Presentation on theme: "Report from DAOS-WG Roger Saunders and Tom Hamill with input from WG members 1."— Presentation transcript:
1 Report from DAOS-WGRoger Saunders and Tom Hamill with input from WG members1
2 Overview Highlights from Madison meeting Actions from Madison and ICSC9WG Matters (membership, meetings)Future of DAOS2
3 Mission statementTo achieve its mission the DAOS WG, in collaboration with the CBS OPAG-IOS:Addresses Data Assimilation issues including the development of improved understanding of the sources and growth of errors in analyses and forecastsPromotes research activities that lead to a better use of observations and the understanding of their valueProvides input and guidance for THORPEX regional campaigns for the deployment of observations to achieve scientific objectives.
4 DAOS-5 WG meeting Madison, 19-20 Sep 2012 Update on targetingUpdates on THORPEX field campaignsReview observing systemsReview developments in data assimilationWG matters
5 Targeted Observations Plan to submit a thinnedversion to BAMS during 2013.2. Analysis of WSR 2010/11cases3. WSR 2011/12 case
6 ESRLImpact of Targeted Dropsonde Data on Mid-latitude Numerical Weather Forecasts during the 2011 Winter Storms Reconnaissance ProgramPresented by Tom HamillForecasts and assimilations : Carla Cardinali, ECMWFData analysis : Fanglin Yang, NCEPalso: Sharanya Majumdar, RSMAS, U. MiamiQuestion: will assimilation of mid-latitude dropsonde data have as large an impact as previously shown, given denser observation network, better assimilation systems and models?
8 Scatterplot of impacts For each case wheredropsondes were launched, a downstream target location and verification time are identified. Data areplotted here only for thesetimes/target locations.Verification area here is a +/- 10 degree box centered on target. Verification norm is an approximation to thetotal-energy norm.Cases above line indicate benefit from targeted data.No obvious beneficialimpact.
9 Selecting target locations for tropical cyclones: SV/adjoint vs Selecting target locations for tropical cyclones: SV/adjoint vs. ETKF Brett Hoover (Univ Wisconsin)SV/adjoint guidance = strictly based on dynamics of perturbation growth. Suggests target locations around cyclone.ETKF guidance = estimates reduction of forecast error variance as a result of assimilation at given location based on linear mappings between ensemble forecast perturbations and analysis perturbations. Suggests target locations also along jet stream, commonly in ridges N of TC. These affect cyclone steering.
10 Summary of targetingClear benefits of targeted observations for TC forecasts.In study with 4D-Var assimilation & ECMWF model, little impact seen for mid-latitude systems (2011 WSR).Targeting’s future:Global observational network design: use targeting strategies to adaptively select / thin satellite data for assimilation?Potential to adapt targeting concepts to work in concert with rapidly adaptable observational resources, e.g., cloud-drift winds from rapid-scan imagery. But: need quick, efficient algorithms.
11 Concordiasi = CONCORDIA-IASI A French-US initiative for climate / meteorology over AntarcticaImprove the use of space-borne atmospheric sounders over polar regions, in particular IASI on board MetOpBenefit from the continental French-Italian stationConcordia11
12 Analysis Uncertainty, 45°S to 70°S Analysis differences: observational gap leads to large differences off AntarcticaTo the north: Geostationary satellite winds, ship surface obs, commercial aircraft routesTo the south: Antarctic raobs and land surface data, MODIS and AVHRR windsWindsAMSU/MHSConventional
13 Observation impact diagnostics, Meteo-France, NASA-GMAO, ECMWF, NRL (obs south of 60 S) NRL AMVs includes LEO-GEO winds, and thesehave a big positiveimpact in this area.
14 CONCORDIASI: Concluding remarks Both Concordiasi dropsonde and gondola information have a positive impact on forecast performanceDropsondes have a larger impact at high latitudes (inside Antarctic continent)Large impact of dropsonde wind observations at high levels, of temperature information at lower levels14
15 Messages for THORPEX Became TS Joyce TS Isaac The system on the left is Tropical Storm Isaac (viewed ~1530z) and the system on the right (~1400z) has a very high probability of developing into a tropical storm in the next day or so. SeeTS Isaac15
16 Private industry to supply hyperspectral data Private industry to supply hyperspectral data? GeoMetWatch, a US CompanyPrivately owned commercial data provider offers “STORM” leveraging GIFTS technology developmentOct 2010: Licensed by US Dept. of Commerce for hyper- spectral data collection at 6 sites around the world (under the US Remote Sensing Act of 2003)Promises to restore critical data for severe weather forecasting cancelled from GOES-R and much more at a fraction of the cost, in record time!Potential Customers: US, top sovereign governments world-wide, and & commercial enterprises16
17 3. New and future AMVs/products: Closing the gap with Leo/Geo winds Composites of GOES, Meteosat, FY-2, MTSAT, AVHRR, MODISAVHRR: Metop A, NOAA- 15, 16, 18, 19MODIS: Terra and AquaTracking clouds in infrared window channel, accounting for:Variable pixel timeParallax
18 3. New and future AMVs/products: Closing the gap with Leo/Geo winds Impact of Leo/Geo winds: NRL superobbed winds in NASA GMAO GEOS-5Courtesy of Dagmar Merkova and Ron Gelaro
19 Messages for THORPEXResearch satellites/instruments can be valuable as operational data providers, but can fail suddenly without backups (e.g. ENVISAT, AMSR-E are recent examples)Satellite data contributions to the GOS by nations increasing (e.g. FY-3, Oceansat-2), to hopefully help fill future gapsNew privately funded initiatives to provide satellite dataImpact of satellite data in medium range NWP is dominant in many advanced DA systemsResearch underway to extend/improve use of advanced IR sounders (cloudy rads, use PCs, more data over land etc.)19
20 Distribution of gobal ASAP soundings 2010 [input from ASAP report at SOT-VI meeting 2011, author: Rudolf Krockauer, chairperson ASAP Task Team]6011 Snd. on the GTS82% E-ASAP fleet7% RV Polarstern11% All other (mainly Japanese ships)Note: Soundings over East Europe are due to longitude errors3. Performance, Slide 14/30
21 E-SURFMAR Drifting Buoys The number of operating buoys significantly dropped in This was mainly due to a decrease in lifetime of Iridium buoys deployed inSince June 2012 the number of operating buoys has been increasing again.Problems with short buoy lifetimes seem having been fixed.The E-SURFMAR design study (2004) recommended 175 drifting buoys.
22 Observational issuesTransition to BUFR for radiosondes provides new opportunitiesTAMDAR Water Vapour AIREPS increasingGlobal provision of GPS total zenith delay dataFurther delay in ESA wind lidarGEO-LEO AMVs proving beneficial should become operationalCommon format for rain radar data.To improve estimates of solid precipitation and develop guidance on the accuracy and temporal resolution of solid precipitation parameters.New observations needed for convective-scale models22
23 Differences between operational analyses 23Quantify the uncertainty (differences) in current operational analyses of the atmosphere – height, temperature, windsConsider implications of analysis uncertainty for NWP and plans for the future global observing networkAnalysis differences are a proxy for actual analysis error, which cannot be precisely quantified
24 300mb wind speed (2010) GFS / ECMWF differences Root-Mean Square of Analysis Differences: 300mb Wind Speed24Langland and Maue 20112010Note the very significant effect of in-situ wind observations:Radiosondes and Commercial Aircraft201120092008ms-1
25 Radiosonde stations on the budget chopping block Example: Eareckson Air Station (Shemya)25Langland and Maue 2011GFS | ECMWF Root mean square difference of analyzed 300mb wind speed: July 2009 – June 2011Shemya IslandMarch 2012: NRL received a message from NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability), that NOAA was trying to convince USAF not to end soundings at station Previously in 2008, soundings were reduced to one per-day (12UTC). This station is in top 10% world-wide for error reduction (NRL study).70414ms-1Uncertainty in atmospheric upper-tropospheric wind analyses is substantially lower in locations where radiosonde data is provided. The blue-shaded areas are locations where raobs provide soundings twice-daily (00z and 12z). Station provides data only at 12z, so the associated reduction in analysis error at that location is mitigated, but still significant.
26 Analysis spread, 250 hPa u component Large differencesin estimates ofzonal wind alongequator.In initializingglobal ensemblepredictions, arewe accountingfor this sort ofanalysisuncertainty?
27 Power spectra of ensemble perturbations, NCEP ensemble Suggests this NCEP perturbation ensemble have insufficient power at planetary scales.This is consistent with the assumption made in the ETR that the analysis is unbiased whileanalyses between different centers suggest there is bias.(2) NCEP’s underestimate of initial amplitude is the least for the small baroclinic scales.This may be because the breeding method inside the ETR generates perturbationsthat project onto the (finite amplitude) Lyapunov vectors, dominated by baroclinic scales.
28 Aerosol assimilation case Study: Severe weather April 27th, 2011 (Huntsville tornado) MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) shows significant aerosol loading over Gulf within warm sector of stormRAQMS surface Black and Organic Carbon (BCOC) analysis shows highly elevated aerosolsRAQMS used to initialize and provide lateral boundary conditions for 4km WRF-CHEM with explicit (MOSAIC) aerosol/cloud interaction26th27th28thAeronet AOD LouisianaWRF-ChemOBS
29 Case Study: Severe weather April 27th, 2011 (Huntsville tornado) Inclusion of aerosol cloud interactions significantly impacts the predicted precipitation distribution and improves forecast over Huntsville, ALSPC 12hr precip and tornado tracks valid 06Z on April 28, 2011WRF no aerosolsWRF-CHEM simulations conducted by Pablo Saide in collaboration with Greg Carmichael and Scott Spak (U-Iowa)WRF-Chem + RAQMS BC
31 Ensemble-variational with Integrated Lanczos (EVIL) Tom Auligne, NCAR Ensembles as used in data assimilation typically require a separate cycling of an ensemble methods such as an EnKF. To blend with variational, effectively two different assimilation methods must be run?Can the ensemble cycling be performed within the variational system itself?
34 Comparison with NCAR “DART” EnKF using WRF regional model EVIL can outperformEnKF method. Thestopping criteriawhen applying theiterated Lanczosalgorithm controlshow much spreadreduction is applied(i.e., prevents possibleoverfitting to noisydata).
36 Actions from DAOS-5 Carried forward from DAOS 4 DAOS 5 New Actions Action 4-3: All DAOS members to provide recommendations on links to data monitoring sites and to other field campaign sites of interest.Action 4-4: Consider organising future DAOS “back to back” with the MWFR meeting as a workshop (Co-Chairs/D. Barker).Action 4-8: The DAOS WG should consider taking a leading role in organising the next WMO DA symposiumDAOS 5 New ActionsAction 5-1: DAOS-WG members to assess if they have any observations or model outputs to contribute to the four high-impact precipitation African RC case studies:E. Africa October Oct ; S. Africa Nov ; N. Africa Nov ; W. Africa Sept36
37 Actions from DAOS-5Action 5-2: Submit peer review paper on 2010/11 ECMWF WSR impact study (T. Hamill, S. Majumdar & C. Cardinali)Action 5-3: Submit BAMS paper on targeting (S. Majumdar)Action 5-4: Look at observation sensitivities and possibly run a short OSE for Jan 2012 period where dropsondes had a sustained high impact in the GMAO system (R. Gelaro and C. Cardinali)Action 5-5. The terminology for adjoint sensitivity impacts should be discussed and agreed (Ron Gelaro and Carla Cardinali)Action 5-6: The USA and Europe are encouraged to liaise concerning the issue of wider exchange of GPS data (R. Saunders with Z. Toth)37
38 Actions from DAOS-5 Action 5-7: The working group recommends to NOAA that GEO-LEO AMVs are made available to NWP centres in BUFR. Action 5-8: GMAO to continue to investigate why the NRL GOES AMVs give more impact than the operational AMVs and report at the next meeting. (R. Gelaro)Action 5-9: A DAOS representative to attend CBS workshop on radar data exchange in Exeter in Nov 12 (R. Saunders)Action 5-10: The working group recommends to NOAA that the successor to CrIS provides the contiguous infrared spectrum to users to maximise the information content for assimilation in NWP and climate. A reduction in the field of view should also be considered for maximising clear sky scenes. 38
39 Actions from DAOS-5Action 5-11: Circulate a proposal for a common terminology for hybrid ensemble variational methods and circulate it to DAOS and WGNE for comment. (A. Lorenc)Action 5-12: The co-chairs to request approval of the changes to DAOS-WG membership as outlined in the report to ICSC-10. (Co-Chairs) . 39
40 Actions from ICSC-9Action 8: The USA and Europe are encouraged to liaise concerning the issue of wider exchange of GPS total zenith delay data (with Zoltan Toth)Action 9: Maintain close links with EGOS on evolution of the GOS and definition of optimum networkAction 10: The ICSC encouraged DAOS to consider DA for convective scale models.Action 15: All THORPEX WGs to examine how they can further develop activities to assist the African RC40
41 Current proposed membership Tom Hamill(D),Co-chair NASA, USARoger Saunders(O),Co-chair Met Office, UKStefan Klink(O)DWD, GermanyCarla Cardinali(D)ECMWFChris Velden(O)Univ Wisconsin-CIMSS, USARon Gelaro(D)NOAA, USATom Keenan(O)CAWCR, AustraliaRolf Langland(D)NRL, USABertrand Calpini (O)MeteoSwiss, SwitzerlandAndrew Lorenc(D) MetOffice, UKFlorence Rabier(D/O) Météo-FranceProf. Bin Wang(D), Chinese Academy of Sciences, ChinaMichael Tsyroulnikov(D) HydroMet Centre, RussiaMark Buehner (D)Environment CanadaSharan Majumdar (D)RSMAS, Univ Miami, USADarryl Kleist(D), NCEP, USANeeds approval by ICSC O=Observations D=Data Assimilation
42 DAOS-WG Future Meetings Propose to hold next dedicated DAOS-WG meeting in 2014Location TBD (probably Europe)Allow more time for discussions (fewer/shorter presentations)Co-ordinate next WMO Data Assimilation Symposium in Late 201342
43 DAOS-WG Future (1) Recognised as leading group for DA in WMO Acknowledged by WGNE which has less focus on DA.Strong links with ET-EGOS, MWFR, ….DAOS remains a global focus not mesoscale 1 day to seasonal timescalesJoint meeting with MFWR under discussionContinue mix of Observations and DA43
44 DAOS-WG Future (2)Membership to evolve but size of group remains about the sameProposal is for DAOS-WG to become a sub-group in WWRPStrong links would be retained with any THORPEX-Follow-On projectICSC invited to comment44