1. Report from DAOS-WG
Roger Saunders and Tom Hamill with input from WG members 1

2. Overview Highlights from Madison meeting
Actions from Madison and ICSC9
WG Matters (membership, meetings)
Future of DAOS 2

3. Mission statement
To achieve its mission the DAOS WG, in collaboration with the CBS OPAG-IOS:
Addresses Data Assimilation issues including the development of improved understanding of the sources and growth of errors in analyses and forecasts
Promotes research activities that lead to a better use of observations and the understanding of their value
Provides input and guidance for THORPEX regional campaigns for the deployment of observations to achieve scientific objectives.

4. DAOS-5 WG meeting Madison, 19-20 Sep 2012
Update on targeting
Updates on THORPEX field campaigns
Review observing systems
Review developments in data assimilation
WG matters

5. Targeted Observations
Plan to submit a thinned
version to BAMS during 2013.
2. Analysis of WSR 2010/11
cases
3. WSR 2011/12 case

6. ESRL
Impact of Targeted Dropsonde Data on Mid-latitude Numerical Weather Forecasts during the 2011 Winter Storms Reconnaissance Program
Presented by Tom Hamill
Forecasts and assimilations : Carla Cardinali, ECMWF
Data analysis : Fanglin Yang, NCEP
also: Sharanya Majumdar, RSMAS, U. Miami
Question: will assimilation of mid-latitude dropsonde data have as large an impact as previously shown, given denser observation network, better assimilation systems and models?

7. 2010/11 WSR campaign

8. Scatterplot of impacts
For each case where
dropsondes were launched, a downstream target location and verification time are identified. Data are
plotted here only for these
times/target locations.
Verification area here is a +/- 10 degree box centered on target. Verification norm is an approximation to the
total-energy norm.
Cases above line indicate benefit from targeted data.
No obvious beneficial
impact.

9. Selecting target locations for tropical cyclones: SV/adjoint vs
Selecting target locations for tropical cyclones: SV/adjoint vs. ETKF Brett Hoover (Univ Wisconsin)
SV/adjoint guidance = strictly based on dynamics of perturbation growth. Suggests target locations around cyclone.
ETKF guidance = estimates reduction of forecast error variance as a result of assimilation at given location based on linear mappings between ensemble forecast perturbations and analysis perturbations. Suggests target locations also along jet stream, commonly in ridges N of TC. These affect cyclone steering.

10. Summary of targeting
Clear benefits of targeted observations for TC forecasts.
In study with 4D-Var assimilation & ECMWF model, little impact seen for mid-latitude systems (2011 WSR).
Targeting’s future:
Global observational network design: use targeting strategies to adaptively select / thin satellite data for assimilation?
Potential to adapt targeting concepts to work in concert with rapidly adaptable observational resources, e.g., cloud-drift winds from rapid-scan imagery. But: need quick, efficient algorithms.

11. Concordiasi = CONCORDIA-IASI
A French-US initiative for climate / meteorology over Antarctica
Improve the use of space-borne atmospheric sounders over polar regions, in particular IASI on board MetOp
Benefit from the continental French-Italian station
Concordia 11

12. Analysis Uncertainty, 45°S to 70°S
Analysis differences: observational gap leads to large differences off Antarctica
To the north: Geostationary satellite winds, ship surface obs, commercial aircraft routes
To the south: Antarctic raobs and land surface data, MODIS and AVHRR winds
Winds
AMSU/
MHS
Conventional

13. Observation impact diagnostics, Meteo-France, NASA-GMAO, ECMWF, NRL (obs south of 60 S)
NRL AMVs includes LEO-GEO winds, and these
have a big positive
impact in this area.

14. CONCORDIASI: Concluding remarks
Both Concordiasi dropsonde and gondola information have a positive impact on forecast performance
Dropsondes have a larger impact at high latitudes (inside Antarctic continent)
Large impact of dropsonde wind observations at high levels, of temperature information at lower levels 14

15. Messages for THORPEX Became TS Joyce TS Isaac
The system on the left is Tropical Storm Isaac (viewed ~1530z) and the system on the right (~1400z) has a very high probability of developing into a tropical storm in the next day or so. See
TS Isaac 15

16. Private industry to supply hyperspectral data
Private industry to supply hyperspectral data? GeoMetWatch, a US Company
Privately owned commercial data provider offers “STORM” leveraging GIFTS technology development
Oct 2010: Licensed by US Dept. of Commerce for hyper- spectral data collection at 6 sites around the world (under the US Remote Sensing Act of 2003)
Promises to restore critical data for severe weather forecasting cancelled from GOES-R and much more at a fraction of the cost, in record time!
Potential Customers: US, top sovereign governments world-wide, and & commercial enterprises 16

17. 3. New and future AMVs/products: Closing the gap with Leo/Geo winds
Composites of GOES, Meteosat, FY-2, MTSAT, AVHRR, MODIS
AVHRR: Metop A, NOAA- 15, 16, 18, 19
MODIS: Terra and Aqua
Tracking clouds in infrared window channel, accounting for:
Variable pixel time
Parallax

18. 3. New and future AMVs/products: Closing the gap with Leo/Geo winds
Impact of Leo/Geo winds: NRL superobbed winds in NASA GMAO GEOS-5
Courtesy of Dagmar Merkova and Ron Gelaro

19. Messages for THORPEX
Research satellites/instruments can be valuable as operational data providers, but can fail suddenly without backups (e.g. ENVISAT, AMSR-E are recent examples)
Satellite data contributions to the GOS by nations increasing (e.g. FY-3, Oceansat-2), to hopefully help fill future gaps
New privately funded initiatives to provide satellite data
Impact of satellite data in medium range NWP is dominant in many advanced DA systems
Research underway to extend/improve use of advanced IR sounders (cloudy rads, use PCs, more data over land etc.) 19

20. Distribution of gobal ASAP soundings 2010 [input from ASAP report at SOT-VI meeting 2011, author: Rudolf Krockauer, chairperson ASAP Task Team]
6011 Snd. on the GTS
82% E-ASAP fleet
7% RV Polarstern
11% All other (mainly Japanese ships)
Note: Soundings over East Europe are due to longitude errors
3. Performance, Slide 14/30

21. E-SURFMAR Drifting Buoys
The number of operating buoys significantly dropped in This was mainly due to a decrease in lifetime of Iridium buoys deployed in
Since June 2012 the number of operating buoys has been increasing again.
Problems with short buoy lifetimes seem having been fixed.
The E-SURFMAR design study (2004) recommended 175 drifting buoys.

22. Observational issues
Transition to BUFR for radiosondes provides new opportunities
TAMDAR Water Vapour AIREPS increasing
Global provision of GPS total zenith delay data
Further delay in ESA wind lidar
GEO-LEO AMVs proving beneficial should become operational
Common format for rain radar data.
To improve estimates of solid precipitation and develop guidance on the accuracy and temporal resolution of solid precipitation parameters.
New observations needed for convective-scale models 22

23. Differences between operational analyses23
Quantify the uncertainty (differences) in current operational analyses of the atmosphere – height, temperature, winds
Consider implications of analysis uncertainty for NWP and plans for the future global observing network
Analysis differences are a proxy for actual analysis error, which cannot be precisely quantified

24. 300mb wind speed (2010) GFS / ECMWF differences
Root-Mean Square of Analysis Differences: 300mb Wind Speed 24
Langland and Maue 2011
2010
Note the very significant effect of in-situ wind observations:
Radiosondes and Commercial Aircraft
2011
2009
2008
ms-1

25. Radiosonde stations on the budget chopping block
Example: Eareckson Air Station (Shemya) 25
Langland and Maue 2011
GFS | ECMWF Root mean square difference of analyzed 300mb wind speed: July 2009 – June 2011
Shemya Island
March 2012: NRL received a message from NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability), that NOAA was trying to convince USAF not to end soundings at station Previously in 2008, soundings were reduced to one per-day (12UTC). This station is in top 10% world-wide for error reduction (NRL study).
70414
ms-1
Uncertainty in atmospheric upper-tropospheric wind analyses is substantially lower in locations where radiosonde data is provided. The blue-shaded areas are locations where raobs provide soundings twice-daily (00z and 12z). Station provides data only at 12z, so the associated reduction in analysis error at that location is mitigated, but still significant.

26. Analysis spread, 250 hPa u component
Large differences
in estimates of
zonal wind along
equator.
In initializing
global ensemble
predictions, are
we accounting
for this sort of
analysis
uncertainty?

27. Power spectra of ensemble perturbations, NCEP ensemble
Suggests this NCEP perturbation ensemble have insufficient power at planetary scales.
This is consistent with the assumption made in the ETR that the analysis is unbiased while
analyses between different centers suggest there is bias.
(2) NCEP’s underestimate of initial amplitude is the least for the small baroclinic scales.
This may be because the breeding method inside the ETR generates perturbations
that project onto the (finite amplitude) Lyapunov vectors, dominated by baroclinic scales.

28. Aerosol assimilation case Study: Severe weather April 27th, 2011 (Huntsville tornado)
MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) shows significant aerosol loading over Gulf within warm sector of storm
RAQMS surface Black and Organic Carbon (BCOC) analysis shows highly elevated aerosols
RAQMS used to initialize and provide lateral boundary conditions for 4km WRF-CHEM with explicit (MOSAIC) aerosol/cloud interaction
26th
27th
28th
Aeronet AOD Louisiana
WRF-Chem
OBS

29. Case Study: Severe weather April 27th, 2011 (Huntsville tornado)
Inclusion of aerosol cloud interactions significantly impacts the predicted precipitation distribution and improves forecast over Huntsville, AL
SPC 12hr precip and tornado tracks valid 06Z on April 28, 2011
WRF no aerosols
WRF-CHEM simulations conducted by Pablo Saide in collaboration with Greg Carmichael and Scott Spak (U-Iowa)
WRF-Chem + RAQMS BC

31. Ensemble-variational with Integrated Lanczos (EVIL) Tom Auligne, NCAR
Ensembles as used in data assimilation typically require a separate cycling of an ensemble methods such as an EnKF. To blend with variational, effectively two different assimilation methods must be run?
Can the ensemble cycling be performed within the variational system itself?

34. Comparison with NCAR “DART” EnKF using WRF regional model
EVIL can outperform
EnKF method. The
stopping criteria
when applying the
iterated Lanczos
algorithm controls
how much spread
reduction is applied
(i.e., prevents possible
overfitting to noisy
data).

35. Data Assimilation Terminology Suggestions based on usual current usage.
“hybrid” applies to covariance, not method. E.g. “hybrid 4D-Var”  blend of stationary, ensemble-estimated covariances used in 4D-Var EnKF, ETKF, etc. acronyms indicate method of updating ensembles 3D-Var, 4D-Var, EnVar, etc. generate a single best estimate, unless specified e.g. “An ensemble of 4D-Vars” 4D-Var always uses a forecast model and adjoint to generate time−covariances 4D-EnVar, 4DEnKF, etc. use the ensemble to generate time−covariances. (The 4D may be omitted) — in 4D-Var, 3D-Var was standardised by Ide et al 1997 (and QJ), but not elsewhere. It may be omitted in new names.
© Crown copyright Met Office Andrew Lorenc ECMWF Seminar

36. Actions from DAOS-5 Carried forward from DAOS 4 DAOS 5 New Actions
 Action 4-3: All DAOS members to provide recommendations on links to data monitoring sites and to other field campaign sites of interest.
Action 4-4: Consider organising future DAOS “back to back” with the MWFR meeting as a workshop (Co-Chairs/D. Barker).
Action 4-8: The DAOS WG should consider taking a leading role in organising the next WMO DA symposium
DAOS 5 New Actions
Action 5-1: DAOS-WG members to assess if they have any observations or model outputs to contribute to the four high-impact precipitation African RC case studies:
E. Africa October Oct ; S. Africa Nov ; N. Africa Nov ; W. Africa Sept 36

37. Actions from DAOS-5
Action 5-2: Submit peer review paper on 2010/11 ECMWF WSR impact study (T. Hamill, S. Majumdar & C. Cardinali)
Action 5-3: Submit BAMS paper on targeting (S. Majumdar)
Action 5-4: Look at observation sensitivities and possibly run a short OSE for Jan 2012 period where dropsondes had a sustained high impact in the GMAO system (R. Gelaro and C. Cardinali)
Action 5-5. The terminology for adjoint sensitivity impacts should be discussed and agreed (Ron Gelaro and Carla Cardinali)
Action 5-6: The USA and Europe are encouraged to liaise concerning the issue of wider exchange of GPS data (R. Saunders with Z. Toth) 37

38. Actions from DAOS-5
 Action 5-7: The working group recommends to NOAA that GEO-LEO AMVs are made available to NWP centres in BUFR.  
Action 5-8: GMAO to continue to investigate why the NRL GOES AMVs give more impact than the operational AMVs and report at the next meeting. (R. Gelaro)
Action 5-9: A DAOS representative to attend CBS workshop on radar data exchange in Exeter in Nov 12 (R. Saunders)
Action 5-10: The working group recommends to NOAA that the successor to CrIS provides the contiguous infrared spectrum to users to maximise the information content for assimilation in NWP and climate. A reduction in the field of view should also be considered for maximising clear sky scenes.  38

39. Actions from DAOS-5
Action 5-11: Circulate a proposal for a common terminology for hybrid ensemble variational methods and circulate it to DAOS and WGNE for comment. (A. Lorenc)
Action 5-12: The co-chairs to request approval of the changes to DAOS-WG membership as outlined in the report to ICSC-10. (Co-Chairs) .  39

40. Actions from ICSC-9
Action 8: The USA and Europe are encouraged to liaise concerning the issue of wider exchange of GPS total zenith delay data (with Zoltan Toth)
Action 9: Maintain close links with EGOS on evolution of the GOS and definition of optimum network
Action 10: The ICSC encouraged DAOS to consider DA for convective scale models.
Action 15: All THORPEX WGs to examine how they can further develop activities to assist the African RC 40

41. Current proposed membership
Tom Hamill(D),
Co-chair NASA, USA
Roger Saunders(O),
Co-chair Met Office, UK
Stefan Klink(O)
DWD, Germany
Carla Cardinali(D)
ECMWF
Chris Velden(O)
Univ Wisconsin-CIMSS, USA
Ron Gelaro(D)
NOAA, USA
Tom Keenan(O)
CAWCR, Australia
Rolf Langland(D)
NRL, USA
Bertrand Calpini (O)
MeteoSwiss, Switzerland
Andrew Lorenc(D) MetOffice, UK
Florence Rabier(D/O) Météo-France
Prof. Bin Wang(D), Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Michael Tsyroulnikov(D) HydroMet Centre, Russia
Mark Buehner (D)
Environment Canada
Sharan Majumdar (D)
RSMAS, Univ Miami, USA
Darryl Kleist(D), NCEP, USA
Needs approval by ICSC O=Observations D=Data Assimilation

42. DAOS-WG Future Meetings
Propose to hold next dedicated DAOS-WG meeting in 2014
Location TBD (probably Europe)
Allow more time for discussions (fewer/shorter presentations)
Co-ordinate next WMO Data Assimilation Symposium in Late 2013 42

43. DAOS-WG Future (1) Recognised as leading group for DA in WMO
Acknowledged by WGNE which has less focus on DA.
Strong links with ET-EGOS, MWFR, ….
DAOS remains a global focus not mesoscale 1 day to seasonal timescales
Joint meeting with MFWR under discussion
Continue mix of Observations and DA 43

44. DAOS-WG Future (2)
Membership to evolve but size of group remains about the same
Proposal is for DAOS-WG to become a sub-group in WWRP
Strong links would be retained with any THORPEX-Follow-On project
ICSC invited to comment 44