4 - Communication Service pricing Various price models have been exploredFactors that will finally determine the SwiftBroadband pricing policy include, but will not be limited to:several pricing options and rates - finalised six months before the service launchPricing of ATS messaging will have to take into account the specialised and significant infrastructure and support facilities needed for an aeronautical service
39WP4 – Enterprise (land) pricing Charging for BGAN land-mobile services is volume sensitive. When purchased in bulk by way of a package- plan, prices for the background IP service can vary between US$3.75 to US$6.95 per Megabyte.Voice services are not categorised according to traffic types and typically carry a charge of around a US1.00 per minute for regular circuit switched traffic.
40Conclusions (1/2)Initial SwiftBroadband services aimed at passenger and some airline applicationsSwiftBroadband appears to have potential for ATS provisionMeets capacity requirements in COCR Phase 1Will not meet availability requirements as a primary meansLack of satellite redundancyAircraft antenna coverage key holes when manoeuvringCurrent lack of priority and pre-emptionIP versus ATNOffers potential as complementary systemcould have indirect benefit for ATS by handling more capacity consuming AOC applications
41Conclusions (2/2)Enhancements to BGAN infrastructure to enhance performance to meet ATS requirements possiblebut investments need to be justified throughout supply chainMore information of the performance of SwiftBroadband will emerge as the service is introducedUnresolved issues will probably be addressed through the ANASTASIA project