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Ralph Mucerino Chief Distribution Officer Senior Vice President Global Commercial Insurance June 18, 2012 Strategies for Global Growth IIS 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Ralph Mucerino Chief Distribution Officer Senior Vice President Global Commercial Insurance June 18, 2012 Strategies for Global Growth IIS 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Ralph Mucerino Chief Distribution Officer Senior Vice President Global Commercial Insurance June 18, 2012 Strategies for Global Growth IIS 2012

2 2 Macro GDP Trends Source: Bain & Company: The Great Eight Trillion Dollar Trends. International Monetary Fund; Bain MTG Analysis, 2011 Note: All values shown in 2010 US dollars at fixed exchange rates. Per Bain report, world GDP expected to be ~90T in 2020 GDP Growth Driver 2010–2020 Contribution to Global GDP Growth (Total = $27T) Next Billion Consumers Energy, Natural Resources, Commodities, Infrastructure Social Infrastructure / Human Capital Other Advanced Economies Developing Countries Nearly 60% of GDP growth over the next decade will come from developing world macro-drivers and by 2020, developing economies will account for more than 50% of world GDP

3 3 The next billion consumers – Consumer, SME, DM 1.3 bn new consumers (HH income > $5K) generated in this decade Real GDP per capita progression (USD thousands) 3% CAGR 8% CAGR 5% CAGR 12% CAGR 2% CAGR (1) F In the coming decade 37% of global demand will be driven by consumer spending and the new middle class in developing markets Source: Euromonitor, Bain MTG Analysis 2011. Notes: (1) Simple average of US, Japan, and UK

4 4 Global Growth Opportunity Source: 2010 GDP and 2011–2020 Non-Life Premium CAGR per Business Monitor International data and includes health insurance premiums. 2010 Non-Life Penetration per AIG Global Economics and is consumer lines and commercial lines premiums as a percentage of GDP Size denotes $1T in 2010 GDPChartis Growth Countries Unmet Insurance Needs Growth Potential 2010 Non-Life Insurance Penetration Asia and Latin America represent the highest growth opportunity areas over the coming decade, based on high GDP growth and low insurance penetration Non-Life Premium Growth (CAGR 2011 – 2020)

5 5 Key Growth Economies Profit Drivers Relative Growth vs Profitability – By Country and By Line A&H Traditional Commercial Specialty Commercial Auto Consumer All Other = $100mm of 2016 NPW (1) Notes: (1) Currently, foreign insurers are excluded from the Chinese auto market; therefore, 2011-2016 NPW CAGR is not meaningful. For illustrative purposes, 2011 – 2016 NPW CAGR is set to 100%. Internal forecasts of MTPL rule change in 4Q 2012 with auto premiums written starting 1Q 2013 and growing to $156 mm of 2016 NPW. *Products with < $50 mm 2016 NPW excluded from Chart* (1) Increasing Profitability (2016) 5-Year Premium Growth Chartis Products Strategy

6 6 China

7 7 China P&C Insurance Market GPW (3) (1) 2010 CIRC Year Book for 2009 data of auto and non-auto breakdown; 2010 FY data not available until CYE 2011 (2) CIRC statistics 2010 (3) Historical GPW from CIRC statistics; projected GPW by AIG Global Economics (4) CIRC 2010 Report on Insurance Intermediary Market; Definitions: Sideline agent-part-time agent not involved in the insurance sales (e.g. banks, travel, post-office, railway, auto dealer); Captive Agent-company employees; Corporate Agent-professional insurance agent company China is a heavily concentrated auto (72%) dominated insurance market growing rapidly due to internal consumption, exports and infrastructure, with minimal foreign presence (~1%). It relies heavily on agency distribution and is highly regulated China P&C Insurance Market Overview 20 P&C GPWPenetration 2009 Total GPW: US$44Bn 30%

8 8 Key strategies have been built to meet the market opportunities Chartis China Strategic Initiatives Opportunities: 485 million internet users in 2011 (1) Travel market: 15% CAGR Auto market size: 150 million vehicles by 2015 (2) Middle class: 700 million by 2020 (1) Source: China 2011, June CNNIC report. (2) Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China. (3) Source: China Ministry of Commerce In 2010, net FDI inflows US$106 billion with a growth rate of 17.4% (2) ODI $59 billion USD in 2010 (3)

9 9 Brazil

10 10 Brazil’s insurance market is maturing and more balanced than other SBE countries due to commodities and infrastructure. It is heavily dominated by banking groups, often partnering with foreign global insurance groups, who distribute via bank and agency channels Brazil Overview Brazilian Insurance Market* Revenue – 41% of the Market is Auto *Market excludes pensions Source: Susep. *Consumer + Commercial Lines, 7/10 – 6/11 (Ex-Auto) Commercial Lines

11 11 Opportunities: Chartis Brazil Strategic Initiatives Mobile phone users: 110M Internet users: 74M 2010 GDP Growth: 6.5% Over $1T planned investments to 2020 Population of ~191M people and middle class ~50% by 2015 Host of 2014 World Cup Host of 2016 Olympic Games Source: eMarketers and IBGE 2010

12 12 Mexico

13 13 Mexico P&C Insurance Market GPW (USD 000’s) (1) Mexico P&C Insurance Market Overview Source: Insurance Market from AMIS (Asociación Mexicana de Instituciones de Seguros 2010). GDP figures from World Bank. Distribution Channel breakdown per AXCO 2011 Mexico non-life report. (1) Includes one-time Pemex contract Mexico is a fragmented auto (53%) dominated insurance market, with close links and correlation to the US GDP, with strong foreign and bank presence which relies heavily on brokers and agents

14 14 Chartis Mexico Strategic Initiatives Total insurance market is $20Bn (P&C $7.4Bn) Expected to grow 4% annually Highly effective and well regarded local Regulator GDP growth expected of 5% on 2011 and 4.5% on 2012 Growing Middle Class (31% of total population of 112.3) Government improving infrastructure making Mexico more attractive for foreign direct investment 10 year Internet user growth 600% (35M on 2010) Opportunities:


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