Presentation on theme: "International interconnection: Part 1: Trends in international telecom traffic Dr Tim Kelly, International Telecommunication Union (ITU) SSGRR, LAquila,"— Presentation transcript:
International interconnection: Part 1: Trends in international telecom traffic Dr Tim Kelly, International Telecommunication Union (ITU) SSGRR, LAquila, 26 Oct 1999 Note: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership. Dr Tim Kelly can be contacted by at
International Interconnect: A series of three lectures Part 1: Trends in international traffic Part 2: Managing the transition from revenue- sharing to cost-orientation Part 3: The Internet changes everything
3 Intl Interconnect: 1. Traffic Trends Agenda Trends in international traffic Steady growth in voice traffic Higher percentage originating from mobiles Explosive growth of Internet traffic Regional breakdown of traffic Market shares Competitive markets Telecom Italias international position ITU/TeleGeography Direction of Traffic publication
'000 1' Fixed lines and mobile subscribers worldwide (millions) Billions of minutes of international telephone traffic Fixed main lines Mobile subscribers Total int'l traffic Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes. Trends in international traffic minutes (billions)
Domestic fixed- line revenues, 59.3% International revenues, 8.9% Mobile service revenues, 21.2% Other (incl. Internet, leased lines, telex), 10.6% 1998 Telecom service revenue. Total = US$724bn The changing pie: Global telecom service revenue, 1998 Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1999: Mobile cellular
Service revenue (US$ bn) Projection of revenue growth (US$bn) '000 Tele-com Tele-com Tele-com 2003 ActualProjected Other (e.g., Internet, leased lines, telex) Mobile service revenues International Domestic fixed-line service revenues Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1999: Mobile cellular
Growth trends: fixed-lines, mobilephones and estimated Internet users, millions Note:Columns show actual and projected users at end of year. Source: ITU '000 1' Fixed-line telephones Mobilephones Estimated Internet users
100 years of telephones ' Fixed Mobile '000 1'500 2' Fixed Mobile Log scale: Normal scale: Source: ITU, World Telecommunication Development Report: Mobile Cellular 1999.
Internet outgrowing voice Hongkong SAR, April98-July99, Minutes of user per month, 000s '000 1' Dial-up Internet (via PSTN) Int'l voice/fax (in + out) Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes.
Trends in call volume, Deutsche Telekom, % 36.0% 86.3% -2.1%-7.1% Domestic long- distance Int'l outgoing calls Local callsCalls to mobile networks Calls to Internet (T- Online) Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes.
Europe, 68.0% North America, 16.8% Asia-Pacific, 9.7% LAC, 3.6% Africa, 1.9% Regional share of International traffic, 1983 By origin, total = 10.2 billion minutes Europe, 43.0% North America, 32.5% Asia-Pacific, 18.5% LAC, 4.1% Africa, 1.9% Regional share of intl traffic, 1997 By origin, total = 81.8 billion minutes Changing regional shares of global international traffic, 1983 & 1997 Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes.
21.7% 21.6% 17.1% 16.1% 16.0% 12.3% N. America Asia-Pacific LAC World Africa Europe Compound annual growth rates in outgoing traffic,
Trends in outgoing traffic, bn minutes Developed countries Developing countries Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes.
Trends in incoming traffic, bn minutes Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes Developed countries Developing countries
Top 10 PTOs by outgoing intl traffic Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes.
1.1% 21.2% 0.6% 2.2% -14.3% -16.4% -17.3% -2.7% BT FT Sprint MCI WorldCom AT&T Telecom Italia SwissCom DT 4.5% 9.7% 0.5% 8.2% 5.9% -2.9% -2.1% 17.6% % change in traffic % change in intl rev. Selected PTOs, performance 1997/98 Note:Based on 1998 international outgoing traffic and revenue from international operations. For Sprint, MCI WorldCom and AT&T, data relates to The definition of international revenue (gross, net or retail) is tat used by each individual operator. Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes.
Note:Traffic shares relate to minutes of outgoing traffic from members of each alliance. Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic, 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes AT&T/BT, 17.2% GlobalOne, 14.3% MCI WorldCom, Telefonica, TP, 11.1% Cable & Wireless, 4.7% Others, 47.3% Total, 1997: 81.2 bn minutes Unisource, 5.4% Emerging global alliances, shares of intl traffic market
18 Intl Interconnect: 1. Traffic Trends Emerging global alliances: Recent developments WorldCom merges with MCI. Following collapse of BT/MCI merger, BT & AT&T join forces in Concert AT&T and Telefonica withdraw from Unisource GlobalOne on point of collapse following purchase of Sprint by WorldCom Deutsche Telekoms bid for Telecom Italia fails; Olivettis succeeds Cable & Wireless re-positioning itself as supplier of data services Telia and TeleNor merge
35% 46% 74% 85% Mono- poly Compe- tition Number of countries permitting more than one operator for international telephony Percentage of outgoing international traffic open to competition Note: Analysis is based on WTO Basic Telecommunications Commitments and thus presents a minimum level of traffic likely to be open to competitive service provision. Source: ITU, WTO.
Level of competition in international services in WTO basic telecoms agreement Competition Monopoly Source: ITU Telecommunication Regulatory Database.
1'799 2'193 2'470 2'288 2'554 2'511 2'589 2'605 2'018 1' ForecastActual Telecom Italia, revenues from intl calls In Billion Lire Source: Telecom Italia. Forecasts from Salomon Smith Barney.
Fixed charges, 20.7% Domestic calls, 34.5% International calls, 6.2% Mobile, 22.1% Equpt. 5.3% Other 11.2% Fixed charges, 21.5% Domestic calls, 39.7% International calls, 4.8% Mobile, 37.0% Equpt. 6.4% Other 9.0% Telecom Italia, revenues breakdown In Billion Lire billion Lire billion Lire Source: Telecom Italia. Forecasts from Salomon Smith Barney.
25 Intl Interconnect: 1. Traffic Trends International traffic trends: Conclusions Voice traffic continuing to grow, but the main action is now elsewhere Mobile and the Internet will be the major demand drivers for the future Competitive markets will be the norm, monopolistic markets the exception in the future Alliances will continue to be formed, but partnerships are still unstable
For more information... Publication launch: 10 October 1999 (TELECOM 99) Available on paper and on- line (PDF format) Also available with database on CD-ROM Website: Other reports launched at TELECOM 99 World Telecom Development Report 1999: Mobile Cellular Trends in Telecom Reform 1999: Convergence & Regulation Internet for Development (updated with latest data)